governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation
High growth generates the comfort of public unwillingness to look a gift horse in the mouth. When growth is more than double the global levels and the highest achieved by any comparator entity, there are even fewer quibbles. This is true for both startups and national economies. Both are subject to “analyst fog” about an […]
Read More Interim Budget 2024-25: Government a prisoner of over-reachRhetoric was rife at the opening of COP 28 with the Secretary General of the United Nations calling for an end to the burning of fossil fuels. “Not reduce, Not abate, Phase out” he recommended. This urgency found no salience finally in the first global stock, attended by nearly 200 countries, 85,000 participants with 55,000 […]
Read More Beyond the rhetoric COP28 DubaiThe good news that India’s GDP grew at 6.1 percent in Q4 (January to March 2023) and at 7.1 percent over the entire fiscal year (2022-23) received less than deserved attention. The previous fiscal year (2021-22) was the first post-covid normal year. To clock a growth rate of 7.1 percent over a normal base year […]
Read More Greenlighting GrowthMonetary policy that hunts with the advanced economy “hounds”—via symmetric upward adjustments in policy interest rates over the last year—and simultaneously runs with developing country “hares”—by desperately trying to revive stalling growth—has contradictions just waiting to come home to roost. That growth in India is stalling is clear from the RBI Monetary statement on 6 […]
Read More High Policy rates sans supporting fiscal policy cannot tame inflationAssociating budgetary allocations with cultural tropes is one way of validating them. Consider the case of two Indian states, joined at the hip till 1960 — Gujarat and Maharashtra. The origins of the 1960 split The port city of Surat in Gujarat was the entrepôt for Western India and the link with Arabia and beyond […]
Read More Culture drives how States Spend Public moneyIn India, the Union government takes on a much broader fiscal mandate than is necessary. Some of this is driven by the constitutional allocation of tax mandates, which favor tax flows to the Union government. Nearly 20 per cent, on an average, of a state government’s revenue flows in a “waterfall arrangement” from the Centre […]
Read More Indian Economy: Reading the Tea LeavesOur garden is full of goodies come and get what you need. This is what Finance Minister Sitharaman conveyed to the people (and voters) of India in her 2023-24 budget speech. Adding to the ever deepening gift bag that the Modi administration has held out to voters since 2015, the budget not only slashed income […]
Read More Budget Bounties 2023-24Growth is slowing in India. In July to September this year there were six major economies- Malaysia, Greece, Philippines, Israel, Colombia, Argentina (The Economist December 1) with growth higher than the 6.3 percent India achieved in the April to September quarter of this fiscal. Growth by year end is unlikely to be vastly different. Is […]
Read More Indian Economy between A Rock and A Hard spaceElections are to democracy what financial markets are to the economy. Elections channel the flow of political power, from the people to the government via political parties, which act like asset management companies in financial markets, enhancing market contestability and assuring stability. The absence of an omnibus law to regulate elections and political parties in […]
Read More Regulating Political Parties and Opaque Election FinanceAfter inflation levels off, hopefully in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, after the Ukraine crisis becomes dormant, yet again, through exhaustion or accommodation (as in 2014) and thinking beyond the growing domestic political contestation, as India prepares for the quinquennial national electoral contest in April 2024, the problem of low growth is […]
Read More India: Export for Growth
Opinion India 