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Posts tagged ‘Modi’

Modi: Unassailable at three

Modi parliament 2014

Modi enters Parliament for the first time in 2014 in a characteristic “Indian” manner – prostrating himself at the steps of this very British institution. Stooping to assimilate is the Indian way. Photo courtesy Indian Express 

Three years ago, when Modi’s BJP entered Parliament in May 2014, with a never before majority, the “realtors of Raisina Hill” (policy wonks and public intellectuals in Delhi) were full of doubt about whether a country bumpkin from Gujarat could navigate the gilded and suave avenues of Lutyen’s Delhi –  that part of the city, designed by the British for themselves in the 1930s, where todays rich and powerful elite lives and conspires in self-interest.

Modi does a pincer on Dehi elites

True to his Gujarati heritage and much like Gujarati emigrants to the west have done for ages, Modi made no effort to integrate or ingratiate himself into the elite. He cut his own lonely, furrow going around the established elite. Over time the furrow deepened into a moat which effectively encircled and confined Delhi’s elite to gossiping amongst themselves. Admittedly, his was an easier task than what confronted Gujarati emigrants overseas. But the tactic employed was the same. First, entrench yourself in the eco-ystem – get a job or start a small business; next, deepen your control on resources – build up capital and develop local relationships and finally look for gaps to fill – do what the lazy locals will never do.

Patels

The Patels – intrepid survivors in foreign lands – a smooth blend of modernity and tradition that makes them outstanding achievers and harmonious assimilators. 

There were initial hiccups. The BJP – essentially a north Indian, middle class party till then – first tried the babu approach of distinguishing itself from the previous government by rejecting even the good things the UPA had done – like NREGA and Aadhar. But Gujarati pragmatism and performance orientation won. The approach changed to building on what existed and exponentially expanding the scale and ambition of projects and policies, to shock and awe the public into abject Modi bhakts (followers). Nothing it seemed was impossible.

Modi’s ratings better than the BJPs

Three years on, the mood within the party is upbeat – not surprising after the massive electoral victories in Uttar Pradesh and then in the Delhi municipal elections. In sharp contrast to Trump, Modi’s popularity ratings beat those of his party. The inanities of the BJP’s rant on protecting cows rather than Dalits or projecting Hindu populism rather than political equality and security for the minorities is attributed by the common person to vested interests in the party – vigilantes who use the party’s hard line as a business or “God men” who use the saffron they wear to encroach on government land. Prime Minister Modi stands tall above this desperate fray for the crumbs of political power.

Sour grapes?

Detractors and cynics say it is hype which is keeping Modi in the stratosphere.  This is lazy analysis. There are three reasons why Modi has embedded himself into the public mind as the harbinger of a better future.

India’s Bill Clinton – responsive, charismatic peoples’ person

First, being of humble origins he feels the pulse of the people and responds to it. Demonetization was a temporary set-back for the economy and cost workers their wages or their jobs. But, they saw it as a plan to punish the corrupt and applauded the effort. Modi did not just rest on the laurel of public acclaim. He has successfully pushed the tax bureaucracy to unearth black money and investigate shady deals. Is this sufficient to end corruption? Clearly not. But it is sufficient to establish Modi’s credibility as having the gumption to take on the corrupt, rich and make them pay for their sins.

Neither Right, Left nor Liberal – for Modi, transactions matter, not ideology

Second, the expansion of social insurance schemes for the poor; progressive expansion of crop insurance; the 200 million Jan Dhan accounts opened; the switch to the direct transfer of benefits for the poor to their accounts; kick -starting the moribund highways program; the proposals to reform agriculture by legalizing the leasing out of land; freedom for farmers to market produce outside the clunky and corrupt, public sector Agricultural Marketing System; the boost in coal production by whipping the public sector Coal India; making Indian Rail more efficient with better services; the improved functioning of government offices – all serve to illustrate positive change.

Stellar stabiliser of the economy

Lastly, the Modi government’s biggest achievement has been to stabilize the economy. Wasteful public spending has been restrained by fiscal discipline; the growth momentum has been maintained and consumer price inflation kept low within the targeted 5 percent per year. New institutional mechanisms are in place now, with the Reserve Bank of India specifically charged to deal with the bad loans of public sector banks amounting to over 12 percent of their average assets.

But there are still promises to keep…

Critics of the government point to the unfulfilled promises on new jobs and the linked poor performance of industry and exports; lack of performance on the promised recovery of black money stored overseas and the continuing civil unrest at home in Kashmir and in the tribal belt, even though the BJP is now in power, directly or in an alliance, in these states. To be sure domestic violence – not least the violence injected by self-proclaimed vigilante groups- is worrisome.  The poor performance in exports is partly a function of a strong Rupee which makes exports uncompetitive but keeps imports, particularly oil, cheap – thereby restraining inflation.  High domestic interest rates protect small savings, particularly of pensioners; restrain the creation of yet another realty driven bubble economy and dissuades gold-plated, bank financed, industrial investment.

Talking freely with people, sharing and learning can build long term credibility

Modi in varanasi

Prime Minister Modi greets the people of Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh – his parliamentary constituency

Trade-offs between economic priorities are always contentious. The key is to evidence why government acts in a certain way and who benefits. Mere rhetoric will not do. It is here that the Modi government falters because of its irrational stand against spelling out how the outcomes of its policies benefit minorities. Consider that, ironically, Modi’s BJP has probably helped more poor Muslims and Dalits, than ever before, via financial inclusion, higher allocations for NREGA and the new crop and social insurance schemes. Yet, the government does not highlight this. Nor does it share granular data, whilst defending its track record on inclusion, which many regard as its Achilles heel. Talking with, not at the people, in an evidenced manner, about one’s achievements, especially when it can silence critics, is good. Try it.

A version of this blog is also available at http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/opinion-india/modi-unassailable-at-three/

 

The San Jose window

apple 2

photo credit: http://www.morror.uk.co

So what did the Silicon dudes, collectively representing around $500 billion in purchasing power, think of the case placed before them by the self-made, roughhewn yet charismatic Indian Prime Minister — the man with a penchant for the dramatic?

From the looks of it, they thought he was kosher. Someone they could talk turkey with. Of course they are pretty constrained in what they can do. They are businessmen — oddly all of them are men. Inflating their egos and appealing to them for “help” can soften them a bit. But, ultimately, business folks live and die by the shareholder wealth.

The good news is that India fits in well even on this metric. We have the numbers. We shall be the most populous country by 2030. More importantly, each of us would also have decent purchasing power by then — Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants each of us to have $13,500 per year in today’s value terms.

This is improbable. But even if we get to just half of that, which is possible, we would be as “well off” as China is today. That is not very rich by the standards of the rich, but definitely upper middle class — no mean achievement for a country whose diplomats still, habitually swear by the begging bowl approach in international negotiations.

An additional $50 trillion in purchasing power over 15 years makes all business drool — not just in the Silicon Valley. The annual revenues of the Fortune 500 companies is $ 12.5 trillion — a tidy sum that’s more than nine times India’s GDP. Okay, so now we know why all those kind business folk turned up dutifully to be with

Mr Modi. But why then did the Indian Prime Minister bother to go through with the dance? After all, if India is such an irresistible market, then shouldn’t the Fortune 500s be rushing in to occupy the 500,000 apartments which lie unoccupied today in India?

Two factors explain the asymmetry between the hubris at home and the fizz abroad.

First, Team India is a big ship. Stoking the fire in its oversized belly and changing course takes time. Until the crumbling “plumbing” is fixed, citizens will react to the bad smells reaching them. Fixing the leaks is still a work in progress as illustrated by the sermons delivered to the Prime Minister at his meet with the Fortune 500 crowd.

In contrast, business overseas view visitors much the same as co-passengers on a flight. This goes for both the older, preachy Fortune 500, who are classic bullies, or the more gentle, other-worldly yogis in Silicon Valley, adept at the “rope trick” of quietly raking in billions without a bottomline to support the extraordinary valuations of their stock. They will engage whilst the flight lasts, knowing they can end the conversation when they please. But anything more substantive is only on mutually acceptable terms — these being the “bottomline” for the “sunset community” in the Fortune 500 group and the “top line” for the Silicon geeks.

India presents more immediate potential for the “top line” obsessed Silicon entrepreneur. Their escalator is founded on growing the business, not solely much on growing profits. This is not to say that there are no profits to be made in India. But Asian companies from Japan, China, and Korea in sunset industries, are better placed to be responsive to the fragmented Indian market than a Fortune 500 corporate, which survive on scale not agility.

apple

photo credit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk

It is no wonder then that whilst Prime Minister warmed up instinctively to the Silicon Valley crowd. The interaction with the “500 dinosaurs” was stiff, formal and somewhat resigned, as in a divorce case, where both sides talk at each other rather than with each other.

Thankfully, Silicon Valley is more vital for India’s urgent “development” needs than the czars of Wall Street, Detroit or Houston. San Jose and New Mexico is about disruptive innovation. This “value” shapes business processes, supply lines and determines who the next “legend” will be. This resonates well with the “individualistic” Indian.

The electron is the best antidote for exclusion — the proverbial mongoose to the snake of elite privilege and patronage. Digital access democratises access to information and knowledge especially if customised in India’s 22 languages. Connecting 600,000 villages and all educational institutions with broadband will provide Internet access to all.

Nandan Nilekani’s UID is a game changer which is being actively expanded for the direct transfer of subsidy and to ease public transactions. Its power lies in its ability to target public interventions narrowly, much like a micro-surgeon.

Digital access enhances communication and remote participation even in local events, a feature crucial for a country of domestic migrants, where 25 per cent of the people live away from where they were born.

The proposed digital archiving of individual data-identity, health and education records in secure “lockers” liberates the marginalised in particular who have no permanent residence, live in insecure places and are frequently required to produce these documents for temporary jobs and to access public services.

For the elite personalised service via human interaction elevates their own sense of entitlement. But a dalit, whose very shadow is abhorrent to some, may prefer an impersonal, indeed robotic, neutral, service provider, like an ATM which is available 24×7 to suit varying work schedules. Street dwellers will be the first to benefit from lower pollution if tele-meetings and remote work cuts the need to commute. The primary beneficiaries of tele-medicine will be remote villages where all they have today is the village “Bengali” doctor.

Information trawled from social media by specialist apps helps to counter terror, manage disasters better and get real time feedback on the quality of public services.

Digital India is the key to critical aspects of inclusive development, enhancing the “efficiency” of public investment and more “decent” jobs.

But this is not the real reason why Prime Minister Modi is happiest talking “new” technology. Behind his stern “Samurai” exterior lies a romantic, who believes that empowered individuals — the quintessential “Marlboro” person can change the world. To do this San Jose is a far better door to walk through than Wall Street. Don’t be surprised if you see him at the “Burning Man” festival — the new technology parallel to the old world Davos — a fun meet of the free spirited and those who imagine a better world, held annually in the Nevada desert, over the Labor day weekend.

burning man

photo credit: heraldsun.au.com

Adapted from the article by the author in Asian Age October 1, 2015

BJP, take five!

BJP

(photo credit: archives.financialexpress.com)

Delhi Assembly election 2015 is beginning to resemble a Greek tragedy for the Bharatiya Janata Party. What a change from the national elections in May 2014 when the BJP shone in comparison to the inept Congress Party. The motley crew of small regional or local parties (like the Aam Aadmi Party) also could not measure up to the exhilaration created by Prime Minister Narendra Modi who seemed capable of moving the nation, if not the Earth itself, so long as he was given a long enough lever to do so. The people responded positively in ample measure.

But charismatic, centralised leadership, like Mr Modi’s today and Mrs Indira Gandhi’s earlier, whilst a huge advantage in national elections, cannot single handedly carry a local election. Delhi is likely to make this point to leaders yet again.

It is highly unlikely that the BJP will get a majority when the votes are counted on February 10, 2015.

Why did the BJP juggernaut fail in Delhi? Here are five reasons, which are also lessons for the future:

First, there is no substitute for an empowered, decentralised leadership in state-level elections. National parties are, by their very nature, highly centralised. This is why their only option is continuous micro-management by a central election committee. In the instant case of the BJP in Delhi, this was left till too late. The media blitz, the frenetic campaigning, the Cabinet ministers unleashed in end January to make up for inept local leadership, all reinforced the general impression of panic at the BJP high table and a crass attempt at wooing the voter purely for electoral gain.

Second, never underestimate your opponent. The BJP, which has a very thin leadership, got completely engrossed in its grand project of governing India and forgot that local votes have to won locally. The fact that the BJP won all the Lok Sabha seats in Delhi by hanging onto Mr Modi’s coat tails should not have induced the lethargy it did.

In comparison, Arvind Kejriwal never let his guard down. He also had the advantage that the AAP got purged of interlopers, self-servers and free-lunchers; all of whom left it when its prospects seemed dim, post May 2014 debacle in the Lok Sabha elections.

Lean and hungry, core AAP supporters kept up the leg work amongst the voters.  They refined their agenda to suit the Muslims, Christians and disenchanted Congress supporters and carried their message door to door. India loves a fakir (ascetic) and Muffler King Kejriwal resembles one, even from the tinted window of his new Toyota Innova.

Third, performance matters. The BJP’s biggest handicap in Delhi is the non-performance of the Union Territory’s three municipal corporations ruled by it. These entities are dens of corruption and completely erode the national image of the BJP as being relatively above corruption. Prime Minister Modi came to power on the performance plank. But the sordid reality in these three local bodies did not change, not even in the last nine months of direct management by the Union government, significantly diluting the BJP promise of good governance.

Fourth, stopping petty corruption yields high dividends. The instant “governance reform”, to the relief of Delhi’s “underbelly” (street hawkers, small shopkeepers, auto drivers, casual workers, petty contractors), during the 49 days of the AAP government meant the complete stoppage of harassment by the police and municipal corporations. Once Mr Kejriwal resigned and governance devolved upwards to the Union government, petty corruption returned in full force. This reinforces the impression that Mr Modi’s extraordinary executive capacity and expansive aspirations for India are not reflected in the rest of the leadership of the BJP.

In comparison, the AAP got “tempered” in defeat. They humbly accept that they erred in resigning. They appear more politically savvy. They kept up their strategy of ground-level contact and are hungry for power. The belief is strong that an AAP government will enforce “freedom from petty corruption”.

Fifth, Delhi is a city of “winners” and winners do not take kindly to subaltern rule. Delhi has the highest per capita income in the country. Its public services are both highly subsidised and of superior quality than elsewhere. It is not surprising, therefore, that it has been a “destination city” for the last two decades. Delhi comprises people who have self-selected themselves as “winners”: by entering government service through an exactingly competitive process; migrating from the surrounding areas with “fire in their belly” to earn a better life and small and medium scale business people in tourism, hospitality, IT and exports. These are highly entrepreneurial people and expect to see the same quality in their leader.

Mumbai is no different. Maharashtra’s chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is so conscious of his relative youth (he is 44) and inexperience that he takes every opportunity to dispel the notion that he is just a shoo-in of Prime Minister Modis. He needs to do that if he is to govern the proud Maharashtrians credibly.

In Kiran Bedi, the BJP had an independent, high profile, outspoken candidate for chief minister. But she was muzzled and has looked progressively more forlorn since her nomination on January 15. Gone is the assertive confidence. The Bedi baan (arrow) has been tamed into a submissive, humble “subaltern”, basking only in the reflected glory of the Prime Minister. Not quite what she has been thus far.

In the change from being a leader to becoming a dutiful subordinate, Ms Bedi lost her edge to inspire. She now closely resembles any of the many “subaltern” leaders of the Congress, none of whom are encouraged to have an identity larger than the party. She is likely to suffer the same fate. She will have to wait for the tide to raise the BJP boat again before she can have a go at political power, most likely at the national level.

Finally, is the BJP’s likely poor show in Delhi a harbinger of what will happen in Bihar? Nitesh Kumar’s Janata Dal (U) would do well to bear in mind the lessons from Delhi’s elections.

The BJP is today India’s only real national party. Fighting the “Gir Lion” needs more than development statistics and caste calculations. Time to put the JD(U) boots on the ground to5work.

Reposted from the Asian Age February 6, 2014 <http://www.asianage.com/columnists/bjp-take-five-497&gt;

BJP dials 100, Bedi to the rescue

(Reposted from the Asian Age January 21- http://www.asianage.com/columnists/bjp-dials-100-bedi-rescue-021)

bedi_kejriwal

(photocredit: sahilonline.org)

The DNA of Kiran Bedi and the Bharatiya Janata Party seem twinned at birth. Bolly-wood films thrive on the “masala” (formula) of twins separated at birth but reunited after an epic struggle with a happily tear-jerking end. The BJP and Ms Bedi finding each other after so long is real life imitating art.

For both, “discipline” comes with a capital D. They share a strong belief in the ability of large, efficient organisations to provide direction and in the efficacy of formal rules and regulations to manage society.

“Crane” Bedi could as well have been known as “danda” Bedi. Armed only with a wooden baton, she single-handedly charged at a bunch of unruly, sword-wielding Akali protesters in Delhi. The BJP is similarly admired for strong leadership and decisive action.

Kiran Didi mesmerises kids just as Mr Modi does. In both these leaders kids see a strong, stern but clear-headed “parent” with a consistent idea of what to do next and the ability to prescribe, what seems to be, a winning game plan. They have a common bias for acronyms (Kiran Didi’s 6Ps — police, prisons, prosecution, people, parents and press — compete with Mr Modi’s 3Ds — democracy, demography and demand) and a shared communication style of keeping the message simple: Hard work, discipline, steadfast goals and an alert mind ready to grab any opportunity being the mantra for advancement.

Business people, Punjabi refugees, professionals, the “sarkari” middle class and all those with a stake in preserving the status quo form the core urban constituency of the BJP in Delhi. They all look on Kiran Didi with approval. She is a Punjabi herself; a self-made professional who strove to excel at whatever she did and ensured that she got recognised for her achievements. Professional aggression, ambition and, above everything else, success, is what this core constituency adores. These attributes Ms Bedi has in plenty.

Given more time, Ms Bedi could have consolidated the woman vote behind her. She is today a mélange of what many young girls dream to be a mother, a successful government officer, an outspoken social activist, a TV personality, a politician and, implicitly, very much part of the Delhi elite.

But time is scarce with barely three weeks to go for the polls on February 7, 2015. Indeed, the fact that time was running out is what induced the unorthodox induction of a “rank outsider” into the BJP, ostensibly to lead the campaign and, possibly, eventually become the chief minister. Galling as it must be for Mr Modi that his name was not enough to pull in votes in Delhi, the fact is that the BJP must look at systematic dispersal of power and responsibility if they are to win in Bihar and later in Uttar Pradesh.

This, in fact, is the way it has been thus far. BJP chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh or Maharashtra do not view themselves as subordinate to the Prime Minister, at least not yet and certainly not in the manner the hapless, erstwhile Congress chief ministers were with regard to Sonia Gandhi.

The induction of Kiran Didi should also be read as a sign that Mr Modi is not averse to modernising the BJP and aggressively broad-basing its membership beyond the rather obscure agenda of the Sangh. Mr Modi seems to be working towards reinventing the BJP as a party of the right, committed to small government functioning on the P4S principle of private sector-led growth, security, sustainability, social protection and passive secularism.

Both the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party have their core support base intact in Delhi. It is the direction of swing in the erstwhile Congress supporters — Poorvanchali migrants, scheduled caste, scheduled tribes and the Muslims which will determine the vote change this time around.

Ms Bedi’s induction into the BJP is a game changer because, first, she has the star appeal and freshness to attract the middle class supporters of the AAP who were disappointed with Arvind Kejriwal’s reluctance to rule in 2013 and in whose eyes Mr Kejriwal became an opportunistic quitter. Many were coming around to the idea of giving him a second chance rather than support a “traditional party” like the BJP. Now they see in Ms Bedi an alternative, the manifestation of a “new” BJP just as AAP was in 2013.

Second, Ms Bedi shall attract the wavering, non-Muslim Congress supporters who are rudderless today with the demise of the Delhi Congress. For aspirational women and the educated professional, Ms Bedi’s BJP seems to be the true inheritor of the Congress’ erstwhile mantle of stability and development which kept it in power for 15 long years (1998-2013).

Third, the BJP’s core base is unlikely to reject the “outsider” Ms Bedi who exudes success and brims with optimism. Too much is made of the disaffection of the old-time Delhi BJP leaders. These are long-term political players, honed in the Sangh’s discipline to never break ranks. In any case, they can easily be assured that Ms Bedi is only “transiting” through Delhi to enter the national government, where she would get more traction. Police, land and housing in Delhi are all dealt with by the Union government. In fact, the Delhi government is more like an empowered metropolitan authority rather that an Indian state.

With the Congress in decline, Delhi elections are a face-off between the BJP and the AAP. The AAP 2013 phenomenon was a unique convergence of the middle class and Delhi’s “underbelly” votes. But even this coalition was not sufficient to get AAP a clear majority. This time around the AAP will be boosted by significant Muslim support which earlier kept the Congress in power. But even within the AAP’s core support base they will have to contend with Ms Bedi attracting women voters.

Ms Bedi is a powerful role model and a convincing administrator to assure the empowerment of women and their protection, not least because of her linkages with the police.

If Kiran Didi can project herself as the “face” of the “new BJP” — forward-looking, effective, gender sensitive, socially progressive, honest and committed to equitable development — she may well nudge the BJP towards forming the government in Delhi.

The Bedi baan (arrow) unleashed by Mr Modi is sure to give sleepless nights to “King Kejriwal” as he trawls the slums of Delhi to keep his flock intact.

Why spend more on babus? 7th Pay Commission

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Babus are looking forward to another bonanza, courtesy the 7th Pay Commission, which the previous government constituted just before demitting office. The armed forces, always better organized, are first off-the-mark with an earmarked Pay Cell already created, headed by a two star General, to lobby for better terms and conditions. Other Unions and Associations will also gather themselves together, once PM Modi signals the go-ahead.

Here are five reasons why he should not do so.

First, the history of Pay Commissions (the first was in 1946 with the rest following almost every ten years) validates that they achieve very little beyond finding the lowest commonly agreeable formula, for farming out pay increases to babus and the armed forces.   Never has the pay increase been linked to higher productivity or even to aggregate measures of productivity, like economic growth. Growth, admittedly an overly-broad measure, is now on the downslide and expected to remain that way for at-least another two years. Aam admis find it difficult to swallow, that babus should get paid more, whilst they themselves are struggling to make ends meet.

Second, babus have been getting 100% inflation neutralization twice a year, since 1996. The dreaded inflation (often itself the outcome of loose fiscal control and inefficient expenditure policies) consequently, flows-off babu backs, like water-off a duck, but swooshes down onto aam admis and makes their life miserable. The biggest sufferers are the 700 million poor.

The urgency for another increase in the “real” pay of babus is difficult to justify, in a strained fiscal environment, where subsidies have to be gradually moderated and administered prices of petroleum products, electricity, fertilizers increased-all of which stoke inflation.

Government also has to increase the tax-GDP ratio in 2014-15 to provide the funds needed for stepping up long forgotten defence equipment; higher outlays for education, health, sanitation, water and infrastructure; all this within a fiscal envelope which does not further aggravate inflation. Increasing existing babu compensation, in real terms, will only stoke the flames of inflation.

Third, if the government feels that the existing pay structure does not promote efficient functioning, it has only to look at the reports of the past two commissions. Both Commissions recommended excellent measures for linking pay enhancement to productivity, which remain unimplemented. The Administrative Reforms Commission did similar stellar work in 2008. Throwing more money at the problem of inefficiency is a highly ineffective way of trying to deal with it, which is bound to fail. Better to brush the dust of previous research and get down to implementation.

Fourth, less than 4% of India’s working age population of 500 million (ILO) is employed by government. The total formal sector employment (including in government) is less than 10%. Unlike government, in the rest of this “labour aristocracy” there is no assured inflation indexing and individuals have to justify every year, why employers should even neutralize inflation let alone give them an additional increase in “real” pay.

The residual 90% of other workers live in a jungle, where they survive by their wits, with no help from law or regulation. The Minimum Wage Act is a non-functional piece of legislative gloss, which is regularly contravened in the unorganized sector. None of us, including babus and politicians, who employ household help or buy products made in the informal sector, where “sweat labour” is the norm, walk-the-talk, by being willing to pay the prescribed minimum wage rates.  Even the lowest level of compensation in government is way above the minimum wages.

Fifth, the process of babu pay determination has acquired a routine automaticity, which needs to be disrupted. Opponents of abandoning the business-as-usual stance, argue that the outcome of stagnating babu pay in real terms will be higher levels of corruption. This is difficult to buy. Despite the consistent increase in babu pay since 1952, corruption has also grown not decreased. Babus, even at the leadership level, including the previous PM, “passively accepted” corruption, even if they have not actively associated themselves with the loot. They have not endeared themselves to aam admis by such behavior.

PM Modi has already started the process of interacting directly with babu-level chains of command and demanding from them, measurable, targeted performance, aligned with the government’s priorities. Pay rewards should follow only in 2018 (one year prior to elections in 2019) if performance improves.

Between now and then, the government should start publishing Annual Service Delivery Report Cards for every urban ward and every rural village, listing the manner in services have improved. Pay rewards beyond 100% inflation indexing (which already exists) should come only if the citizen reports show improvements from 2015 to 2017.

Let’s apply the same “value for money” standards to public finance, which resonate so well with our personal lives, vividly captured in the “kitna daite hai” (how many miles does it go in a liter of fuel?) metric, popularized by MARUTI.      

Wooing Pakistan; India’s “less friendly” neighbor

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(photo credit: post.jagran.com)

PM Modi’s external affairs team has hit the ground running; making friends and influencing people in the region. His visit to Bhutan and Sushma Swaraj, External Affairs Ministers’ forthcoming visit to Dhaka, build on links forged previously. These are relatively “low hanging fruit” to show that we want to be part of a friendly neighborhood. PM Modi said as much in Thimpu when, borrowing from  Acemoglou D. (2012), he stressed the criticality of “good neighbors” for gross happiness

But you can’t choose your neighbor and Pakistan is the biggest. It is a mixed blessing that Pakistan is defined politically by the province of Punjab and its heart beats in Lahore. Our blighted common history is most deeply etched in the minds of Punjabis. The upside is that PM Nawaz Sharief has a natural proclivity to develop his province; Punjab. In our Punjab, the BJP has an ally in the Akali Dal. Defence Minister Jaitley has laid claim to his Punjabi heritage and is likely to grow his links with Amritsar. Most importantly, our Punjab has been in relative decline since the 1990s; an outcome of poor fiscal management (Aiyer.S.2012 CATO) by both the Congress and the Akalis. Too many freebies and too little revenue wrecked Punjab, despite its robust agriculture; medium scale industry and vibrant entrepreneurship.

The immediate problem is jobs for unemployed youth. Economic prosperity allows a decent standard of life for even the unemployed young due to family wealth. But drugs and alcohol addiction are the downsides for directionless young people; too rich to work in the manual and semi-skilled jobs available. Rapid industrial growth is the answer for “quality jobs”.

Trade and investment normalization, between Pakistan and India, can immediately benefit the two Punjabs in volumes which could be significant for the two entities. When we expand the analysis to the national level, the welfare gains reduce and point to an imbalance in favor of India. The full potential for trade  is estimated at around USD 20 billion or ten times what it is today, by ICRIR (2013), FICCI (2012), CUTS (2012) and Hafeez Pasha, a previous Finance and Commerce Minister of Pakistan, now Dean of the School of Social Sciences, Beaconhouse National University, Lahore.

This would still be only 6% of India’s total trade but nearly one half of Pakistan’s total trade. It is unlikely that Pakistan would want to be in the precarious position of being dependent on India’s market to that extent. The realistic bound for trade level is consequently much lower. But this makes it of less interest nationally. Since the business opportunity comes with the considerable risks of insecurity and the adverse impact of an uneven keel in diplomatic ties, businessmen are justified in spending even less time on it.

To complicate matters, the central government in India is no longer in the drivers’ seat. Business opportunities are best defined outside the ambit of government sponsorship and regulation, not within it.  Shrinking fiscal space narrows the opportunities for “directed entrepreneurship” of the Chinese kind. Increasing levels of fiscal federalism and enhanced private investment has strengthened the role of state (provincial) governments in industrial development. Local labour and land regimes have become key to private investment.

Pratap Singh Kairon, Chief Minister of post-partition Punjab (including Haryana and Himachal Pradesh) was famous for micro managing economic development and inviting industrial investment to, what was then, a dusty, rural, unskilled hinterland, a mere adjunct to the urban marvel of Lahore, which still shines as a jewel. But successive governments in Indian Punjab have grown it into the granary of India by utilizing its comparative advantage. It is now time to pool the resources of the two Punjabs to mutual advantage.

Naysayers and conspiracy theorists will point to the downside of closer ties between the two Punjabs providing a basis for the break-away of an amalgamated Punjab from India. Either due to the allegedly “burning” desire of Pakistani elites to undo the shame of the break-away of East Pakistan, by amalgamating our Punjab into Pakistan. Alternatively, but less likely, the theory goes, this could happen due to the efforts of the Khalistani’s to become a separate nation.

Break-aways from India are a romantic’s fantasy, both in Kashmir and in Punjab. Both Kashmiri’s and Punjabis have much more to lose by breaking away from India, than there is to gain, by either carving a separate identity or amalgamating with Pakistan. “Landlocked” developing countries are more prone to fail, as separate nations, for a variety of reasons. Paul Collier (2007).  Punjab and Kashmir qualify on that count.

India’s Punjab, Haryana and Delhi have a combined GDP of around USD 190 billion; broadly similar to the GDP of Pakistan. 85% of Pakistan’s GDP is derived from Punjab and Sindh and 54% of the population is Punjabi.

Punjabiat” is consequently a significant force in forging closer links. But historian Zoya Hassan warns against falling into the trap of assuming that cultural history and identities on both sides of the border alone can drive the future. The political architecture; composition of the elites and aspirations have diverged considerably, since 1947. Notwithstanding the loss of close cultural similarities, economic cooperation provides a firm and sustainable basis for growth and positive welfare benefits on both sides of the border.

It may be wise to be practical rather than romantic or aggressive in identifying what is possible even with the bon-homie current prevailing between the two PMs. Three generic principals can help to make identification of the entry points.

First, trade and investment liberalization can never come at the expense of decreasing levels of security. Any adverse impact must be swiftly containable. This implies that normalization proposals must preclude the proliferation of generalized person-to-person contact.

Second, the proposal must be tightly monitorable. This implies its implementation in a defined and sanitized environment.

Third, it must provide real benefits-jobs and business to local populations along both sides of the border.

All three conditions are met if India proposes a jointly administered industrial hub along the Punjab border with a target of creating 1 million jobs and a turnover of USD 40 billion. This could be an EPZ linked both to Karachi and Mumbai or a combination of an SEZ and production for meeting domestic demand. Naturally 100% FDI would be available with attendant harmonized tax structures.

Since farmers on both sides complain of poor productivity, due to the insecurities of a border area, getting land should not pose difficulties. This would be made easier if displaced farmers are offered commercial incentives in real estate development. The facility could link into the proposed Amritsar to Calcutta and the Delhi to Mumbai industrial corridors on the India side.  

Like Pakistan, which faces growing fiscal pressure from dwindling external aid and has to meet the demands of its demographic dividend, the Akalis are under pressure in Punjab to shape up or ship out. The Defence Minister, Jaitley fell prey to this public disenchantment with the Akalis by failing to get elected from Amritsar. Time for Mr. Badal to act before he and Punjab miss the bus yet again.     

 

 

Spicing the Pak-India “Punjabi Tango” with Gujarati Dandia could yield results.

 

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(Photo credit: outlookindia.com)

The Pak-India affair is almost as tiresome as the Israeli-Palestine impasse.   Neither party can pull apart nor do they live together in peace. Successive governments on both sides start a peace initiative at the beginning of their terms, only to lapse into status-quo near the end-defeated by the inertia of babus and elite interest on both sides.

For most of India, south of the Vindhayas and East of the Yamuna, Pakistan remains a distant and intractable land. For the average Pakistani, India is a bully, growing muscular by the day, bent upon destabilizing Pakistan.

It doesn’t help that for all practical purposes, Pakistanis and North Indians are very alike.  They share the same values and prejudices. The daily “show” of faux aggression at the border post of Attari, near Amritsar, illustrates the brawny culture on both sides. Border guards on both sides face off in a peculiar, mirror image, “Punjabi Tango” of choreographed, muscle and moustache to the accompaniment of lusty words of encouragement of their country people. But the bravado ends tamely, with both sides trotting off to their own quarters, their duty done.

The similarities extend to the mirror, comparative advantages of the two countries; near similar human capital development levels, low income levels and low natural resource endowments. Also similar are the barriers to growth, vast inefficiencies in government and elite capture; by the agro-military-industrial complex in Pakistan and by the agro-industrial elite in India.

Both economies have benefited from adoption of the “open economy” model of growth since the mid 1980s. India more so than Pakistan, which has been constrained over the last two decades by its preoccupation with Afghanistan and its own war on terror-albeit some of it, of its own making. As Bhindrenwale was to Indira Gandhi, the Taliban has become for Pakistan; an out of control Tiger.

The first casualty of insecurity is investment-both public and private-especially in infrastructure. Long payback periods are unsuitably risky if revenue streams become uncertain. More importantly, with the world increasingly in the “open economy’ mode, there are easier business pickings elsewhere. The 21st century belongs to growth in Africa and that is where business is rushing to be, both Indian and Pakistani.

It is not surprising therefore, that trade between Indian and Pakistan is minimal and stagnant, relative to the total trade of both countries. Pakistan exports only 1% of its total goods to India and only 4% of its imported goods are Indian. Of course, the official data underestimates the actual trade through third countries and destinations. Both could benefit by cutting out the intermediaries margin and higher transportation cost of acceptable third party destinations. Non-tariff barriers on both sides; poor trade infrastructure and low financial integration make even the best cross border trade intentions die. Cross border investment is yet to be a reality.

Why then bother at all to disrupt the convoluted stalemate of the past five decades? Here are three good reasons:

First, Pakistan estimates (Economic Survey 2013-14) that it loses up to 3% of its GDP due to insecurity, bleeding it of nearly one half of its potential GDP growth. For India, an insecure Western border is expensive. The geo-politics of Pan-Islamic militancy unsettles its domestic, plural aspirations.

More generally, “including the poor” is a common challenge for both countries. The last thing, either could possibly want, is to add the cost of managing terror to that long list of unproductive, resource draining preoccupations.

Second, India and Pakistan both gain by operationalizing the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. This has been on the agenda for the last two decades and 2018 is the new aggressive target. Both economies are deficient in gas, a clean and versatile fuel for power generation, domestic use and industrial purposes. India loses 0.5% of its GDP every year due to shortage of peaking power capacity. Perversely, domestic coal supply shortages and the high cost of imported coal and LNG keeps installed capacity idle. The TAPI pipeline, would meet around 20% of our gas demand till 2030.

Third, the lack of Pak-India economic integration provides a ready opportunity to China; the “big Panda in the room”, to deepen the economic “silos” with each integrated independently to China, but not to each other. This is already happening. Whilst trade between India and Pakistan stagnates, trade between China and Pakistan is booming, as is trade between China and India.

Of course China is the world’s factory. It aggressively supplies price competitive goods, well suited to the limited pockets of developing countries. Chinese trade comes with generous financial outlays to develop and manage strategic infrastructure; Gwadar Port in Baluchistan (linking the Middle East to China in a trade and energy corridor) and the offer to build high speed railways and highways in India.

Both Pakistan and India will accept much needed foreign capital and investment from anyone who offers it. That is the wise thing to do commercially. But it makes strategic sense to also develop alternative trade and investment opportunities in their “near abroad”. Infrastructure development is a great facilitator for growth. But it also has enduring legacy value. It determines the future spatial spread of growth and jobs along economic corridors. It is sobering to remember that Karachi Port is nearer to Delhi and Amritsar than is Mumbai.

Democracy is great for transparency but is a killer for negotiations, strategic deals and moving on, which are best done in privacy. This is a limitation for PakIndia normalization. The history of distrust and animosity extends far beyond the cricket field. Babu led governments become hostage to the “agency problem”. The narrow self-interest of the managers drowns the real interests of those they represent.

Progress can only come from “disruptive innovation” by leaders. It’s PM Modi’s call. A dash of Gujarati Dandia could spice up the frozen-in-time “Punjabi Tango” to produce results.  

 

The new Modi fan club

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Hindus, across caste lines, believe that the Modi Sarkar will usher in better times. But there is disquiet amongst the Muslims, in particular, but also amongst Christians. Both religions are of foreign origin and linked to religious regimes located elsewhere. They fear the whip-lash of a possible “India for Hindus” sentiment akin to the “Africa for Africans” sentiment in the 1970s, leading to the exodus of non-Africans. Also a consolidation of Hindu votes can make minorities less politically relevant as a vote bank.

Such fears are understandable. The potential for anti-foreign religious mania builds on the traditional Indian geo-political stance of self-determination and against “domination” by external actors. Nehru, a romantic, shunned geo-political alliances and grew the idea of “non-alignment”. Indira Gandhi, was more practical and whipped up phobia against the “invisible” hand of the West in geo-politics and leaned towards the obliging Soviets.

The BJP view on geo-politics is no different from that of the Congress in the recent past or indeed that of the Chinese; to do everything which builds the domestic economy and secures the country’s interests. However, there is one variation in the BJP strategy, which finds no place in that of the “secular” Congress.

Just as Amma’s geo-political stance is determined by how it affects Tamil interests (in the context of Sri Lanka), the BJP is likely to boldly pursue the cause and interests of Hindus overseas. Is this horribly unsecular?

Those who think so, must consider who else would weigh-in when Hindus are denied human rights in religious States like Pakistan or the Middle East? India is where Hinduism has developed and it is extremely odd that the Indian government should shy away from this duty. Should not a “secular” BJP be similarly proactive in protecting the rights of persecuted Christians in Egypt or South Sudan for instance, or allegedly persecuted Muslims in France or the US?

Whilst siding with a generic commitment to the Human Rights doctrine, the BJP rightfully believes that it is for States (much stronger than India in economic and political clout), which ascribe to these religions, to do this front line job. These nations do so in any case, even in the context of alleged human rights violations of Indian Muslims and Christians. In contrast the Hindus have no one, except India, to bat for them.

“Secularism” has acquired a shrill, hollow, politicized tone in India, which is at variance with our global interests. This is not to say that India should change the Constitution and become a Hindu State. Far from it. Secularism, in so far as the relationship between the State its citizens is concerned, should become even more sanitized of religious dogma to reassure Indian minorities.

The State must disengage totally from all religions, starting with religious rituals at State functions. Multi religious prayers and the construction of temples, mosques or churches in government buildings, especially the defence forces and police establishments, must be shunned. Warships should be launched, not by breaking coconuts on their hulls, but by a secular ritual. At state funerals, a clear distinction must be drawn between the role of the State, the party and the family concerned. The State must withdraw from the function, once religious rituals take over. The display of calendars with gods, goddesses and religious symbols must be banned in public offices and a code of religious conduct introduced for public servants.   

The romantic notion that the State can “adopt” all religions and yet remain secular, is fanciful and lies at the root of competition between religious denominations, for privileges, government funds and political power.

Has Indian “secular double-speak” been conclusively defeated in the 2014 elections? Unfortunately no. The political cleavages between Hindus and Muslims remain as deep as ever. Caste based politics has been papered over but remains a potent political instrument at the sub-national level. 

The BJP remains essentially a Hindu party. The real political conundrum facing it, is whether proactive outreach to secular Muslims and secular Christians, is likely to compromise its appeal to its new pan-Hindu, caste rainbow, voter base?

The longtime BJP supporter; Punjabi refugees from the Partition (now on the demographic wane); the Banias; Pandits and Thakurs of North India and a smattering of in-between castes, no longer constitute the bulk of BJP supporters. The baton has passed to aspiring youth frustrated by the lack of decent jobs; shoddy public facilities and a poor quality of life. These voters increasingly gel along classic, class lines. Kejriwal shrewdly tapped into their frustration but did not have the mind space to lead them. Modi has stepped into this breach and scaled up the strategy nationally.

But one major problem the BJP faces is that it’s “traditional Indian” image does not square with the aspirations of the modern Indian woman. This antediluvian caricature of ‘Indianess” and the role and relative status of a woman, is derived mostly from the BJP’s base in the North, where the status of women is the worst. Under Modi’s leadership, hopefully, the more enlightened, gender neutral cultural norms of Hindus in the West, South and the East of India shall prevail.

After all, unlike other leaders of his generation, Modi encouraged Jashodabehn to get educated and self-actualise, just as he was trying to do. But now the battle is done. Both Modi and Jashodabehn have voluntarily sacrificed their marriage and it is time to acknowledge their unbreakable bond of friendship and mutual respect. Jashodabehn is Modi’s biggest fan. She should not be discouraged from being so publicly.

Finally what of the poor, all 700 million of them, who earn less than US$2 per day. Modi was one of them and they are his primary constituency, irrespective of religion or caste. This must reflect in the government’s policy on reservations and positive affirmation in general, through a poverty criterion.  

There are three things the poor fear most of all; (1) insecurity, (2) inflation and (3) financial shock. They are the least prepared and the most exposed to all three. The Modi agenda already assures that social protection schemes, started by previous governments, will be made more effective, not shut down. If he can kick start domestic manufacturing by systematically cutting red tape and encouraging babus to deliver; boost infrastructure construction through public finance; incentivise tourism and private investment, the poor can be assured of a steady supply of decent jobs.  We need to generate 10 million a year.

One hopes that the false pride, associated with an appreciating exchange rate or hollow but unsettling jingoism, will not scuttle the sustained development of an internationally competitive, Indian economy. Modi is a practical man and a master strategist. He shall not be found wanting. Ache din aa gaye hain.

 

Saffron India

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The saffron deluge has taken everyone by surprise, like an early monsoon. The Modi storm carried away with it, anyone who rode with him and demolished all others, barring regional stalwarts like Amma, Naveen Patnaik and Didi.

Is this the end of caste as a political weapon? With Bhenji (Dalit supremo), Netaji (Ahir supremo-UP), Lallu (Ahir supremo-Bihar), Ajit Singh (Jat supremo-UP) all biting the dust and even Haryana going saffron, are voters taking caste out of national politics? Could this be stretched to say saffron can make the country less divisive- top downwards? Is there a hope that the next step could be to take caste out of state level politics? Well that clearly is Modi’s dream. But there are limits to Hindu integration and virtues in dissonance.

The democratic problem with an overwhelming mandate is that it reduces the opposition to a redundancy. In the extant case, saffron still has to contend with the Rajya Sabha where the NDA does not have a majority. More importantly, the recent Indian experience with huge majority governments has not been conducive for reforms. Of course coalitions are not a panacea for reforms either. The United Front coalitions of 1996 to 1998 were superbly ineffective. But the Janta Party wasted its massive 1977 win and Rajiv Gandhi frittered away the overwhelming sympathy vote in 1984. In comparison, significant economic reform happened only under the Narasimha Rao led coalition government in 1991; the Vajpayee led NDA government of 2000 and the Manmohan Singh led UPA I of 2004. There does seem to be a positive link between coalitions and economic reform. Possibly huge majorities induce comfort. The lack of competition douses the fire in the belly till ones time is up and it is too late.

Modi is not unused to huge mandates. After all he has led Gujarat for over ten years now. But it would be wise to pursue the idea of a “cabinet” of Chief Ministers and to engage proactively with the opposition. The last few years have seen rising inter-party acrimony making Parliament dysfunctional. To keep engaging, when not compelled to do so, is the best route to rebuild a national consensus on development priorities.

Modi is a man in a hurry, with an agenda to complete and too little time to do it in. It is consequently unlikely that he will let the baton slip. He would do well to use the UK-Tony Blair and Malaysia precedent and constitute small, vertically integrated, fully empowered, politico-technocratic teams with specific, measurable and time bound results expected from them. His secretariat is unlikely to be the laid back, free-wheeling entity it had become under Manmohan Singh, which reported to everyone but the PM. The expectation is that Modi will come to office with a pre-formulated agenda and a team to implement it doggedly.

Is the hoary city of Delhi likely to seduce him into somnolence? Again, very unlikely, given the cultural gulf tween the macho man from Mehsana and the pleasures on offer from the glitterati of Lutyens. His “quasi married” status is likely to generate many hours of speculation of who, if anyone, is likely to share 7 RCR with him.

The world will be waiting however, for any slip up on his management of the Muslim community. Whilst Modi seeks to treat all Indians the same and goes out of his way to say so, the fact is that to reverse the “selective appeasement” of the past will take time and fiscal space. Neither is available to him. This is where proxies and symbols can help to reassure minorities that he is their protector too. One important symbol will be his choice of the Home Minister, who whilst enjoying the full confidence of the PM, must be trusted by all segments of India.

Theorists will make much of the need for Modi to build or re-build institutions. This is very time consuming and effort intensive. Many of these (cabinet system; inner party democracy; the bureaucracy; federalism; the judiciary) were systematically destroyed during the long period of Indira Gandhi’s rule. Institutions do matter, particularly in a democracy, because they provide permanence in a politically unstable system. But in India we carry everything to extremes. No institution can atrophy and yet remain productive.

The central bureaucracy is one such institution. From the very beginning, it was merit oriented only at the point of entry. Even in that limited way, it did not respond to the socio-economic disabilities specific segments of India faced in getting in. This opaque, small, mostly male club can be transformed by introducing real competition at the top. This is from where the fish rots. All babu posts of Joint Secretary and above must be filled through open competition. It must be the PM (not the concerned Minister or the Department of Personnel) who must select the candidate, out of a short list of two, recommended by the UPSC. Each appointment must have a minimum tenure of three years with no job hopping allowed, even if more attractive lateral options become available.  

One new tradition, which must be reversed, is the “in your face” security apparatus. Modi was the highest security risk even before he became the PM. Now his security needs to significantly enhanced. But this challenge should be used as an opportunity to upgrade the security apparatus, rely on technology, intelligence and rapid response, rather than on a glut of gun totting men. It is only when the PM makes his security “invisible” that it will stop being the status symbol, it is today.

It will not be easy to rein in “privilege”, which is the life blood of an elitist, patrimonial State. But much of the rot we face today can be traced to this one, ubiquitous norm. Who better to try, than one who, like Bill Clinton, made it to the very top purely on merit?

What now Mr. Kejriwal?

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What was Kejriwal thinking on his flight back from Varanasi yesterday? Did he reflect on how difficult it is in a competitive environment to get a second chance? Where would he have been, had he not frittered away his government in Delhi for a notional presence pan-India?

Maybe he was caught up in the colorful, marketing jargon, which is so popular today, to explain the “why” and the “how “of politics in a four second TV byte. Maybe he believes that he has launched a Unilever style product-shampoo in a sachet-affordable even by the aam admi and that this will be the basis of a pan Indian political empire. A top down campaign, with credibility in Delhi, translating into votes everywhere in 2019 (?) or maybe even 2024? Maybe he pondered over how to leverage himself as a brand better- an anti-corruption crusader; a karamyogi who has sacrificed a brilliant career for public service; a Gandhi (Mahatma) incarnate; a 21st century social reformer?

Possibly he does not think in the self-serving calculus of electoral gain and loss and seeks only to elevate the level at which politics is played by opening a door for decent folk, who otherwise would never have sullied their manicured toenails in the keechad of politics where the lotus blooms and the Congress mucks about.

Alternatively, he may think that a pan India campaign could surely lay a solid ground for the Delhi elections when they are held. His entire national team, which must number now close to 20,000, could descend on Delhi (RSS style) and escort every AAP voter to their booth….if they haven’t already been captured by the RSS or a desperate Congress?

Maybe he actually thinks he will win in Varanasi-that niggling (what if) last thought that smuggles its way in, just as you have drunk the “nimbu pani” and eaten the “veg” sandwich and are drifting off to snooze land, your “jhadu topi” slanted over his eyes, to screen the bright sunshine out and your seat fully reclined.

Possibly he was working out strategies to convince the Delhi voter that voting AAP is not the same as pushing the NOTA button. That this time they would be there to stay and work, not run about like a consultant, signing contracts everywhere, but executing none satisfactorily.

Is it time, Mr. Kejriwal to merge into the great Indian political mela? Is it time to build alliances with like- minded parties? The left is your natural abode. For all your talk of supporting the private sector you are a quintessential public sector man. This happens often with those, like you, who know how rapacious and self-serving small business can be. You forget that the rapaciousness of the Indian Bania is not built into her genes. It is an outcome of surviving for centuries on their own with no one else to protect them or their assets, but themselves and in the face of a grasping State which seeks only to marginalize them in the name of modernity.

Business is often a “winner takes all” game and inevitably results in huge concentration of wealth in a few hands. This is why inequality has grown significantly all over the world as business has flourished. This will not set well with your fuzzy, socialism and “equity” over growth, orientation. Be clear for once. The aam admi can never hope to have an equitable share in the wealth generated, if private business is to grow the economy. The problem is that only private business can grow the economy. But whilst growth is inherently iniquitous there are ways to induce a modicum of equity by providing opportunities to everyone. There is no option to rapid growth……to borrow from Churchill’s take on Democracy. Your fuzzy philosophy and panchayat penchant will not be able to accept this hard fact. That is why common cause with the Left is best.

Of course no one wants to side with a loser. In fact mere association with the tired shibboleths of the Left, are enough to put any voter off. But then you will not find gold plated options for getting into government every day. Possibly you and your supporters could revitalize the tired, old, men and women of the Left with your youthful energy. You share many of the virtues of the Left; austerity; financial integrity; a mass contact strategy; cadre based functioning; inner party democracy, a concern for visible equity.

Alternatively you could also align with the BJP/RSS who also share these virtues. Both you and Modi appeal to the same, young, aspirational voter who has remained an “outsider”. But of course you do not align with anyone. Good luck Mr. Kejriwal.

 

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