governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation

Posts tagged ‘elections’

BJP dials 100, Bedi to the rescue

(Reposted from the Asian Age January 21- http://www.asianage.com/columnists/bjp-dials-100-bedi-rescue-021)

bedi_kejriwal

(photocredit: sahilonline.org)

The DNA of Kiran Bedi and the Bharatiya Janata Party seem twinned at birth. Bolly-wood films thrive on the “masala” (formula) of twins separated at birth but reunited after an epic struggle with a happily tear-jerking end. The BJP and Ms Bedi finding each other after so long is real life imitating art.

For both, “discipline” comes with a capital D. They share a strong belief in the ability of large, efficient organisations to provide direction and in the efficacy of formal rules and regulations to manage society.

“Crane” Bedi could as well have been known as “danda” Bedi. Armed only with a wooden baton, she single-handedly charged at a bunch of unruly, sword-wielding Akali protesters in Delhi. The BJP is similarly admired for strong leadership and decisive action.

Kiran Didi mesmerises kids just as Mr Modi does. In both these leaders kids see a strong, stern but clear-headed “parent” with a consistent idea of what to do next and the ability to prescribe, what seems to be, a winning game plan. They have a common bias for acronyms (Kiran Didi’s 6Ps — police, prisons, prosecution, people, parents and press — compete with Mr Modi’s 3Ds — democracy, demography and demand) and a shared communication style of keeping the message simple: Hard work, discipline, steadfast goals and an alert mind ready to grab any opportunity being the mantra for advancement.

Business people, Punjabi refugees, professionals, the “sarkari” middle class and all those with a stake in preserving the status quo form the core urban constituency of the BJP in Delhi. They all look on Kiran Didi with approval. She is a Punjabi herself; a self-made professional who strove to excel at whatever she did and ensured that she got recognised for her achievements. Professional aggression, ambition and, above everything else, success, is what this core constituency adores. These attributes Ms Bedi has in plenty.

Given more time, Ms Bedi could have consolidated the woman vote behind her. She is today a mélange of what many young girls dream to be a mother, a successful government officer, an outspoken social activist, a TV personality, a politician and, implicitly, very much part of the Delhi elite.

But time is scarce with barely three weeks to go for the polls on February 7, 2015. Indeed, the fact that time was running out is what induced the unorthodox induction of a “rank outsider” into the BJP, ostensibly to lead the campaign and, possibly, eventually become the chief minister. Galling as it must be for Mr Modi that his name was not enough to pull in votes in Delhi, the fact is that the BJP must look at systematic dispersal of power and responsibility if they are to win in Bihar and later in Uttar Pradesh.

This, in fact, is the way it has been thus far. BJP chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh or Maharashtra do not view themselves as subordinate to the Prime Minister, at least not yet and certainly not in the manner the hapless, erstwhile Congress chief ministers were with regard to Sonia Gandhi.

The induction of Kiran Didi should also be read as a sign that Mr Modi is not averse to modernising the BJP and aggressively broad-basing its membership beyond the rather obscure agenda of the Sangh. Mr Modi seems to be working towards reinventing the BJP as a party of the right, committed to small government functioning on the P4S principle of private sector-led growth, security, sustainability, social protection and passive secularism.

Both the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party have their core support base intact in Delhi. It is the direction of swing in the erstwhile Congress supporters — Poorvanchali migrants, scheduled caste, scheduled tribes and the Muslims which will determine the vote change this time around.

Ms Bedi’s induction into the BJP is a game changer because, first, she has the star appeal and freshness to attract the middle class supporters of the AAP who were disappointed with Arvind Kejriwal’s reluctance to rule in 2013 and in whose eyes Mr Kejriwal became an opportunistic quitter. Many were coming around to the idea of giving him a second chance rather than support a “traditional party” like the BJP. Now they see in Ms Bedi an alternative, the manifestation of a “new” BJP just as AAP was in 2013.

Second, Ms Bedi shall attract the wavering, non-Muslim Congress supporters who are rudderless today with the demise of the Delhi Congress. For aspirational women and the educated professional, Ms Bedi’s BJP seems to be the true inheritor of the Congress’ erstwhile mantle of stability and development which kept it in power for 15 long years (1998-2013).

Third, the BJP’s core base is unlikely to reject the “outsider” Ms Bedi who exudes success and brims with optimism. Too much is made of the disaffection of the old-time Delhi BJP leaders. These are long-term political players, honed in the Sangh’s discipline to never break ranks. In any case, they can easily be assured that Ms Bedi is only “transiting” through Delhi to enter the national government, where she would get more traction. Police, land and housing in Delhi are all dealt with by the Union government. In fact, the Delhi government is more like an empowered metropolitan authority rather that an Indian state.

With the Congress in decline, Delhi elections are a face-off between the BJP and the AAP. The AAP 2013 phenomenon was a unique convergence of the middle class and Delhi’s “underbelly” votes. But even this coalition was not sufficient to get AAP a clear majority. This time around the AAP will be boosted by significant Muslim support which earlier kept the Congress in power. But even within the AAP’s core support base they will have to contend with Ms Bedi attracting women voters.

Ms Bedi is a powerful role model and a convincing administrator to assure the empowerment of women and their protection, not least because of her linkages with the police.

If Kiran Didi can project herself as the “face” of the “new BJP” — forward-looking, effective, gender sensitive, socially progressive, honest and committed to equitable development — she may well nudge the BJP towards forming the government in Delhi.

The Bedi baan (arrow) unleashed by Mr Modi is sure to give sleepless nights to “King Kejriwal” as he trawls the slums of Delhi to keep his flock intact.

PM Modi “let it be”

mother mary

PM Modi should consider listening to the “words of wisdom” in the famous 1970 Beatles hit –“Let it be”.

Of course in this cruel results centric world of ours, only those who get going fast and hard survive. But there are virtues also to sometimes take a call and just let things be.

Take for instance the manner in which BJP is keeping up the electoral rhetoric. Amit Shah the BJP President is everywhere exhorting voters in Bengali and Tamil to vote BJP. The adoption of “shock and awe” tactics- the use of such overpowering force that it leaves the enemy convinced that defeat is certain and thereby demoralizes them- is useful especially since the BJP is adept at using technology and has “Sangh boots” on the ground to realize this tactic in real life. Such tactics may work, but not against an extremely well organized and determined enemy- like the Afghans or Kejriwal.

In fact Kejriwal would welcome the adoption of the tactic in Delhi to magnify his underdog status and “David versus Goliath” effect. Ironically, in Delhi the BJP is painting Kejriwal as the “shock and awe” man with an Rs 100 crore election budget. Be that as it may but Kejriwal’s electoral base amongst the poor and the Muslims seems intact and he will give the BJP a rum fight.

The real question, is should PM Modi bother about Kejriwal? Some fights are best lost. After all India would lose its democratic plurality if every Indian state government from Kashmir to Kanyakumari became saffron-the BJP colours.

A ceaseless election rhetoric also has the downside that it does not allow the adversarial environment to cool down for the business of governance to commence. This the BJP can ill afford since it has built its election agenda around performance and shall be judged accordingly.

If Parliament cannot function harmoniously; if state governments get deadlocked in confrontation with the center, the development agenda, the BJP so desperately needs to implement, will remain just good intentions and plans.

The dilemma confronting the PM is starkly outlined by the Mid Term Economic Analysis 2014-15, the first document authored by the new Economics team in the Ministry of Finance, headed by Arvind Subramanian.

The Analysis notes that all through the period 2007 to 2010 it is private investment which led growth. It acknowledges that private investment has dried up. Corporates are deep in debt- partly due to their own greed in lapping up cheap debt because all through this period, inflation rates exceeded interest rates making it a no brainer to access debt- but also because investments have not resulted in revenues and remain locked in incomplete projects bedeviled by land unavailability; fuel shortages; contractual disputes; scams; and hold up in environmental approvals.

Rapid institutional reform (the underpinnings of good governance) could attract private investment for growth but the Analysis is starkly honest and pessimistic about the possibility of institutional reforms in the near term.  Apparently the PPP model is “broken” and cannot be fixed in the near term. Ergo the only available, albeit second best option, is to pump up public investment to compensate and hope to kick start private investments.

The efficacy of a public finance led growth option is not the topic of this post. The dangers are well known. No amount of public finance can fix a “broken” system. The more we rely on public finance led investment; national champions and a necessarily interventionist government; the deeper we slide into the morass of mega scams; gold plated projects; monopolies; tariff walls to “nurture” the consequential white elephants built using public finance and a further erosion of state credibility. This is exactly what the opposition wants to happen, so PM Modi should beware.

Political nirvana lies in sticking to the path the PM propounded when the country voted for him.

First, work doggedly to reform institutions in the near term. The near term is not as near as the next budget in February 2015, it is till end 2015 by when election fever will grip Bihar and then Uttar Pradesh. This can be done by building a team of selected state governments, the higher judiciary, Parliament and the trade unions all working to a minimalist institutional reform plan, which stops at causing unbearable (and uncompensated) pain to any one actor. That is the essence of democracy.

Second, PM Modi should rise above the metric of stock market numbers. What matters to him is an improvement in the lives of the average voter.  These are not people who live or die by what is happening on Dalal Street. Stick to the “micro economic” problem of making their lives better and here we have a problem. The ongoing deflation (reduction) in rural wages, as the Analysis maps, is not a desirable outcome for the poor, especially in an environment in which government servants are 100% inflation indexed.

But above all the PM has a political choice to make. Is it better for the BJP to continue to hog headlines via an adversarial electoral agenda or reserve the “shock and awe” effect for later in 2015 when preparations for Bihar and then Uttar Pradesh elections kick-in?

He would be well advised, in these troubled times, to “listen to Mother Mary and let it be”.

(This blog is dedicated to my Grand Nephew Angad Ahluwalia, age 6, whose favourite song is “Let it Be” and whose current ambition is to be a Lead Guitarist in a band.)

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