governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation
On the eve of the 2021-22 budget presentation, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has clearly earned her spurs just two years into the job. A coordinated collection tax effort revives revenue receipts in Q3 Despite the economy being somewhere between 15 to 8% below last year’s level all through Q3 (October to December) this year, cumulative […]
Read More FM Sitharaman earns her spurs raising expectations sky highDespite receipts being 18% lower than even last year till November, largely because of the yawning gap against the aggressive budget estimate for disinvestment receipts (Rs 2,1 trillion), the Union government did well to spend almost 5% more than last year by enhancing borrowing. This is in the best traditions of trying to keep the […]
Read More Budget for hope, build resilient foundationsDespite the hoopla around this year’s annual budget, it is unlikely to be a stunning display of “clever accounting” catering to all whilst pleasing none. Nor is it likely to strew goodies all around. Challenges abound The need is to spell out hard fiscal decisions. The list of challenges is long. The interest burden consumes […]
Read More No room for extravagance in 2021-22 budgetEpisodes of fiscal stress are unpleasant. But, like war, they are necessary to separate the wheat from the chaff in governments expenditure profile. The growing overhang of debt servicing This year interest payments account for 89% of the budgeted fiscal deficit. The accumulated debt was incurred not to finance infrastructure or enhance investments. It is […]
Read More FM plays Shylock with steely gritThe Union government has done well to resist being dragged into “bhed-chaal” (following the herd) by blowing up its fiscal balance beyond repair in the hope of a steep economic recovery. The case for continued fiscal rectitude The fiscal deficit (FD) is on track to increase to Rs 12.5 trillion this year. The expected GDP […]
Read More Fiscal rectitude flows from resilient revenuesIn the first half of fiscal 2020-21 Union government receipts are just 25% of budgeted annual receipts as opposed to 40% in the previous fiscal. Receipts tend to have a slow start but not this slow. We are Rs 2.7 trillion short of the Rs 8.4 trillion we collected as receipts last fiscal till September. […]
Read More Come September outcomes fiscal bluesWe have got used to being feted by the international community as a “rising great power”. This suits our exaggerated self-perception and the choreographed diplomatic dance of real Great Powers (US and EU) with China, truly, a risen great power, albeit increasingly not a benign one. Covid mirror The Covid epidemic has shown up all […]
Read More Trudging up the recession gorgeThere is something endearing about the desire of the Modi government to be fiscally correct in the amount of debt it piles up. Chrometophobia – the fear of debt This single-minded adherence to being fiscally correct was much in evidence during the Jaitley years when reduction of the fiscal deficit (FD) below 4.5% of GDP, […]
Read More Wanted visionary husbanding of public financesNow that we all live in a real time world, courtesy the near ubiquitous digitization of our lives, government processes which share economic information with a lag, are irksome at best and superfluous at worst. Consider that the scheduled release today, of the official version of GDP destruction in Q1 of fiscal 2021 (April to […]
Read More Economic bitesThe government accounts for Q1 (April to June) of fiscal 2021 give hope that the governments nuanced stance on Covid 19 management which emerged post the initial panicked lock down in March, is working. Fiscal crunch in Q1 In April and May revenue receipts were at rock bottom (30% and 25% respectively of revenue receipts […]
Read More The approaching fiscal storm
Opinion India 