governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation
India has a budgeting problem, like any other middle-class household. Aspirations are larger than means, possibly, driven by the doubtful glory of being the fourth largest economy and politically primed, by future expectations of becoming a “developed” country by 2047. Coddled by obliging import tariffs, clunky private corporates are risk averse and the financial sector […]
Read More Sane Budgeting for a Crazy WorldIndia has excelled in welfare payments since 2020, though the focus on “saturation” targeting encourages large, inefficient spill overs in distribution of free food, free electricity and water supply, cash transfers to all farmers and subsidized “affordable” homes. Nevertheless, many would say, it is better to over supply welfare goods and services, including to the […]
Read More Budget for the right results: Government to step back.Finance Minister of India, Nimala Sitharaman is set to make history. Some, she has already made by being the first women to be Finance Minister (FM) if one excludes Prime Minister Indira Gandhi who held the finance portfolio in 1969. If all goes well, she will become the first FM to serve for more than […]
Read More If I were Nirmala SitharamanThere is a 93 percent probability that at least one year between 2022-2026 will dislodge 2016 as the warmest year. More worryingly, the probability of a temporary increase in temperature more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) which was zero in 2015, has now increased to 48 percent. The warning bell is ringing, and it […]
Read More Energy Transition Under fiscal and Institutional stressBetween spending and saving, governments are generally better at the former. High growth comes with the advantage that government revenue expands and gets spent, as is happening this fiscal. But this is also habit forming. If growth tapers down – as is expected in FY 2024- cutting back government spending will be politically rocky just […]
Read More Fiscal Options for Budget 2023-24Despite the hoopla around this year’s annual budget, it is unlikely to be a stunning display of “clever accounting” catering to all whilst pleasing none. Nor is it likely to strew goodies all around. Challenges abound The need is to spell out hard fiscal decisions. The list of challenges is long. The interest burden consumes […]
Read More No room for extravagance in 2021-22 budgetThe Union government has done well to resist being dragged into “bhed-chaal” (following the herd) by blowing up its fiscal balance beyond repair in the hope of a steep economic recovery. The case for continued fiscal rectitude The fiscal deficit (FD) is on track to increase to Rs 12.5 trillion this year. The expected GDP […]
Read More Fiscal rectitude flows from resilient revenuesThere is something endearing about the desire of the Modi government to be fiscally correct in the amount of debt it piles up. Chrometophobia – the fear of debt This single-minded adherence to being fiscally correct was much in evidence during the Jaitley years when reduction of the fiscal deficit (FD) below 4.5% of GDP, […]
Read More Wanted visionary husbanding of public financesThe government accounts for Q1 (April to June) of fiscal 2021 give hope that the governments nuanced stance on Covid 19 management which emerged post the initial panicked lock down in March, is working. Fiscal crunch in Q1 In April and May revenue receipts were at rock bottom (30% and 25% respectively of revenue receipts […]
Read More The approaching fiscal stormEconomic downturns are cruel. They impose traumatic disruptions in incomes and lives – salary cuts, extended long leave without pay, outright job loss, drying up of business income or bankruptcy. The cash crunch for government is at crisis levels The government is no different. Revenue receipt of the Union government in May (Rs 0.17 trillion) […]
Read More Fiscal murmurs
Opinion India 