governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation

Posts tagged ‘security’

Keeping our children safe

Kid security

Violent crimes against children are grabbing headlines. The latest is the sexual assault and murder of a student in a private school’s toilet in Haryana’s Bhondsi, near Gurgaon. However, Haryana is not the most dangerous state for kids. That dubious distinction belongs to Delhi, with a crime rate (crimes against children per 100,000 population) of 169. Chandigarh follows at 68. The safest states for kids, per the National Crime Records Bureau data, are Jharkhand, with a child crime rate of just three, followed by Bihar, at four.

Long term negative impacts of child abuse

The World Health Organisation estimates that in developed countries, six per cent of adult depression, alcohol and drug abuse; eight per cent of suicide attempts; 10 per cent of panic disorders and 27 per cent of post-traumatic stress disorders are due to abuse during the first decade of the victim’s life.

But there is scanty scientific evidence, in developing countries, of the drivers — the sources and location — of child abuse. David Finkelhor, a sociologist, tellingly comments that “there is more experimental science in the toilet paper we use every day, than in what we have to offer abused children or families at risk of abuse”.

Crime data

In India, where the general standards of personal security and protection of human rights are low and public resources are stretched, child abuse can easily become just another statistic. Crimes against children increased from 14,975 in 2005 to 94,172 in 2015. Over the same period, violent crimes increased at the rate of 5.5 per cent per year — much faster than the growth of the population. Sadly, the proportion of crimes against children to total violent crimes, increased from seven per cent in 2005 to 28 per cent in 2015. Our children are increasingly more unsafe.

With whom does the buck stop?

Preventing such crimes is a shared responsibility. Initiatives include regular oversight and counselling of risky families by specialised agencies; early identification of high-risk adolescents to aid them through high school; imparting life skills training to make children streetsmart and reducing access to alcohol, drugs and weapons.

Inevitably, poorer kids are more at risk than rich kids. The same applies to other population segments at risk — senior citizens and women. The well-off can cocoon themselves from a prevailing ecosystem of insecurity. But for other vulnerable groups, it is the State which must step in to offer protection.

First, increasing the effectiveness of policing aimed specifically at controlling crime on the street and in public spaces is the key. Predators seek out low-security havens — parks, lonely lanes and unoccupied spaces to strike. India is historically under-policed. The UN standard is 222 police personnel for every 100,000 population. India has never crossed 140. Singapore — that haven of orderliness, which all Indians marvel at — has 1,074; disciplined Japan has 207; the European Union has around 347 policemen per 100,000 population.

Even this aggregate data exaggerates the level of police available for citizen centric, local policing — beat patrols, traffic management, crime prevention, detection and investigation. In India 60 per cent of the police are occupied guarding government buildings and assets (such as CISF & RPF); patrolling the borders (BSF, ITBP, SSB); quelling riots, fighting insurgency or doing VIP bandobast (CRPF and state armed police). Local policing must be strengthened much, much more.

The police is too busy with other stuff

police action

Comprehensive police reform has never been tackled seriously despite a series of commissions — starting with the National Commission on Police Reform, 1978, and ending with the Second Administrative Reforms Commission, 2007, all of which recommend broadly similar measures. The police mandate is fractured between states and the Centre, leading to silo functioning. The Central police forces are significantly better resourced than the state police forces, though the latter are directly concerned with controlling crime. The buck often stops with the police. But they are poorly led. Senior police officers skip from helming one complex area to another, where they may have no prior experience and no long-term allegiance to the specialised force they command. Even junior officers and constables are neither specifically recruited nor are they permanently slotted in specialised areas, like crime detection and investigation; communications; community policing; traffic management; cyber security or intelligence and riot control.

The “danda” is still the primary instrument of policing

Second, the use of technology to identify high-risk locations and victim behaviour and profile potential predators is constrained by the low educational qualifications of the personnel. 86 per cent of the force consists of constables who have merely passed their Class 10 or at best Class 12 exams. The officer cadre is thin and inadequately skilled. Service conditions are terrible. Police personnel regularly do 10-hour to 14-hour long shifts, with no weekly time off. Police housing, of indifferent quality, is available only for just one-third of the personnel. Worse, the police force is highly politicised and tends to rely on fear and the use of brute force, rather than by earning the respect of citizens — a colonial hangover. These conditions are not conducive to attract committed, qualified recruits.

Too few first responders to save lives and manage trauma

PS tent

Third, improving the first responder reaction, can save lives and minimise damage by getting victims to healthcare facilities. But there are just 15,500 police stations across more than 650,000 villages and road links may not be the best. Of these nearly 10 per cent lack even a wireless link. There are only 164,000 vehicles with the state police forces. Their spread across locations is likely to be highly uneven and concentrated in the major cities.

Better oversight by government of security arrangements in schools

Other than improving policing, viable short-term options include better oversight by the government education departments over school administrations. Value-add community participation, like authorising Parent Teacher Associations to certify the school’s adherence to minimum safety and security standards, can help.

Decentralise security to groups of parents & kids

cop teaches

Get kids and parent groups to collectively enhance their own security. Readers may remember the captivating proactivity of kids in outwitting, admittedly bumbling, adult, minor criminals from the 1950s era, in Enid Blyton’s Secret Seven and Famous Five series. Fiction can become a reality — once the imagination and interest of the kids is ignited. Herein lies the fastest and most effective route to making our kids safe.

Adapted from the authors article in The Asian Age, September 15, 2017 http://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/150917/to-keep-our-kids-safe-all-have-a-role-to-play.html

 

Liberals; smell the coffee please

police

(photo credit: http://www.thehindu.com)

Liberals and human rights advocates are a queasy bunch with no stomach to face up to the honest truth that effective governance implies a better informed and more intrusive government.

Light handed regulation” is the mantra of neo-liberal economics. But such regulation fails unless the regulator can monitor compliance with the rule of law by acquiring more and better, real time data on individuals and business entities.

Take the simple case of ensuring that shop workers are not exploited by owners and get at least one weekly holiday and enjoy restricted, daily, working hours. The “heavy handed” manner this is done is by shutting entire markets down on a specific day and prescribing shop opening and closing hours. The “light handed regulation” option could give shop keepers the liberty to set their own working hours. But to protect workers’ rights, effectively, it would need to generate a real time centrally networked, database of cash transactions- to validate shop working hours and a bio-metric clock- doing the same for employees working hours.  How does this square with the Liberal preference for “small government”?

Consider the case of self-assessment by tax payers. Regulation cannot get lighter than that. But to be effective, it has to be coupled with predictable and significant sanctions against deviant behavior. This means generating a database, on each tax payer, comprising an effective audit trail of all financial transactions and a tax agent randomly trawling this data, using “red flags”, so that deviance can be detected and brought to trial.

Tracking phone call, social media, emails and physical movement of individuals all becomes part of “Big data” which needs to be captured to provide the information required for credible sanctions systems. This is especially necessary, in democracies like India, where all sanctions are appealable and hence must be backed by “judicial quality evidence”.

“Big data” does have unintended but positive outcomes. The clamour, amongst the elite,  for the status symbol of publicly provided, security guards can be greatly reduced, if “security” comes with a GPS enabled, real time, tracking of location and real time reporting, via a smart phone app, of whom the VIP is meeting as a routine procedure.

No Liberal would object to the installation of CCTV cameras where they live, to protect their lives and property. But this comes with the potential downside of intrusive government. Taking cameras closer to people generates “Big data”. Its value lies in the ability to constantly trawl it to prevent crime (or even natural disasters), by identifying “hot spots” and patterns of criminal behavior and to bring criminals to book. Constraints on individual privacy are inevitable. Also there is bound to be misuse, despite checks to prevent gaming; for example the illegal use of individual information, acquired for security purposes, to black mail individuals. There will always be “insiders”, who could trade off any inherent inefficiency in keeping “big data” secure.

Is Edward Snowden a traitor or an American hero? His country folk were divided on the fine point of the “tipping point” between an “insiders” duty to guard official secrets versus the citizens moral responsibility to fight “Big Government”. There is a stark choice between ensuring security and preserving individual freedom. Too much individual freedom (say the right to religious beliefs which may even bar or restrict social integration, as is available in India and the US) can be as negative as too little individual freedom (China, Russia) in the name of national security.

But the flash points where security collides with individual freedom are more often due to “entrenched privilege” being threatened, than the high ground of morality being squashed.  Indian Liberals, who willingly submit to racial profiling and body searches at US and UK immigration, are outraged if an Indian security personnel, so much as dares to question them about what they are carrying in their bags, whilst boarding domestic flights, trains or buses.

Of course most Liberals in India belong to the elite. For them the State and its officials are only to be suffered, not recognised. There is an implicit sense of “entitlement” amongst the elite, who expect to be “served”, even if they dodge their taxes. Much of this springs from the unfortunate spectacle, of fawning subordinates around a preening public official, in much the same manner, as courtiers may have supplicated before our erstwhile Maharajas.

Liberals mourn that there is too little reliance on “trust” and too much emphasis on “surveillance”. But isn’t it ironic, that in the US: the birth place of Liberal policy practices and “small government”, it is “legally enforceable contracts”, which are the life blood of social and even personal interaction. A society governed by “contracts” by definition, is a society which does trust anyone, including the State, to do the right thing.

It is the same with the theory of incentives. The fundamental basis of neo-liberal policy practice is to embed the correct “incentives” in regulations, which then elicit the desired behavioural outcomes associated with the desired results. The provision of artificially embedded incentives, as neo-Liberal policy practice seeks to provide, inevitably come with intrusive metrics of measurement because what is not measured can neither be sanctioned nor rewarded. Regulatory intrusion, big data and “big” government are the inevitable consequence.

In direct contrast, are systems which rely on “belief”, “religion” or “spirituality”. These seek to bind people to a higher morality and blind them to the needs of individuality. Communism is one such “belief” which relies on the morality of the State and not contracts. Of course, it also comes with high levels of State control and intrusive oversight by a bureaucracy of the faithful, exactly as any other religion.

The Liberal position becomes even more laughable when we consider the available “best practice” on poverty reduction; a key objective for developing economies. “Tightly targeted, cash transfers” to the poor is the latest mantra. But these have to be preceded by identification of the poor; close monitoring of their locations and current incomes. In fact, what this requires is a national database of the entire population of India so that we can segregate the poor from the non- poor; citizens from non-citizens and similarly along any other targeted classification (gender, caste, religion or spatial location). 25% of the Indian population is migratory. This requires “spatial location” enabled assessment of their current economic status since poverty levels vary across states. You can’t get bigger data than all these demographics on 1.25 billion people.

The loss of individual privacy is embedded in the logic of extensive digitization of information. Think of the benefits from being able to identify people uniquely; record their demographics (age, marital status, gender, health and education metrics) securely; store transactions securely and access the stored information instantly. If it is alright for the government to be intrusive versus the poor, why is it so horrible for the “privacy” of the rest to be invaded? The much touted right of the individual “to be forgotten” can exist versus other individuals (though how even that could be enforced is not known) but it must never exist against the State.

“Big data” and a better informed government are here to stay. Liberals should wake up and smell the coffee.

Saffron India

Image

The saffron deluge has taken everyone by surprise, like an early monsoon. The Modi storm carried away with it, anyone who rode with him and demolished all others, barring regional stalwarts like Amma, Naveen Patnaik and Didi.

Is this the end of caste as a political weapon? With Bhenji (Dalit supremo), Netaji (Ahir supremo-UP), Lallu (Ahir supremo-Bihar), Ajit Singh (Jat supremo-UP) all biting the dust and even Haryana going saffron, are voters taking caste out of national politics? Could this be stretched to say saffron can make the country less divisive- top downwards? Is there a hope that the next step could be to take caste out of state level politics? Well that clearly is Modi’s dream. But there are limits to Hindu integration and virtues in dissonance.

The democratic problem with an overwhelming mandate is that it reduces the opposition to a redundancy. In the extant case, saffron still has to contend with the Rajya Sabha where the NDA does not have a majority. More importantly, the recent Indian experience with huge majority governments has not been conducive for reforms. Of course coalitions are not a panacea for reforms either. The United Front coalitions of 1996 to 1998 were superbly ineffective. But the Janta Party wasted its massive 1977 win and Rajiv Gandhi frittered away the overwhelming sympathy vote in 1984. In comparison, significant economic reform happened only under the Narasimha Rao led coalition government in 1991; the Vajpayee led NDA government of 2000 and the Manmohan Singh led UPA I of 2004. There does seem to be a positive link between coalitions and economic reform. Possibly huge majorities induce comfort. The lack of competition douses the fire in the belly till ones time is up and it is too late.

Modi is not unused to huge mandates. After all he has led Gujarat for over ten years now. But it would be wise to pursue the idea of a “cabinet” of Chief Ministers and to engage proactively with the opposition. The last few years have seen rising inter-party acrimony making Parliament dysfunctional. To keep engaging, when not compelled to do so, is the best route to rebuild a national consensus on development priorities.

Modi is a man in a hurry, with an agenda to complete and too little time to do it in. It is consequently unlikely that he will let the baton slip. He would do well to use the UK-Tony Blair and Malaysia precedent and constitute small, vertically integrated, fully empowered, politico-technocratic teams with specific, measurable and time bound results expected from them. His secretariat is unlikely to be the laid back, free-wheeling entity it had become under Manmohan Singh, which reported to everyone but the PM. The expectation is that Modi will come to office with a pre-formulated agenda and a team to implement it doggedly.

Is the hoary city of Delhi likely to seduce him into somnolence? Again, very unlikely, given the cultural gulf tween the macho man from Mehsana and the pleasures on offer from the glitterati of Lutyens. His “quasi married” status is likely to generate many hours of speculation of who, if anyone, is likely to share 7 RCR with him.

The world will be waiting however, for any slip up on his management of the Muslim community. Whilst Modi seeks to treat all Indians the same and goes out of his way to say so, the fact is that to reverse the “selective appeasement” of the past will take time and fiscal space. Neither is available to him. This is where proxies and symbols can help to reassure minorities that he is their protector too. One important symbol will be his choice of the Home Minister, who whilst enjoying the full confidence of the PM, must be trusted by all segments of India.

Theorists will make much of the need for Modi to build or re-build institutions. This is very time consuming and effort intensive. Many of these (cabinet system; inner party democracy; the bureaucracy; federalism; the judiciary) were systematically destroyed during the long period of Indira Gandhi’s rule. Institutions do matter, particularly in a democracy, because they provide permanence in a politically unstable system. But in India we carry everything to extremes. No institution can atrophy and yet remain productive.

The central bureaucracy is one such institution. From the very beginning, it was merit oriented only at the point of entry. Even in that limited way, it did not respond to the socio-economic disabilities specific segments of India faced in getting in. This opaque, small, mostly male club can be transformed by introducing real competition at the top. This is from where the fish rots. All babu posts of Joint Secretary and above must be filled through open competition. It must be the PM (not the concerned Minister or the Department of Personnel) who must select the candidate, out of a short list of two, recommended by the UPSC. Each appointment must have a minimum tenure of three years with no job hopping allowed, even if more attractive lateral options become available.  

One new tradition, which must be reversed, is the “in your face” security apparatus. Modi was the highest security risk even before he became the PM. Now his security needs to significantly enhanced. But this challenge should be used as an opportunity to upgrade the security apparatus, rely on technology, intelligence and rapid response, rather than on a glut of gun totting men. It is only when the PM makes his security “invisible” that it will stop being the status symbol, it is today.

It will not be easy to rein in “privilege”, which is the life blood of an elitist, patrimonial State. But much of the rot we face today can be traced to this one, ubiquitous norm. Who better to try, than one who, like Bill Clinton, made it to the very top purely on merit?

Team Modi; the first 100 days

Image

Come May 16, Team Modi will be “riding” into Delhi in a triumphant explosion of fireworks, marigold and rose garlands and ladoos (sweets). After the celebrations are done; the flags and caps given away to raddi and the posters hang limp and ragged, Modi will get down to implementing his manifesto and try to outdo Kejriwal’s frenetic 49 day blitzkrieg.

Elections are to a democracy, what war is to a Nation. Our elections tend to highlight the innumerable cleavages in society, some of them exceedingly bitter, which get papered over. But once in every five years we get to “ground truth” how far we have come in integrating ourselves.  The answer for 2014 is not very far. The bitterest divide and mutual suspicion is between Hindus and Muslims followed by between Dalits and the rest. Modi will need to act expeditiously on both.

What matters most to both social segments (Muslims and Dalits, both of whom are “outsiders” to the Hindu mainstream) is security of life and property and jobs.

Security is a matter squarely in the mandate of state governments. But there are some things the center can do.

First, appoint a BJP Home Minister who has a track record of plurality and a persona which encourages reconciliation and compromise, rather than confrontation. Arun Jaitley fits the bill. Second, ramp up the activities of the Intelligence Bureau. The IB operates nationally and can gather and report intelligence for prevention of organized crime and sectarian violence. Third, use the constitutional provisions to act against a state government, which ignores early warnings from IB and fails to protect its citizens against organized crime and sectarian violence. Fourth, fast forward the UID (Aadhar card). It is the best available mechanism for seamless digitization of an individual’s identity across the country; the prevention of duplication and verifying identity irrespective of the current location of the holder.  

A caveat here. As in business, there is no substitute for credibility and no better measure of good intentions than ones actions. Amit Shah, a close confidant of Modi, must not find a place in the cabinet. Shah was invaluable for his organizational skill to topple the old paper tigers of the BJP in UP; Lalji Tandon (Lucknow) and Murli Manohar Joshi (Varanasi) and keep a close watch over the faction ridden activities of the party in UP. His job is done and he must recede into the shadows of Gujarat.

After security comes the more uphill task of providing productive jobs. Jobs are the outcome of investment and inclusive growth, both of which the BJP manifesto focuses. An important keystone of growth, which has received less than deserved attention, is making government more effective; re-energizing babus to become performance oriented and reshaping the architecture of the central government. Here is what Modi can do in the first 100 days.

First, reassure the babus in Delhi; Joint Secretary upwards, numbering around 1000, that there is no retribution coming merely because they worked closely; were appointed or promoted under a UPA government. To build trust and camaraderie, the PM must view this set of babus as his personal executive team and be inclusive though his actions. Selection; performance review and most importantly grievance redressal, including regulated but direct access to him for senior babus, must be the PMs prerogative. Nothing works as well as even the briefest face-to-face interaction between a babu and her boss (even through face time at 5.30 am!) to build mutual commitment and confidence.

Second, Modi must act quickly on his promise of treating all the Chief Ministers of state governments as an integral part of his “development” team. The bad mouthing and name calling of the election must get subsumed by a common purpose for mutual gains. The key sticking point here is the manner and the proportion of finances which get distributed as central grants and loans to states. The proportion of central finances shared with the states can increase significantly, in real terms, if the center cuts back on the burgeoning central sector schemes which are devised in and financed by Delhi, but implemented by states. Modi needs to walk the talk here. He must transfer direct decision making power, including design discretion, to the states, subject to mandated and specific inclusion by states of local governments in the implementation of such schemes.

Third, quickly restructure the central government into a more cohesive team with adequate executive support for the leader. Nothing works like evoking symbols to illustrate purpose. Under the previous PM, the Planning Commission grew to become his de facto PMO for matters economic. This will no longer be necessary with a “real” PM in position. The Planning Commission should be merged into a Ministry of Economic Affairs; an internal economic think tank of the government.

The functions of the “real” PMO should be expanded to include a Service Delivery and Development Unit reporting directly to the PM. This unit would be mandated to problem shoot in strategic areas; work with Ministers to find solutions to clogged service delivery channels and straggling central projects; monitoring progress digitally in real time and generate an independent MIS for the eyes of the PM only.

This strategy of choosing specific problems to solve in delivery chains and then going after them hammer and tongs, rather than waiting endlessly for the more tedious all-of-government reform worked well for Tony Blair in the UK (the longest serving Labour PM) and more recently for PM Najib Razak in Malaysia for his re-election. Both interventions enhanced the efficiency and effectiveness of the government and subsequent electoral gains (UK -2005 and Malaysia-2013).  

Fourth, reduce the cost whilst enhancing the effectiveness of the central government. Ministries have burgeoned over the last decade to accommodate the “drift dharma” of coalition governments. The central government must be shrunk and ministries collapsed by broad banding related sectors;

(1) Combine the ministries of Heavy Industry; Steel; Chemicals; Industry and Commerce; Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises; Food Processing; Labour and Employment into one Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Employment.

(2) Combine the ministries of Urban development; Rural Development; Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation and Drinking Water and Sanitation into a single Ministry of Development and Poverty Alleviation.

(3) Combine the ministries of Agriculture; Fertilizer; Water Resources; Forests and Wildlife and Earth Sciences into a single Ministry of Earth Resources.

(4) Combine the ministries of Petroleum and Natural Gas; Coal; Power and Renewable Energy into a single Ministry of Energy.

(5) Combine Road Transport; Shipping; Civil Aviation and Railways into a single Ministry of Transport.

Broad banding induces better networking and facilitates an integrated approach to problem definition and problem solving.

A more significant political advantage of broad banding is that it provides around ten significantly empowered Ministries (including Home, Finance, External Affairs, Human Resources and Health) to accommodate the senior BJP ranks who are currently smarting at their marginalization by the relatively younger Team Modi. Broad banding also allows junior BJP members to be inducted as state ministers for maturing into a line of succession.

The first instinct of a new government is to rush about fulfilling the “promises” made by them in the heat of the electoral battle. This is the glamorous thing to do, which gets instant acclaim both from the media and the citizens. But someone must do the back room drudge of repairing the plumbing; tightening the screws and fixing the nuts and bolts. There is little point in the Captain inviting the world to a deck party, if the waiters are sullen; the canapés indifferent; the boat leaks and the toilets stink. Time to pull the jhadoo out of the closet and use it vigorously.   

Tag Cloud

%d bloggers like this: