governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation

Archive for the ‘crime’ Category

The two conundrums of the Modi government

DOKLAM

The Narendra Modi government poses two conundrums for citizens. First, citizens want an effective government, like PM Modis. But they also value and actively guard their rights. Making a colonial-style government gallop, often means cutting corners and turning a blind eye to the encroachment of citizens’ rights. We are still very far from being China, where even the option to negotiate a tradeoff, between effectiveness and rights, does not exist. For PM Modi reforming the government — a long-delayed, unpleasant, plumbing task — is one way to reduce the starkness of the tradeoff as it exists today.

Harsh on corruption soft on criminality

criminals

Second, there is a yawning gap between the proactivity of government in ending corruption and the business-as-usual approach to ending criminality. For the average citizen, criminality is far more worrying than corruption. A government which does not consistently impose the rule of law uniformly loses credibility over time. The djinns unleashed by allowing hired goons to massacre Sikhs in 1984 or by allowing kar sevaks to bring down the Babri Masjid in December 1992 still haunt us.

Going up the down escalator, is hard work and wasteful

The dead weight of poor governance practices and a predilection for unorthodox solutions, to show quick results, create a drag on its otherwise creditable efforts — just like a person running up the down escalator. Switching escalators can help. But this requires a change in ideology to put growth with jobs and a crackdown on criminality first.

Growth slows

Growth has taken a hit. Fiscal 2018 will end with a probable 6.5 per cent growth and the terminal year of the Narendra Modi government — Fiscal 2019 — with seven per cent. The average growth will then be one percentage point lower than under the previous government — a point Dr Manmohan Singh repeatedly emphasises to show that this government is only about hype.

But growth is not the only metric of governance

But this is being uncharitable to the BJP government. Growth is just one of the metrics of good governance. The open economy model spits out growth but often without jobs and with growing inequality, corruption and criminality. At some point, an efficient and purposeful tradeoff can be made between higher growth and more rounded social and economic outcomes, like social protection and investing in human development. Growth has been affected because drags like the accumulated stressed assets of banks trap them into recycling credit to discredited corporate borrowers to keep the accounts “healthy”, crowding out credit to others, who could build the future. This is slowly being rectified. But the steps towards building a more responsible banking culture, to avoid reoccurrence, are not yet visible.

New beginnings in infrastructure and connectivity

metro2

Poor infrastructure and high transaction costs are another drag on growth. Higher allocations of public finance for infrastructure; doubling the rate of highway development; modernising ports and railways; tripling the number of airports connected with regular flights; promoting the free flow of goods across state borders, are positive steps to reduce the drag on growth. Allowing the overvalued rupee to realign with its real value can boost exports to meet reviving overseas demand and level the playing field for domestic producers versus seemingly cheap imports.

There is little near-term hope for private job creation

Job creation is doing worse than growth, increasing inequality, because jobs in services and manufacturing are being axed at the middle and lower end. Even in agriculture, higher productivity will depend on using machines for tasks currently done by humans, and changing regulations to allow leasing-in land for scaled-up commercial farming — again at the expense of jobs.

Reversing the trend of declining public sector employment could help. We need more specialised skills, directly linked to service delivery — nurses, doctors, teachers, engineers, accountants, tax professionals and lawyers. Better talent can be attracted by linking salary and benefits to specific positions, filled through open competition, rather than through a cadre, as they are today. The Modi government has made some lateral appointments at the highest level. But a comprehensive policy for reforming government appointments is sorely needed.

Despite the rough edges PM Modi enjoys respect and credibility

Modi mask

Quixotically, the levels of public trust and credibility that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has generated, within India and abroad, is unprecedented since the days of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. Admittedly, his supporters are overwhelmingly upper and middle-caste Hindus, though a tentative outreach to the lower castes, dalits and tribals has started. The minorities are caught in the “appeasement”and “alienation” paradox. Their “alienation” today is explained as an inevitable consequence of ending the practice of “appeasement” of earlier governments, to retain them as votebanks. The BJP is less ideologically committed to social and religious diversity than it is to forge a uniform national identity — China style. China faces potential social unrest — a drag on growth. We cannot afford another drag on growth.

Democracy incentivizes  political rhetoric

Democracy is about winning elections, forming stable governments, governing efficiently and ensuring justice. The BJP government has shown it can do three of the four very well. Turning up the heat on corruption has become the leitmotif of the BJP government. The costly demonetisation exercise; the rapid rolling out of the GST despite the associated implementation glitches; the strong action against corporate founders defaulting on bank loans or short-changing customers and suppliers; rapid financial inclusion and the promotion of bank and digital financial transactions to replace the use of cash — all these are initial steps towards combating corruption, increasing tax revenues and improving corporate governance.

But are we doing enough to reign in criminality?

More must be done to reduce the drag of widespread criminality. Reforming the election system to root out criminals; working with the Supreme Court to reform the dilatory judicial process and speed up the delivery of justice; enlarging the reach of judicial services; and reforming the police and prosecution systems are critical to reduce the drag imposed by shoddy implementation of the rule of law.

Use 2018 to consolidate past initiatives with just two new beginnings

2017 was a year of significant disruption and of useful beginnings. 2018 should be devoted to consolidation of ongoing initiatives rather than the scheme-a-month, headline-grabbing strategy of the past three years. Two new beginnings would, however, be welcome.

First, steps to compensate for the collateral damage caused to business, employment and incomes by hurried attempts to show results and win elections. Second, defined pathways to reaffirm the wider social compact between the government and all citizens.

inter faith 2

Adapted from the authors article in The Asian Age, December 28, 2017 http://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/281217/protect-rights-of-all-or-itll-be-drag-on-growth.html

Bad police work or “perfect” murders

Rajesh and Nupur Talwar were having an impromptu pre-birthday celebration for their daughter Aarushi, at their Noida residence on the evening of May 15, 2008. Their live-in, trusted house-help Hemraj was about, as usual. Some time before 6 am the next day, both Aarushi and Hemraj were dead — the victims of horrific violence inside the house. The Talwars say Hemraj killed Aarushi, but ascribe no motive for him to have done that. Also, they have no idea who killed Hemraj, or where. His bloodied body was found on the terrace, which was locked from outside. The key to it was never found.

Changing investigation agencies adds to the confusion on the ground

On May 23, 2008, the Uttar Pradesh police arrested Rajesh Talwar on suspicion of being the prime accused in the double murder. Unhappy with the way the UP police was conducting the investigation, the Talwars petitioned for the case to be transferred to the Central Bureau of Investigation. Policing is a state subject under the Constitution. Unless the state government agrees, the CBI has no jurisdiction in such cases. But then UP chief minister Mayawati had no hesitation in letting the CBI carry the ball forward.

The CBI steps in…but shambolic investigations continue

By May 31, 2008 the CBI was officially in charge. By July 11, 2008, the CBI filed a report in the designated CBI court that there was insufficient evidence against Rajesh Talwar, who was consequently released on bail. The next three years were spent trying to find out who did it. Over this period four different investigating officers handled the case. Finally, A.G.L. Kaul, DSP, filed a closure report on January 1, 2011, citing the lack of any conclusive evidence to indict anybody.

CBI court starts proceedings against the Talwars suo motto

To their credit, the Talwars contested the finding and urged further investigations. The CBI court decided to proceed with the case. But it summoned the Talwars as the accused. Courts do have this power. But more usually, this happens when the police seems dilatory in lodging a first information report, not when a closure report has been filed by the police after investigations. The Talwars, possibly shaken by being named as the accused, moved the Supreme Court for relief. But their petition was dismissed. The outcome, two years later, on November 25-26, 2013 was that the Talwars were convicted by a CBI court for the double murders.

Allahabad High Court strikes down the conviction due to insufficient evidence

The Talwars appealed against these convictions. The Allahabad high court has, on October 12, 2017, ruled in favour of the Talwars. It held that the lower court had erred in considering the chain of circumstantial evidence adduced as being conclusive since multiple conclusions could be drawn from the same facts. This is only temporary relief for the Talwars. The CBI has 90 days to appeal to the Supreme Court. But the CBI also has a credibility issue, particularly within the Supreme Court. In 2013 the CBI was described, by a justice of the Supreme Court as a “caged parrot” of the government of the day.

The legal battle may not be over

In our topsy-turvy, anything-is-possible, adversarial, judicial system, the better argued case inevitably wins. It seems a one-sided battle. The Talwars will fight for their continued liberty, the restoration of normalcy and social standing. The CBI will fight to improve its record of convictions and to show that crime does not pay. Sadly, no one is fighting for Hemraj or for the wife and kids he left behind. As for 13-year-old Aarushi, it is difficult to say how she may have wanted things to pan out.

Too many questions, not enough answers

But with shoddy initial investigations and doubtful evidence, that has already been questioned exhaustively in the high court’s order, what another appeal will achieve remains unclear. Once the investigation is compromised the benefit of doubt doctrine ensures that the criminals walk free. Consider, even the weapons used for the murders remain unidentified – a golf club, a khukri, surgical scalpels, a hammer have all been mentioned as possibilities. The motive for murder remains unestablished. It is not even conclusive whether the flat was  locked from inside or not – this is important because it either points the finger of suspicion on the Talwars or opens up the possibility of others being involved. Aarushi’s phone was found and returned some days later by a colony maid. It had been wiped clean of all data. Who took it, wiped it clean and then tossed it aside in the colony? Too many loose ends remain uninvestigated, And what about Aarushi’s new camera – presented to her on the night of the murder? Was it also clean of evidence? Who killed Hemraj? Why and where? There are no evidenced answers.

Poor institutional arrangements for bringing criminals to justice

It is also tragic that despite transferring the case from the allegedly, bumbling UP police — supposedly, more familiar with law and order rather than tricky, crime investigations — to the more savvy and efficient CBI, the results are so pathetic. Justice for Hemraj and Aarushi remains elusive even a decade after.

To be fair to the CBI, conventional crime is not its core mandate. Investigation of economic offences and corruption is its forte. Since 2008, terror-related crime investigations have already been hived off to the new National Investigation Agency (NIA), which can, seamlessly, also deal with crime having national consequences or cross-state crime networks.

Conventional crime is usually dealt by the state police. The deleterious trend of frequent transfer of cases to the CBI dates to the early 1980s. It enables forum shopping, scratch my back bargains and politicisation. It also discourages state police forces from developing their expertise and practices for investigating and prosecuting crime.

The double murder does not qualify for the CBI’s attention. Delhi records 598 murders and Uttar Pradesh 4,860 murders per year. The Aarushi-Hemraj case, however horrific, is a personal tragedy of only two families. The public outcomes are negligible. Its investigation could have remained with the UP police. Transferring the case to the CBI has only muddied things at the field level and encouraged finger-pointing. The then director of the CBI had this to say, in 2014, as part of a tribute to the untimely demise of A.G.L. Kaul, SP, CBI, the last investigating officer: “Despite the many lacunae and loopholes, due to the fact that the case had been handled initially by the UP Police, (Kaul) was able to obtain a conviction.”

Doubtful if India can be policed well from Delhi

Till recently, there was a tendency to centralise financial and administrative resources in the Union government on the grounds of higher efficiency and rectitude. This is self-defeating. The surest way of retaining power is to distribute it to where it can best be administered. The CBI must be honed to do its primary task — bringing moneyed crooks to justice.

Central police organisations are hopelessly outdated in their staffing pattern, skills and equipment. They need knowledge and technology to collect intelligence, investigate and prosecute. Boots on the ground look great in the Republic Day parade. But they are costly and ineffective in tackling 21st century criminals. Leaner, officer-oriented, specialised and mobile security agencies are really the way to go.

Adapted from the author’s article in The Asian Age October 17, 2017 http://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/171017/sloppy-cbi-police-work-gives-a-licence-to-kill.html

Keeping our children safe

Kid security

Violent crimes against children are grabbing headlines. The latest is the sexual assault and murder of a student in a private school’s toilet in Haryana’s Bhondsi, near Gurgaon. However, Haryana is not the most dangerous state for kids. That dubious distinction belongs to Delhi, with a crime rate (crimes against children per 100,000 population) of 169. Chandigarh follows at 68. The safest states for kids, per the National Crime Records Bureau data, are Jharkhand, with a child crime rate of just three, followed by Bihar, at four.

Long term negative impacts of child abuse

The World Health Organisation estimates that in developed countries, six per cent of adult depression, alcohol and drug abuse; eight per cent of suicide attempts; 10 per cent of panic disorders and 27 per cent of post-traumatic stress disorders are due to abuse during the first decade of the victim’s life.

But there is scanty scientific evidence, in developing countries, of the drivers — the sources and location — of child abuse. David Finkelhor, a sociologist, tellingly comments that “there is more experimental science in the toilet paper we use every day, than in what we have to offer abused children or families at risk of abuse”.

Crime data

In India, where the general standards of personal security and protection of human rights are low and public resources are stretched, child abuse can easily become just another statistic. Crimes against children increased from 14,975 in 2005 to 94,172 in 2015. Over the same period, violent crimes increased at the rate of 5.5 per cent per year — much faster than the growth of the population. Sadly, the proportion of crimes against children to total violent crimes, increased from seven per cent in 2005 to 28 per cent in 2015. Our children are increasingly more unsafe.

With whom does the buck stop?

Preventing such crimes is a shared responsibility. Initiatives include regular oversight and counselling of risky families by specialised agencies; early identification of high-risk adolescents to aid them through high school; imparting life skills training to make children streetsmart and reducing access to alcohol, drugs and weapons.

Inevitably, poorer kids are more at risk than rich kids. The same applies to other population segments at risk — senior citizens and women. The well-off can cocoon themselves from a prevailing ecosystem of insecurity. But for other vulnerable groups, it is the State which must step in to offer protection.

First, increasing the effectiveness of policing aimed specifically at controlling crime on the street and in public spaces is the key. Predators seek out low-security havens — parks, lonely lanes and unoccupied spaces to strike. India is historically under-policed. The UN standard is 222 police personnel for every 100,000 population. India has never crossed 140. Singapore — that haven of orderliness, which all Indians marvel at — has 1,074; disciplined Japan has 207; the European Union has around 347 policemen per 100,000 population.

Even this aggregate data exaggerates the level of police available for citizen centric, local policing — beat patrols, traffic management, crime prevention, detection and investigation. In India 60 per cent of the police are occupied guarding government buildings and assets (such as CISF & RPF); patrolling the borders (BSF, ITBP, SSB); quelling riots, fighting insurgency or doing VIP bandobast (CRPF and state armed police). Local policing must be strengthened much, much more.

The police is too busy with other stuff

police action

Comprehensive police reform has never been tackled seriously despite a series of commissions — starting with the National Commission on Police Reform, 1978, and ending with the Second Administrative Reforms Commission, 2007, all of which recommend broadly similar measures. The police mandate is fractured between states and the Centre, leading to silo functioning. The Central police forces are significantly better resourced than the state police forces, though the latter are directly concerned with controlling crime. The buck often stops with the police. But they are poorly led. Senior police officers skip from helming one complex area to another, where they may have no prior experience and no long-term allegiance to the specialised force they command. Even junior officers and constables are neither specifically recruited nor are they permanently slotted in specialised areas, like crime detection and investigation; communications; community policing; traffic management; cyber security or intelligence and riot control.

The “danda” is still the primary instrument of policing

Second, the use of technology to identify high-risk locations and victim behaviour and profile potential predators is constrained by the low educational qualifications of the personnel. 86 per cent of the force consists of constables who have merely passed their Class 10 or at best Class 12 exams. The officer cadre is thin and inadequately skilled. Service conditions are terrible. Police personnel regularly do 10-hour to 14-hour long shifts, with no weekly time off. Police housing, of indifferent quality, is available only for just one-third of the personnel. Worse, the police force is highly politicised and tends to rely on fear and the use of brute force, rather than by earning the respect of citizens — a colonial hangover. These conditions are not conducive to attract committed, qualified recruits.

Too few first responders to save lives and manage trauma

PS tent

Third, improving the first responder reaction, can save lives and minimise damage by getting victims to healthcare facilities. But there are just 15,500 police stations across more than 650,000 villages and road links may not be the best. Of these nearly 10 per cent lack even a wireless link. There are only 164,000 vehicles with the state police forces. Their spread across locations is likely to be highly uneven and concentrated in the major cities.

Better oversight by government of security arrangements in schools

Other than improving policing, viable short-term options include better oversight by the government education departments over school administrations. Value-add community participation, like authorising Parent Teacher Associations to certify the school’s adherence to minimum safety and security standards, can help.

Decentralise security to groups of parents & kids

cop teaches

Get kids and parent groups to collectively enhance their own security. Readers may remember the captivating proactivity of kids in outwitting, admittedly bumbling, adult, minor criminals from the 1950s era, in Enid Blyton’s Secret Seven and Famous Five series. Fiction can become a reality — once the imagination and interest of the kids is ignited. Herein lies the fastest and most effective route to making our kids safe.

Adapted from the authors article in The Asian Age, September 15, 2017 http://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/150917/to-keep-our-kids-safe-all-have-a-role-to-play.html

 

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