governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation
India has a budgeting problem, like any other middle-class household. Aspirations are larger than means, possibly, driven by the doubtful glory of being the fourth largest economy and politically primed, by future expectations of becoming a “developed” country by 2047. Coddled by obliging import tariffs, clunky private corporates are risk averse and the financial sector […]
Read More Sane Budgeting for a Crazy WorldIndia is at an inflection point. Realizing our long dormant economic potential is happening faster than our institutions are adapting to the new challenges. Becoming the fastest growing large economy this year with an unanticipated GDP boost of around 0.7 percentage point above our long-term growth rate of 6.6 percent over the past three decades […]
Read More “Big Government” & “High Growth”in IndiaHigh growth generates the comfort of public unwillingness to look a gift horse in the mouth. When growth is more than double the global levels and the highest achieved by any comparator entity, there are even fewer quibbles. This is true for both startups and national economies. Both are subject to “analyst fog” about an […]
Read More Interim Budget 2024-25: Government a prisoner of over-reachThe good news that India’s GDP grew at 6.1 percent in Q4 (January to March 2023) and at 7.1 percent over the entire fiscal year (2022-23) received less than deserved attention. The previous fiscal year (2021-22) was the first post-covid normal year. To clock a growth rate of 7.1 percent over a normal base year […]
Read More Greenlighting GrowthGrowth is slowing in India. In July to September this year there were six major economies- Malaysia, Greece, Philippines, Israel, Colombia, Argentina (The Economist December 1) with growth higher than the 6.3 percent India achieved in the April to September quarter of this fiscal. Growth by year end is unlikely to be vastly different. Is […]
Read More Indian Economy between A Rock and A Hard spaceEconomic decision makers face a problem. They make tradeoffs between alternative solutions but very few are win-win. Most involve optimizing for economic harm against benefits. Sadly, quantifying tradeoffs remains captive to data and computing constraints in these pre-quantum computing times. The fallback is to rely on gut instincts, ideology, or copycat solutions- none of which […]
Read More India: Taming inflation without hurting growthThe Reserve Bank of India-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) brewed a storm in a teacup by continuing its accommodative monetary policy stance—retaining the Repo rate (the cost of borrowing from the RBI) at 4 percent and the Reverse Repo (the cost of depositing funds with the RBI) at 3.35 percent. The MPC is a device, initiated in […]
Read More Storm in India’s monetary tea cupThe RBIs decision to hold the repo-rate (the administered rate at which the RBI lends money to banks) at 5.15 per cent for the second time in four months, mirrors the timidity of the Finance Minister in the budget proposals presented for FY 2021. Both are twins born of the same mother of policy paralysis […]
Read More RBI chickens out of stoking growthThe faux London clouds and cold plaguing Delhi over the past two months lifted and bright sunlight came tumbling through today with the arrival of the Brazilian President– lifting spirits around. Part of the lift was triggered by the enervating sight of the young men and this time loads of young women in uniform, who […]
Read More Republic Day 2020 – A turning point?Since the government no longer leaks information to the press on what is about to happen, it is tough to figure out whether the unanimous decision to hold the repo rate (the bank rate) at 5.15 per cent by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on December 6 has the Union government’s blessings. Maybe this is […]
Read More RBI Gov Shakti Das does a U turn
Opinion India 