Musk storms the tweeters nest hoping the bird will fly

It has finally “sunk in” that Twitter is entering uncharted waters as it tries to create a world defined by free speech that offends no one, obeys the law of the land and yet manages to say something sensational in 280 characters, hour after hour, to pull in eyeballs and the advertising dollars to keep it afloat.

Why Twitter?

So why this fascination for acquiring a $43.4 billion social media company by the world’s richest man valued at $217 billion already stressed by multiple commitments in front line technology firms? Musk puts it disarmingly saying because he could afford to. In this he echoes Sir Edmund Hilary, the New Zealand born mountaineer, who in 1953 along with Tenzing Norgay, was the first to climb Mount Everest, the tallest peak. When asked why he did it, he replied – because it was there.

Musk says he did it to restore the freedom of speech in public discourse- which per the Musk mantra should remain the default option. A user’s right to free speech should only be circumscribed by local laws and users crossing the red lines. He does not intend to intervene personally to determine these boundaries, proposing instead, an institutionalized arrangement to transparently lay down guard rails and red flags.

A bot free platform

Another objective is to free the world from the scourge of misinformation spread by bots estimated at between 5 percent (per pre-Musk Twitter management) to 20 percent (external estimates) of Twitter accounts. These are shell accounts with fake identities, prone to be manipulated electronically to harass, inflame opinions, spread hatred and misinformation or simply available on hire to quickly build digital reputations for “influencers” by digitally triggering bot “followers” and “likes” – creating visible bragging rights amidst popularity conscious Twitterati.

Restoring free speech

Musk’s stance, favoring” Free Speech” seems as doomed as Custers last stand at the Battle of the Little Bighorn in 1876. It is out of sync with the times. Public communication triggered by private thoughts is increasingly circumscribed either by the spread and power of authoritarian “big” governments or by the “Woke” eco-system fashionable in the western alliance of democracies, protecting minorities rights against racial slurs, gender and sexuality-based prejudices and body shaming, amongst others.

Does Twitter have the scale to redefine social media norms?

Does Twitter qualify to effect a change in public discourse at a scale which fits its perceived global impact? How significant are Twitterati anyway? Twitter has 217 million registered accounts. Around 80 percent of these are registered outside the United States. This makes Twitter the preferred communication channel for around 4 percent of the global pre-adult and adult population of 6 billion- possibly mostly from the top global income percentile.  

This outreach scale – selective but influential across “those who matter” in business, government, the arts, and non-state actors globally – is also suggested by Twitter’s advertising revenue of $4.5 billion (2021), less than 4 percent of global advertising revenue of $1.132 trillion (Statista), for all media companies. Advertising spend relates to eyeballs and the purchasing power of captive customers on any platform. Why then care about who is the “Chief Twit” of a select few? President Trump, Twitter services to whom were withdrawn post the capture of Capitol Hill by his disappointed supporters in January 2021, cloned his own “Twitter” competitor platform called “Truth Social” in February 2022.

A pinch of salt

Why not view Musk’s pitch of protecting global free speech with the skepticism it deserves? Ethical big business is a good talking point to defang the envy, criticism, and censure which it attracts from the many others unable to guild their futures similarly. Musk will not be the first to trudge the rocky path to a rosy future of a happy, well-meaning global ecosystem led by big business – a poisoned chalice, that has thus far, failed to balance high social ideals with the nasty reality of political and commercial compulsions.

Private playground

Musk has delisted Twitter, effectively freeing it from the tight disclosure regulations which govern publicly listed companies. Almost by definition, this implies a smaller universe for citizen rights, transparency and arms-length decision making.  Media, in general, is already under the threat of subservience to government defined public interest. Twitter can be no exception to that rule and is probably even more vulnerable to extraneous influence from its future Board of Directors and big investors.

Musk’s long shadow

Elon Musk, is almost certainly, a man with a distinct technological vision of the future and the personal conviction to prevail against all odds in shaping that future. He has broken technological barriers and reshaped the business frontiers of the start-ups he founded. Tesla is a publicly listed company worth $706 billion, which has redefined automobile manufacture and is a trail blazer for high-end electric vehicles and giga sized battery storage factories. Space X – a plucky space travel company worth $127 billion is the private sector’s answer to the stodgy products of an underfunded NASA. The Boring Company worth $5.7 billion, specializes in digging tunnels for taking utility networks and motorized traffic off-the-streets and into a network of underground tunnels. It also meets the technological needs of the Hyperloop vacuum train being tested in Texas and California for technical and financial viability. Neuralink worth between $500 million $1 billion aims to treat neurological disorders through implant of a device in the brain- the equivalent of a pacemaker for the brain.

More trouble than its worth?

Investors worry that the leveraged purchase of Twitter and the subsequent decimation of its board (most with little skin in the game) and top management line-up (complicit in misinformation regarding the volume of bots per Musk), is likely to be a costly diversion for Elon Musk- distracting him from the hi-tech ventures he personally steers, including sleeping on the work floor to boost the morale of engineering teams, toiling to achieve break throughs in complex tasks within tight time frames.

The worry is misplaced. The businessman in Elon Musk surely recognizes that revenues desperately need scaling up. Nearly 90 percent of its revenues of $5.1 billion in 2021 were from advertising. Net loss was at $221 million. Elon Musk fancies Twitter as a “town square” for honest and civil conversations. Downsizing- a lazy management option to plug revenue gaps- doesn’t quite square with a happy “town square” feel. A sanitized Twitter would be an advertiser’s graveyard. The world’s wealthiest men dislike endless financial bleeds on their own account. Expect Twitter to retain its sauce.   

The opinion piece first appeared in Asian Age November 1, 2022 https://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/011122/sanjeev-ahluwalia-musk-storms-tweeter-nest-twitter-to-retain-its-sauce.html