governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation
High growth generates the comfort of public unwillingness to look a gift horse in the mouth. When growth is more than double the global levels and the highest achieved by any comparator entity, there are even fewer quibbles. This is true for both startups and national economies. Both are subject to “analyst fog” about an […]
Read More Interim Budget 2024-25: Government a prisoner of over-reachBOOK REVIEW India’s Finance Ministers A K Bhattacharya Penguin (Business)2023 435 pages, Rs 999/- Finance Ministers (FMs), despite their dour calling, do not always follow the bland, understated credo expected of them. This is one message in this carefully packaged, extensively researched tome on eleven, post-Independence, Indian FMs, till the Emergency in 1977. Three themes […]
Read More Finance ministers who ruled early, Post Independence IndiaMonetary policy that hunts with the advanced economy “hounds”—via symmetric upward adjustments in policy interest rates over the last year—and simultaneously runs with developing country “hares”—by desperately trying to revive stalling growth—has contradictions just waiting to come home to roost. That growth in India is stalling is clear from the RBI Monetary statement on 6 […]
Read More High Policy rates sans supporting fiscal policy cannot tame inflationAssociating budgetary allocations with cultural tropes is one way of validating them. Consider the case of two Indian states, joined at the hip till 1960 — Gujarat and Maharashtra. The origins of the 1960 split The port city of Surat in Gujarat was the entrepôt for Western India and the link with Arabia and beyond […]
Read More Culture drives how States Spend Public moneyState government performance is going to matter in the coming months of fiscal and economic stress. The national performance will depend in the near term, crucially, on how the better-performing states pull their weight. One criterion of state performance is the budget allocations for fiscal 2023-24 starting April 1st and the outlook on fiscal rectitude. […]
Read More Can flying geese-Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu-Power India’s growth with stability?In India, the Union government takes on a much broader fiscal mandate than is necessary. Some of this is driven by the constitutional allocation of tax mandates, which favor tax flows to the Union government. Nearly 20 per cent, on an average, of a state government’s revenue flows in a “waterfall arrangement” from the Centre […]
Read More Indian Economy: Reading the Tea LeavesOur garden is full of goodies come and get what you need. This is what Finance Minister Sitharaman conveyed to the people (and voters) of India in her 2023-24 budget speech. Adding to the ever deepening gift bag that the Modi administration has held out to voters since 2015, the budget not only slashed income […]
Read More Budget Bounties 2023-24Fifty-one countries have legislated a publicly financed Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) to provide unbiased analysis of public spending, forecast the economic outcomes thereof and review government performance versus fiscal rules (targets) to improve fiscal and financial stability. Supreme audit institutions (like the Comptroller and Auditor General in India) do this regularly ex post facto and […]
Read More A Fiscal Council for IndiaBetween spending and saving, governments are generally better at the former. High growth comes with the advantage that government revenue expands and gets spent, as is happening this fiscal. But this is also habit forming. If growth tapers down – as is expected in FY 2024- cutting back government spending will be politically rocky just […]
Read More Fiscal Options for Budget 2023-24Growth is slowing in India. In July to September this year there were six major economies- Malaysia, Greece, Philippines, Israel, Colombia, Argentina (The Economist December 1) with growth higher than the 6.3 percent India achieved in the April to September quarter of this fiscal. Growth by year end is unlikely to be vastly different. Is […]
Read More Indian Economy between A Rock and A Hard space
Opinion India 