One doesn’t quite know what it takes to win a Sveriges Riksbank Prize — instituted in 2006 in Memory of Alfred Nobel — in the Economic Sciences category. The three winners this year, of which two are also co-authors of a book – “Good Economics for Hard Times” 2019 are the ones best placed to […]Read More Saving the world from below – Nobel Prize winners Banerjee- Duflo
Exports in the first half of this fiscal year were $267 billion, 1.9 per cent higher than last year. This was dismal if exports are to be the engine driving GDP growth. Imports, at $312 billion, reflected poor domestic demand and contracted by 3.2 per cent. The only good news was that the trade deficit […]Read More A hybrid export model might fly
Amid the doom and gloom of the world economy, there are encouraging signs that the Indian government is now taking tangible steps to reverse the worst aspects of the slowdown in India. Ministers take the lead This is a huge step away from the collective “Nelson’s eye” which was being turned to the crisis earlier. […]Read More Early shoots of reforms revival
It’s going to be a sombre Deepawali this year. If there were any doubts, the RBI Monetary Policy report of October 4 dispels them succinctly. Missing demand Global apprehensions abound around the policy and political uncertainty unleashed by the proxy war for access to markets between the US and China. Back home, slowing private demand […]Read More Its’ smart to stoke private demand
Tough reform decisions are best taken in times of grave crisis not when the going is good. Economic reform, at the best of times, is highly disruptive. It makes little political sense, in the real world, to throw away the benefits of a stable, growing economy, in the hope that the future would be brighter […]Read More BJP needs a consistent Economic Ideology
Over-performance can, sometimes, be worse than under-performance. Going by privately shared opinions on why Vikram, the moon lander, crashed, was because the rockets supposed to decelerate its descent worked overly well, making it drift sideways instead of descending in an orderly manner — much like a skydiver thrown sideways off-target by a sudden high volume […]Read More Economy needs more than better branding
The first 100 days of the Modi 2.0 government have been marked by lows and highs. Sadly, the lows are longer lasting, while the highs are transient, even in the short term. The biggest low was the Budget for FY 2019-20 in July, which was presented, in the absence of the late Arun Jaitley, with […]Read More Modi 2.0 100 not out!
It’s scarier going downhill than climbing to the top. Whilst on the way up, the heavyweight of inertia is known and hence manageable. Going downhill, inertia accelerates descent in unknown ways. The economy is no different. Flab (public sector banks), poorly maintained brakes (uncompetitive private firms), worn gear cogs (lack of structural reforms) or inadequate […]Read More Indian Economy – The great slide
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman might well be already thinking of penning a book on how demand vanished the moment she assumed charge. She faces an uphill task and has to carry the ball of lax governance earlier. We have sat on collapsing real estate demand for the last decade without doing anything more substantive than to […]Read More Who moved my demand curve?
The spontaneous or manoeuvred fracturing of polity along traditional identities is misaligned with development—our core concern today—which, by definition, is inclusive. But just as surely, papering over political sores festering over the last seven decades, like in Kashmir, has not helped. Unlocking the constitutional logjam The constitutional coup by the Union Government on August 5th to […]Read More Kashmir gets a reality check