Can flying geese-Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu-Power India’s growth with stability?

State government performance is going to matter in the coming months of fiscal and economic stress. The national performance will depend in the near term, crucially, on how the better-performing states pull their weight. One criterion of state performance is the budget allocations for fiscal 2023-24 starting April 1st and the outlook on fiscal rectitude. […]

Public Spending: Cut The Fat finance Growth Enablers

Governments are the biggest spenders in national economies. Global expenditure per the IFPRI SPEED 2019 database, in agriculture, communications, education, defense, health, mining, social protection, fuel and energy, and transport for 110 countries in 2015 is estimated at US$ 19.3 trillion in current terms or 26 percent of global GDP. By 2022 the average spend […]

Independence day 2022: Looking Ahead

The annual address from the ramparts of the Red Fort is Prime Minister Modi’s prime vehicle for mass outreach, other than via his Twitter handle. His style—discursive, evocative, and expansive—suits the occasion where substance must needs take a back seat to rhetoric. All these are good reasons for not looking too deeply into the substance […]

Population growth- Ticking bomb or blessing

Global population growth decelerated since 1965, even before “The Population Bomb”, a 1968 best-seller by Paul and Anne Ehrlich, advocated population control if the world were not to starve to death. In 1972, the Club of Rome published “The Limits to Growth”, which similarly predicted that the world would run out of its natural resources. […]

Repurposing governance- trim the fat in state governments

The tragic snafu over making sufficient oxygen available to meet the spike in demand from COVID-related morbidity is a red flag for an underlying malaise—of overlapping mandates, state governments enfeebled by decades of Union government spoon feeding, and under capacitated local government. Sadly, state governments have voluntarily accepted this hollowing out of their core functions. […]

Budgetary #funstuff- “never befores” for 2022

There is a fun-side to budgets beyond the dreary boredom of the data and pedantic truisms bandied about. The lightest side of the budget this year, were capital receipts from disinvestment (code for under-the-radar privatization) which at 85% below budget outclassed, for the “back bencher award”, revenue receipts, which only shrank – like cooked methi (Fenugreek)- to […]

The approaching fiscal storm

The government accounts for Q1 (April to June) of fiscal 2021 give hope that the governments nuanced stance on Covid 19 management which emerged post the initial panicked lock down in March, is working. Fiscal crunch in Q1 In April and May revenue receipts were at rock bottom (30% and 25% respectively of revenue receipts […]

Containing the 3Cs- China, Covid and Congress

The Modi government has its near-term challenges well defined – containing China, Covid and Congress in the order they are presented. The Congress bogey Of these, the last seems the most doable. The Congress lingers primarily because Indians are habituated to hedge their bets and have a back-up plan. Never put all your eggs in […]

Fiscal stimulus – Waiting for Godot

“Waiting for Godot”- a play by Samuel Beckett in which a fictional Godot never arrives. The title has now become a code or allegory, to describe waiting forever for something which never happens. The 2014 “election jumla” of Rs 15 lakhs of recovered hawala money to be deposited into each bank account, quickly acquired this […]

A “Big State” post COVID19

Asking a politician to abjure politics is like telling a dancer not to tap his feet to the music – a physical impossibility. Expectedly PM Modi used the April 14 COVID update to pay his respects to Baba Saheb Ambedkar whose birthday it was – illustrating the proclivity of BJP managers to red flag branding […]

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