It’s going to be a sombre Deepawali this year. If there were any doubts, the RBI Monetary Policy report of October 4 dispels them succinctly. Missing demand Global apprehensions abound around the policy and political uncertainty unleashed by the proxy war for access to markets between the US and China. Back home, slowing private demand […]Read More Its’ smart to stoke private demand
Tough reform decisions are best taken in times of grave crisis not when the going is good. Economic reform, at the best of times, is highly disruptive. It makes little political sense, in the real world, to throw away the benefits of a stable, growing economy, in the hope that the future would be brighter […]Read More BJP needs a consistent Economic Ideology
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman looked relaxed and happy while briefing the press in Panaji, Goa, on Friday about the proposed corporate tax reductions. Her estimate of the loss from the revenue foregone is Rs 1.45 trillion — equal to half the estimated defence expenditure this year. Normally, any FM under fiscal pressure would have mourned […]Read More Reform in driblets keeps the party going
Over-performance can, sometimes, be worse than under-performance. Going by privately shared opinions on why Vikram, the moon lander, crashed, was because the rockets supposed to decelerate its descent worked overly well, making it drift sideways instead of descending in an orderly manner — much like a skydiver thrown sideways off-target by a sudden high volume […]Read More Economy needs more than better branding
The first 100 days of the Modi 2.0 government have been marked by lows and highs. Sadly, the lows are longer lasting, while the highs are transient, even in the short term. The biggest low was the Budget for FY 2019-20 in July, which was presented, in the absence of the late Arun Jaitley, with […]Read More Modi 2.0 100 not out!
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman might well be already thinking of penning a book on how demand vanished the moment she assumed charge. She faces an uphill task and has to carry the ball of lax governance earlier. We have sat on collapsing real estate demand for the last decade without doing anything more substantive than to […]Read More Who moved my demand curve?
Even the political surgical strike “integrating” Kashmir failed to divert attention from the woes of investors, employees and entrepreneurs — all of whom are stuck with a similar malady: poor returns. Where has the fizz gone? Why has the fizz gone out of the economy? Two alternative viewpoints suggest themselves. One is the view fingering […]Read More Indian economy riding a roller coaster
The Union Budget proposal for a Sovereign Bond by India in the international markets might have come a cropper along with its “sherpa”, Subhash Garg, our former finance secretary. Why the rush? It was never apparent why the government chose to announce in the Budget speech this year, out of the blue, almost as […]Read More Sovereign Bond Issue in “thanda basta”
Budget FY 2020, tabled on July 5 in Parliament, unintentionally unleashed a “whodunnit” type mystery with serious downstream negative fiscal impacts. The snafu was spotted by eagle-eyed economists Ratin Roy, director of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, and Nitin Desai, a previous Chief Economic Advisor, within hours of the tabling of the […]Read More Budget 2019-20 “malfunction” spoils the show
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman made history merely by standing up to present the Union Budget on Friday — being India’s first full-time woman FM to do so. True to the forceful style of the BJP, she delivered the speech with zeal and conviction to the loud thumping of desks by the treasury benches with a […]Read More Nirmala Sitharaman hits all the right buttons for a balanced budget