governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation

Posts tagged ‘AAP’

Delhi voters slap AAP on the face

modi kejriwal

The Lion of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, has been bearded in his den. The BJP’s massive victory in all three municipalities in Delhi — North, South and East — has left everyone flummoxed. However, it wasn’t all one way. The AAP held onto their seats as per the outcomes of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in the South MCD. But it lost seat share in both the North and East MCD to the Congress. In both areas, it seems there was a “ghar-wapsi” (homecoming) of traditional Congress supporters, who had fallen prey to the AAP’s promise of transformation in the 2015 Assembly election.

Delhi State merely a jagir of the Union Government

anil baijal

Anil Baijal, Lieutenant Governor – the invisible satrap of Delhi

The forceful return of the BJP can only be attributed to the TINA (there is no alternative) factor. The confrontational politics of the AAP, which burnt its boats and utterly failed to establish a harmonious working relationship with the Centre, proved costly. Delhi is a Union territory, but with a twist — like Puducherry. Both have a Legislative Assembly that elects a chief minister. But it’s biggest asset — land — is directly controlled by the Union government, as is the police force and the civil service. The lieutenant-governor is the de facto ruler of Delhi state, and he plays to the tune of the Centre, which appoints him. Not all the hugs and shared parathas between the former L-G Najeeb Jung and Arvind Kejriwal could bridge this basic gap in political alignment. The new L-G, Anil Baijal, also follows the same route, an inevitable outcome of the fractured institutional arrangements in Delhi. Only if the same party rules the Centre, state and municipalities can this alignment be matched. This is not possible till 2020, when the next Delhi Assembly elections will be held.

Kejriwal can save AAP in Delhi by stepping down as CM

manish sisodia

Can things change even before 2020, if Arvind Kejriwal resigns, admitting he has lost the mandate to rule? This might be a canny move, and put him on the high moral ground. Ajay Maken, the face of the Congress in Delhi, has already resigned, even though his party made some gains in contrast to the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 Assembly results. The AAP has ambitions in Gujarat. The outcome of the recent Punjab polls should have taught Mr Kejriwal a lesson — that being an itinerant leader is only possible if one’s family is part of the political elite and has spent almost a lifetime in politics. A good showing in Gujarat would be a good base for enlarging the AAP footprint into the metros in Karnataka and Maharashtra. Left to himself, Manish Sisodia is a diligent leader with balance and the tenacity to show results, on the ground, in Delhi. More roads and flyovers built at less than the budgeted cost; more mohalla clinics and better services in the slums of Delhi is a painstaking job for an executive, not a charismatic dreamer.

Modi is the king of referenda politics

The Delhi municipal elections reinforce that charisma and shock and awe tactics work wonders. Like everywhere else, since 2014, these elections were fought in the name of Narendra Modi versus Arvind Kejriwal. In a costly tactical error, the AAP sought this face-off as a referendum. Clearly, Arvind Kejriwal has much distance to travel before he can be measured in the same metric as Prime Minister Modi.

Amit Shah is a one-man school for electoral management

The Modi-Amit Shah duo’s trademark electoral tactics of “placing” the right man to lead the Delhi BJP has paid off yet again. Manoj Tiwari, a Bihari actor, has a natural entry point into the significant voter pockets of recently-domiciled Puravanchalis — slang for immigrants from UP and Bihar. An outsider to the more traditional set of Delhi BJP powerbrokers, Mr Tiwari was also the least likely to invite backstabbing, unlike the hapless BJP late-entrant candidate Kiran Bedi, who lost the 2015 Delhi state elections. In any case, Mr Shah’s style of watertight oversight, now honed over half a dozen polls, precludes any dissent within the BJP now.

“dhili” Congress unravelled in Delhi

Compare this targeted “placement strategy” of the BJP with the Congress, which failed to rally its troops behind Delhi leader Ajay Maken. Arvinder Lovely, a Sikh leader, deserted the party for better pickings with the BJP. Manoj Tiwari’s counterpart in the Congress is Sheila Dikshit and her son Sandeep Dikshit. They have familial links to the Purabaia community via the late Uma Shanker Dikshit, Ms Dikshit’s father-in-law, who was a venerated UP politician of the independence movement era. Ms  Dikshit, Delhi’s chief minister for 15 years, from 1998 to 2013, was sidelined, possibly due to infighting between her and Mr Maken.

AAP – resource thin and exhausted post Punjab disappointment

AAP workers

If disjointed leadership cost the Congress dearly, the AAP suffered from electoral exhaustion; a dwindling bench strength and failing credibility. Arvind Kejriwal held out the ultimate bait — a promise to abolish property tax — to win over the middle class. This was the final nail in the coffin of responsible politics. Property tax is the primary source of revenue for all municipalities. Its abolition would spell financial ruin and even worse services than at present. In comparison, the BJP brings to the table the coffers of the Union government. The NDMC area, which is managed directly by the Central government, is a lush, green oasis for the gilded elite — the Lutyens people — in sharp contrast to the dusty, filthy Delhi, the rest of the national capital’s residents live in. The prospect of resembling the NDMC  area was a mouth-watering possibility that few voters would pass up.

Can Modi reproduce the well being of the NDMC area in the rest of Delhi by 2019?

NDMC2

Delhi has voted for the Modi magic to rub-off on them. The denizens of other metros may contest this, but Delhi best illustrates the diligent, aspirational and yet conflicted India — riven by caste, religious, regional and class cleavages. It is a ready crucible for implementing the PM’s vision of a prosperous, equal opportunity-oriented, highly skilled, healthy and sustainable India. Mr Modi is unlikely to disappoint.

Adapted fro the authors article in The Asian Age April 27, 2017 http://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/270417/delhi-gives-kejriwal-a-slap-in-the-face.html

 

A new “living wage” f0r Delhi

Populism, buttressed by dodgy economics, has become the fashion statement in politics. Last year, the Union government approved handsome “real” increases in government salary. There was little justification for doing so since the government salaries were already fully indexed to inflation and the largesse couldn’t have been justified as a reward for higher productivity.

The default justification was that more money in the hands of government employees would kick start a virtuous circle. Higher demand for goods and services would lead to expanded supply, more jobs and just possibly, more income for the rest of us.

AAP disrupts the cozy status quo in Delhi

This week, the Aam Aadmi Party government in Delhi, used similar tactics to grab eyeballs on Independence Day. Evoking the high moral stance of re-distribution of wealth and the economic principle of boosting demand as justification, the government declared massive increase in the minimum wage. In effect, it imposed a “living wage”, for workers in Delhi.

The impossible dream of “mandating” the end of poverty

Child searches for valuables in a garbage dump in New Delhi

The concept of a “living wage” — pegged significantly higher than the minimum wage — with an eye to decrease poverty has been used in over 100 urban jurisdictions in the United States since the late 1990s. It has also been used to set the national poverty level in India. But it is pegged at very low levels.

In Delhi, chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has proposed that the minimum wages of unskilled labour will be increased from Rs 9,500 to Rs 14,000, semi-skilled Rs 10,600 to Rs 15,500 and for skilled Rs 11,600 to Rs 17,000.

The hike seems unreasonable given that the minimum wage in Delhi is already 35 per cent higher than in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh and 72 per cent higher than in adjoining Haryana.

Delhi is rich but…

It is true that Delhi is relatively rich. Its per capita income of around Rs 18,300 per month is the highest among the states of India and the top 10 metros. Consequently, there is a case for setting the “living wage” in Delhi reasonably higher than in the neighbouring states, purely on the grounds of equity.

The real issue is whether a 47 per cent increase is warranted and how comprehensively should the “living wage” be applied? If it is applied just to the establishments governed by the Factories Act, then it is little more than populism. There are only around 8,000 such factories in land-hungry Delhi and employment in them is static.

If the intention is to enlarge the coverage of the “living/minimum wage” to all registered shops and establishments, which employ around 20 per cent (one million) of Delhi’s five million workers, then the economic consequences can be more substantial.

Mandated wages hurt business and make it shift out 

closed 2

Photo credit: blogs.ft.com

The negative impact will be felt in price-sensitive, low value-addition segments like clothing, food and household goods, where higher wages will hurt business profits. More importantly, will a similar “living wage” follow for the one million workers in the informal sector — household help in rich and middle class homes and in unlicensed small establishments? If so Delhi’s privileged elite and wannabes may have to look for a lifestyle change – let the ayah go and manage their own babies; cook for themselves or use an app to order in; make their own beds; wash and iron their own laundry and learn to use a vacuum cleaner. And what of the ubiquitous car drivers and guards who lounge around the front gate of Delhi homes? Will the well-off opt for Ola and Uber instead?

Poor enforcement can make mandated wage a sham

Mandated high minimum wages, far above the market rate, encounter three problems. First, enforcing payment of the mandated wages depends crucially on clean, clever and consistent regulation. In its absence, it encourages the petty but crippling, corruption of “inspector raj”. Enlarging the scope of inspector raj in Delhi, even as it is being diluted in Rajasthan and Telangana sends the wrong message to investment for increasing jobs and private sector growth in Delhi.

High wages result in loss of unskilled jobs

Second, studies from the US show that the benefits are not uniform across the entire spectrum of workers. On average, unskilled workers lose the most from a high minimum wage because employment declines even as a smaller number of workers, who remain employed, benefit from high wages. Mandated wages rarely benefit skilled workers. Governments tend to be conservative in fixing the differential for skills. Delhi provides only a premium of 21 per cent, or `80 per day between unskilled and skilled work. The market premium is already between 75 to 100 per cent. A mason gets twice the amount as his unskilled worker — often a woman, who does the manual work.

In-migration increases fiscal pressure to provide public services

migrants 2

High, mandated wages attract in-migrants to cities. photo credit: http://www.rediff.com

Third, pegging a price for labour far above the market rate increases the fiscal burden. This happens directly when government salaries are needlessly enhanced. But it also hits the government budget indirectly, when applied to the private sector. Higher the mandated wage for unskilled work the more attractive it becomes for migrants. With open borders, no control on migration and the Delhi government committed, rightly so, to provide a basic quality of life for all — free water, free medical care, free education, cheap electricity, improved toilets and paved roads — the resulting fiscal impact can be crippling.

Immigrants reduce the market price of unskilled labour

One way of ensuring that market wage rates remain aligned with mandated wages and are not beggared by competition from in-migration, is to licence city workers, as in China. But it is difficult to do this effectively in a governance environment of pervasive corruption. Licensing is a one way street to inefficiency and corruption. If government land cannot be protected from encroachment by the mafia, there is little hope of implementing an equitable worker licensing regime. Railway stations are a good example. Try getting a licensed coolie to carry your bags at the stipulated rates and you are more likely to miss your train.

Test the viability first in government contracts

The high salary of unskilled government workers already provides a wage floor. But the incremental numbers employed are limited. The trend, since 1990s when the government adopted the practices of “new pubic management”, has been to outsource non-core services i.e. cleaning, canteen, security and office support. Worker productivity clearly increases under private management. But there is insufficient evidence that the wages paid to them reflect this higher productivity. The apprehension is that the workers will suffer from price competition to get government contracts.

This is a perverse and unintended outcome. Tightly regulating the private contracts that are funded by the government can ensure that the mandated wages are passed through to workers. And contractors do not corner the wage increase. This is how the financial viability of the enhanced wage rates should be tested before imposing them.

But there is little point in cultivating a small, handsomely paid labour “aristocracy”, as the CPI(M) did, whilst throttling investment and employment.

CPIM

Adapted from the author’s article in Asian Age August 19, 2016 http://www.asianage.com/columnists/how-viable-are-hiked-wage-rates-333

Kejriwal – God’s own messenger

Kejriwal Ramlila

(photo credit: indiatoday.com)

Speaking today in Ramlila Grounds, the “maidan” of the people’s movement which birthed the Aam Admi Party, just over a year ago, Kejriwal, in his acceptance speech as Chief Minister of Delhi state government, confided that it was God who had ordained the Tsunami like landslide win of the AAP (96% of the available seats).

None of the 100,000 supporters gathered there doubted for a minute that this was indeed so. For them Kejriwal is indeed a God sent savior from the ugly corruption of state agencies; the morbid face of the traditional parties in Delhi and the lop sided “development” which leaves 60% of Delhi’s citizens living in muck and filth without water or sewage systems, though electricity supply has improved significantly, post privatization by the previous Congress government of Shiela Dikshit (http://www.cuts-international.org/ review of customer satisfaction 2015).

Kejriwal still concludes his speeches with a rousing “Inquilab zindabad” (long live the revolution) preceded by Bharat Mata Ki Jai (Praise be to Mother India) and followed by Vande Matram (the title of India’s National Song) but it is clear political experience has mellowed him.

Today’s signs of maturity included a firm rejection of the recently voiced ambitions of several AAP members to ignite AAP “fires” all over the country and spread the party – a mistake they committed last year; a commitment that Kejriwal will personally serve the people of Delhi for the full five years – he unsuccessfully contested the Varanasi polls against PM Modi; a reality check on the speed at which citizens should expect change; reaching out to non-supporters with the assurance that he would be everyone’s CM not just the AAPs and emphasizing agendas which are within his constitutional mandate.

But most of all what impresses is the choice of candidate which carefully reflects caste, regional and religious representation with poorly performing Ministers, fashionistas and charlatans from his previous government, excluded.

AAP is clearly a new age substitute for the erstwhile Congress minus its dynasty, corruption, clunkiness and with a dash of the Communist zeal for equity.

Today, for the first time in four decades, the Gandhi cap- a boat shaped headgear of white coarse cotton, was once again the headgear of choice in Ramlila Grounds. A sea of 100,000 white Gandhi caps, emblazoned with the iconic jhadoo (broom) symbol of the AAP bobbed and milled about, as this simple instrument of defiance and political empowerment, dating back to India’s independence struggle, was proudly donned by all present.

How long can the romance and dedication of a few drive a government to deliver? This is what remains in doubt. The cabinet line-up is unremarkable and four of the six Ministers, faceless new-comers to both politics and administration. Kejriwal pledged that he and his team would work 24X7 for the people without rest. But this is meaningless hyperbole. Every worker knows that efficient governments are run not by tireless people but by systems and institutions, both of which remain in short supply.

Kejriwal mentioned that the government would seek the advice of Bhen (Sister) Kiran Bedi (the BJPs nominated candidate for CM who was humiliatingly defeated by the AAP) and Ajay Makken of the Congress. One hopes he will also seek more professional help to flesh out his 70 point manifesto.

Service delivery is of course priority number one. Water, sewage and transport are directly within the Delhi government’s ambit and should be his focus if he wants to show performance. In electricity the private utilities have consistently improved their performance. Embedding consumer friendly practices in regulation and a consumer representative in the Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission can deal effectively with the lack of trust between the utility; the regulator and the government.

The more generic reforms can follow. Policing, housing and land management is not in the mandate of the Delhi government so these cannot be his government’s priorities. At best he can and should be a spokesperson for the citizens and press the Union government to perform on these issues.

Setting specific targets for water supply, sewage disposal and treatment and travel time in Delhi should be right up the street of the IIT alumni who crowd the AAP. Time to descend from the realm of high rhetoric and morality into the mucky business of unclogging the pipes of Delhi’s governance.

Show us that you can deliver clean water at a reasonable price to all; that every dwelling and mohalla in Delhi gets a sewage collection system; that Delhi’s sewage is treated before it is discharged into the Jumna river and that public transport is available within a ten minute walk of every dwelling in Delhi at a frequency of not more than 15 minutes during peak hours, 30 minutes during off-peak hours and 60 minutes all through the night.

If you can do this, sir, in 2020 you are sure to get 99% of the seats, possibly with the BJP choosing not to contest.

BJP dials 100, Bedi to the rescue

(Reposted from the Asian Age January 21- http://www.asianage.com/columnists/bjp-dials-100-bedi-rescue-021)

bedi_kejriwal

(photocredit: sahilonline.org)

The DNA of Kiran Bedi and the Bharatiya Janata Party seem twinned at birth. Bolly-wood films thrive on the “masala” (formula) of twins separated at birth but reunited after an epic struggle with a happily tear-jerking end. The BJP and Ms Bedi finding each other after so long is real life imitating art.

For both, “discipline” comes with a capital D. They share a strong belief in the ability of large, efficient organisations to provide direction and in the efficacy of formal rules and regulations to manage society.

“Crane” Bedi could as well have been known as “danda” Bedi. Armed only with a wooden baton, she single-handedly charged at a bunch of unruly, sword-wielding Akali protesters in Delhi. The BJP is similarly admired for strong leadership and decisive action.

Kiran Didi mesmerises kids just as Mr Modi does. In both these leaders kids see a strong, stern but clear-headed “parent” with a consistent idea of what to do next and the ability to prescribe, what seems to be, a winning game plan. They have a common bias for acronyms (Kiran Didi’s 6Ps — police, prisons, prosecution, people, parents and press — compete with Mr Modi’s 3Ds — democracy, demography and demand) and a shared communication style of keeping the message simple: Hard work, discipline, steadfast goals and an alert mind ready to grab any opportunity being the mantra for advancement.

Business people, Punjabi refugees, professionals, the “sarkari” middle class and all those with a stake in preserving the status quo form the core urban constituency of the BJP in Delhi. They all look on Kiran Didi with approval. She is a Punjabi herself; a self-made professional who strove to excel at whatever she did and ensured that she got recognised for her achievements. Professional aggression, ambition and, above everything else, success, is what this core constituency adores. These attributes Ms Bedi has in plenty.

Given more time, Ms Bedi could have consolidated the woman vote behind her. She is today a mélange of what many young girls dream to be a mother, a successful government officer, an outspoken social activist, a TV personality, a politician and, implicitly, very much part of the Delhi elite.

But time is scarce with barely three weeks to go for the polls on February 7, 2015. Indeed, the fact that time was running out is what induced the unorthodox induction of a “rank outsider” into the BJP, ostensibly to lead the campaign and, possibly, eventually become the chief minister. Galling as it must be for Mr Modi that his name was not enough to pull in votes in Delhi, the fact is that the BJP must look at systematic dispersal of power and responsibility if they are to win in Bihar and later in Uttar Pradesh.

This, in fact, is the way it has been thus far. BJP chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh or Maharashtra do not view themselves as subordinate to the Prime Minister, at least not yet and certainly not in the manner the hapless, erstwhile Congress chief ministers were with regard to Sonia Gandhi.

The induction of Kiran Didi should also be read as a sign that Mr Modi is not averse to modernising the BJP and aggressively broad-basing its membership beyond the rather obscure agenda of the Sangh. Mr Modi seems to be working towards reinventing the BJP as a party of the right, committed to small government functioning on the P4S principle of private sector-led growth, security, sustainability, social protection and passive secularism.

Both the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party have their core support base intact in Delhi. It is the direction of swing in the erstwhile Congress supporters — Poorvanchali migrants, scheduled caste, scheduled tribes and the Muslims which will determine the vote change this time around.

Ms Bedi’s induction into the BJP is a game changer because, first, she has the star appeal and freshness to attract the middle class supporters of the AAP who were disappointed with Arvind Kejriwal’s reluctance to rule in 2013 and in whose eyes Mr Kejriwal became an opportunistic quitter. Many were coming around to the idea of giving him a second chance rather than support a “traditional party” like the BJP. Now they see in Ms Bedi an alternative, the manifestation of a “new” BJP just as AAP was in 2013.

Second, Ms Bedi shall attract the wavering, non-Muslim Congress supporters who are rudderless today with the demise of the Delhi Congress. For aspirational women and the educated professional, Ms Bedi’s BJP seems to be the true inheritor of the Congress’ erstwhile mantle of stability and development which kept it in power for 15 long years (1998-2013).

Third, the BJP’s core base is unlikely to reject the “outsider” Ms Bedi who exudes success and brims with optimism. Too much is made of the disaffection of the old-time Delhi BJP leaders. These are long-term political players, honed in the Sangh’s discipline to never break ranks. In any case, they can easily be assured that Ms Bedi is only “transiting” through Delhi to enter the national government, where she would get more traction. Police, land and housing in Delhi are all dealt with by the Union government. In fact, the Delhi government is more like an empowered metropolitan authority rather that an Indian state.

With the Congress in decline, Delhi elections are a face-off between the BJP and the AAP. The AAP 2013 phenomenon was a unique convergence of the middle class and Delhi’s “underbelly” votes. But even this coalition was not sufficient to get AAP a clear majority. This time around the AAP will be boosted by significant Muslim support which earlier kept the Congress in power. But even within the AAP’s core support base they will have to contend with Ms Bedi attracting women voters.

Ms Bedi is a powerful role model and a convincing administrator to assure the empowerment of women and their protection, not least because of her linkages with the police.

If Kiran Didi can project herself as the “face” of the “new BJP” — forward-looking, effective, gender sensitive, socially progressive, honest and committed to equitable development — she may well nudge the BJP towards forming the government in Delhi.

The Bedi baan (arrow) unleashed by Mr Modi is sure to give sleepless nights to “King Kejriwal” as he trawls the slums of Delhi to keep his flock intact.

Why the BJP will lose- Delhi State elections 2015

sadhu

(photo credit: freepik.com)

There are three reasons why the AAP shall succeed in holding off a BJP government in Delhi.

BICKERING IN THE DELHI BJP

First, the debilitated state of the Delhi BJP unit for which the malfunctioning mike at PM Modi’s election rally on January 10, 2014 was an apt metaphor. PM Modi or his alter ego Amit Shah have not had the mind space to redress what ails it: intra-fighting, lackluster leadership and just sheer inefficiency. These short-comings do not go unnoticed by the demanding and discerning BJP supporters in Delhi. They showed how lukewarm they were during PM Modi’s recent 10th January election rally in sharp contrast to the upbeat mood, way back in March 2014, when Modi first rode into Delhi as the BJPs PM candidate.

In contrast Kejriwal and his team are a chastened lot- apologetic about their earlier blunders; better honed for politics; eager to please and reach out to Delhi voters with a campaign strategy of individualized and personal interaction and long term relationship building which appeals instantly. With the Congress in retreat and tacitly backing AAP-their ideological ally- an AAP surge is certain.

SAFFRON SELF GOAL

Second, the aggressive Hindutva campaign and the indiscipline of the saffron clad BJP ranks, who frankly sound like they belong in the 18th century, with their calls for increasing the production of Hindu babies; a return to the “traditional” subservient role of women in Hindu families and the obsession with religion. India is a religious country and most Indians believe in God and practice a faith. But we do not want to impose our faith on others. Nor do we want others to impose theirs on us. Mutual respect with complete freedom of choice for believers is the Indian social mantra of long standing. All faiths proselytize. But it does not have to be done in a grandstanding and confrontationist manner designed to make headline news. True and efficient Missionaries do not try and get brownie points by advertising what they do.

Departing from the development script immediately risks losing the minority- read Muslim 12% and Christian 1%- vote entirely and alienating intellectuals, secularists and educated, aspirational women and a large segment of the upwardly mobile youth. This is the “self-goal” that the saffron clad leaders of the BJP have scored.

Some also read into this irrational indiscipline of the saffron clad crowd, the invisible hand of the wise men in Nagpur- the RSS.  PM Modi is very much his own man and not the typical RSS acolyte who will allow fuzzy theology to trump real achievements or threaten medium-term National objectives. His agenda is clearly development and this is what got him votes in the 2014 national agenda. He has gone from strength to strength and in the space of a mere one year, has become the sole voice of the BJP/RSS. Nagpur could not have liked that.

More importantly, those, over whose heads PM Modi elevated himself, have an axe to grind and an incentive to undermine him. Ensuring the BJP loses the Delhi poll aligns with this perverse objective.

MISALIGNED AGENDA

Third, the BJP has not reduced its image handicap of being perceived as the party of the rich. The erstwhile refuge of the poor-the Congress- has slipped into oblivion and that mantle has squarely been grabbed by Kejriwal. But it is not just a matter of perception.

The poor-the foot path vendor, small shop keepers, “auto” drivers, retired folk and Dalits (25% population) remember with nostalgia, the short reign of Kejriwal when he cracked down on the widespread petty corruption at the public interface level. In contrast the over 200 days of indirect governance by the BJP Union Government has seen an upsurge in petty corruption and disregard for the poor and the powerless in the Police, the Public Service Departments and the Municipal Corporation.

WHY SHOULD BJP CARE?

How big a blow will it be for the BJP to lose Delhi? Far from bemoaning this outcome the BJP should want to lose this election. There are three reasons for this contrarian view.

First, AAP is likely, at the very least, to be the main and significant opposition. The BJP will be hard put to keep up with the forensic oversight the AAP would unleash on the functioning of a BJP government in Delhi unless the Delhi unit is completely revamped. There is little chance of this happening since too much political capital needs to be invested for this with meagre political returns. This helplessness is best demonstrated by the inability of the BJP to reform the three Municipal Corporations it controls in Delhi. Hence the BJP has very little upside to lose in Delhi.

Second, an AAP government is likely to have the very same limitations it had when it last came to power; an uncooperative National Government controlling both the Police and Urban Development. Delhi is thirsting for more water but with a BJP government in Haryana (the source of additional supply) and a BJP National Government, an AAP government in Delhi will get no help in getting additional supplies. This indicates an AAP government is likely to underperform versus people’s expectations. So best to give them a long rope with which to hang themselves conclusively.

Third, PM Modi’s “A” team (Arun Jaitley-FM and Rajnath Singh-Home Minister) is getting awfully stretched. Big political battles are around the corner; Bihar end 2015 and UP a year later. There is also the job of getting on with routine governance; the nuts and bolts of managing the pipes that deliver public interest outcomes like investment; growth and jobs. Managing Delhi is a distraction the BJP could do without.

Of course the BJP does not have it in its DNA to take the low profile, strategic, sustainable path. Their forte is the “shock and awe” tactic. The focus is very much on glossy, big ticket items: grand new schemes and projects; a “strong Rupee; soaring stock markets; clever IT apps; outstanding oratory and a one-headline-a-day frenetic outreach schedule.

Time for the BJP to do a huddle and think its Delhi election strategy through. Having recently won the war (National Elections), losing a skirmish (Delhi) is ok if it results in winning the battle (Bihar & UP) to follow.

“Tweak” the process transparently to deliver PM Modi’s “Big Things to Small People”

Obama Modi

(photo credit: article.wn.com)

Charismatic leaders can mould crowds like putty. Bill Clinton’s March, 2000 “US and India are natural allies” address to the Indian Parliament; Barrack Obama’s University of Cairo “New Beginnings” address to the Muslim world, June, 2009 unleashed a Tsunami of optimism and “feel good”. In much the same way, PM Modi-the man with an agenda of Big things for Small people- in his recent Madison Square address, won over the hearts and minds of a “massive” (by US standards) crowd of 18,000 Indian-Americans in New York and an even larger audience back home in India.

For many Indian expatriates, including us in India, it is a relief to have a Prime Minister who radiates strength, speaks extempore and from his heart. It also helps that he is a consummate performer, who draws energy from the crowd and returns it to them magnified many-fold.

Those looking for suave wit and a sophisticated exposition of geo-political gyan were sorely disappointed. Modi was deliberately folksy and simplistic. He capitalized on his strengths magnificently, just as Indira Gandhi, the last Indian PM with an international stature, used to do more than three decades ago.

Of course, it helps if one can live on water endlessly and still have the physical ability and mind space to go through a deliberately, whirl-wind program. By doing so Modi has become a live bill-board for the low carbon footprint potential of solar energy. His eschewing food altogether, through the trip, was akin to the Mahatma wandering through the London chill in his sparse loin cloth, protected only by the churning energy generator in his mind.

Till now the West has been wowed by India’s IT skills, thanks to our Silicon Valley diaspora. Next, we are likely to be branded as Yoga maestros all and expected to perform never-before feats of physical endurance.

But it was not all plain sailing.

Three areas where plain speaking-PM Modi’s forte, would have helped, are listed below.

First, what exactly is our stand on joining the fight against Islamic Terror and the linked approach to Afghanistan? The message coming through till now is fuzzy. It seems India is likely to carry on in much the same muddled way we have done till now; remaining visible in Afghanistan, but primarily as well wishers, bringing development to the people of Afghanistan. This is clearly dissatisfactory and unrealistic in the context of the impeding US withdrawal and the likely security turmoil courtesy the unresolved political contestation between the Ashraf Ghani and Abudullah Abdullah groups. National governments are prone to fail. Similar recent experiments in Nepal, Zimbabwe and South Sudan illustrate the illusive nature of such options for “externally enforced” stability in the face of unresolved local contestation.

Our interest lies in clearly establishing that we view the Taliban, the Pakistan Army and Militant Kashmiri jihadi groups as part of the same set of Islamic Terrorists, which are a direct and existential threat to us and our secular, plural democratic system. We must be willing and able to take the most effective action in our near abroad to crush Islamic Terror. But where Islamic Terror is not a direct threat to us (as for example the ISIL) whilst any UN endorsed initiative will have our support, we do not have the resources to join a plurilateral initiative against global terror. This is strictly for the big boys; the US, its NATO allies and China.

PM Modi has been at pains to explain that on this trip that whilst he has been trying for more than the last two decades to get the US to recognize the global consequences of Islamic terror, they took cognizance only after 9/11, when it hurt them directly. The fact is we must be similarly discriminating in unbundling Islamic Terror into immediate and distant threats and not be distracted by the enormity of global threats and ignore focusing on managing immediate threats, closer home.

Plain speaking about our threat perceptions, our limitations and our determination not to be cowed down by terror would have helped.

Second, the message on trade and investment needs to be distilled better. The economic opportunities in India are well known. The demographics; the steady economic growth and resultant demand and our democratic architecture.

Unfortunately most foreign investors live in the present. No international manager has a business perspective beyond a decade-even if they draw up beautiful thirty year perspectives. What big business looks for is leadership level facilitation to get their specific project up and running quickest with commercial and political risk minimized.

Tardy environmental clearances; tax opacity; poor infrastructure and most recently, the extended ambit of judicial review of contracts are big dampeners. Many of these constraints are institutional and require structural change, which is long term. What we need are near tern solutions, of the fire-fighting kind, to establish the enabling business environment. Selective but transparent tweaking of dilatory process is an obvious option but there are challenges even here.

At the leadership level, “successful tweaking of process” requires political credibility that the selective attention is in national interest and not another manifestation of crony capitalism. Consensus building between the executive and the judiciary of the acceptable envelop of “process tweaking”, in national interest, is key for retaining the credibility of the executive and the independence of the judiciary, whilst simultaneously ensuring that the judiciary does not get drawn into settling political scores.

PM Modi is best placed to manage the optics on this score. At the operational level, he will need the support of a highly skilled and empowered team of state government officials working with counterparts from the Union Government, to pilot the tweaking process towards accelerated launch of projects.

What should constitute the government’s decision matrix for determining the “hurdle rate” for projects to be eligible for tweaking the “way we do business”? In such circumstances it always helps to have narrow objectives. “Employment and poverty reduction”, both of which are urgent near term investment related goals, present themselves as excellent “filters” for evaluating and identifying proposals which merit the highest level of facilitation.

50 projects; 5 million jobs; US$15 billion investment can be the rolling target with automatic replenishment by new proposals as projects get launched. Unfortunately, we missed the opportunity to generate the frisson of excitement which the project based approach generates.

Third, plain speaking on our environmental and energy policy would have helped. It is clearly in India’s interest to clean its water bodies and rivers; reduce air pollution and reverse the denudation of forests and degradation of land. Degradation of these natural assets has immediate economic and social outcomes usually with adverse poverty consequences. It is the poor who are impacted negatively when water bodies and rivers become polluted because they use them directly for personal needs and business. The poor similarly suffer the most from atmospheric pollution because they are incapable of insulating themselves and their children, from such ambient pollution. Unregulated deforestation robs the poor of their eco-system and their livelihoods. Combating land degradation, like increased salinity often caused by unsustainable use of ground water and poorly managed large irrigation schemes, is a costly undertaking, which is often beyond the financial ability of the poor.

On energy our big concern is energy security. The use of coal is likely to remain a staple component of our energy profile. Similarly, more aggressive utilization of the hydro potential in India and in South Asia is an efficient option. Embedding passive energy efficiency building design is another significant option. Urbansiation levels are relatively low but there is a big stimulus in the offing under the PMs target of a house for all by 2022.

More generically, India is committed to technology choices which are congruent with our two, often conflicting, goals of reversing the degradation of natural resources whilst ensuring energy security. An increasing share of wind and solar energy is one such technology choice. Increasing the share of public transportation by railways relative to roads is another which the government is pursuing. But capping India’s carbon footprint at an unrealistic level is similar to capping food subsidy at historical prices which India has already rejected.

The mantra for plain speaking on the Indian strategy for managing terrorism; enlarging trade and safeguarding the environment is to rely on the simple rule of first reserving the fiscal and the physical space for the developing world to “catch up”, before providing breathing room for the developed world, who have abetted and often perpetrated all three global problems, by agreeing to hold them harmless.

Who needs a State Government in Delhi?

flying geese

(photocredit: lakechalice.blogspot.com)

97.5% of Delhi residents live in urban areas, many in slums. All 17 million of them live within an area of 1500 square kilometers. Travelling from end to end, despite the horrendous traffic, takes just two hours on average. There are five Municipalities (including the Delhi Cantonment Board) to look after their comforts. In addition, the Union Government itself directly manages Policing, Jails, Urban Development, Water Supply and the Metro Rail-which is fast becoming the life-line of the city. More than 75% of the available beds are in health facilities owned and managed either by the Municipalities, Union Government or non-state and private care-givers. It is not clear what value the State Government adds.

We do know however that the Delhi Government spent around 2.5% of its revenue expenditure or US$ 68 million (Rs. 1500 per household) in 2013-14, just on feeding its top heavy administrative architecture– the Lt. Governor, Legislature, Council of Ministers, Secretariat administration, District Administration and financing of elections, none of which can be directly traced to tangible outcomes which benefit citizens.  This does not include its expenditure on useful things like jails, police, the judiciary, social sector programs, infrastructure, economic empowerment and some less useful things like spending 4.6% of its revenue budget (US$ 179 million) as subsidy on the supply of electricity to its pampered residents, who buy power at between 4 to 10 cents per kWh.

Delhi became a State Government in 1992. In the two decades since, the government has precious little to show for its efforts beyond a spanking new Secretariat building, stadia, flyovers and roads courtesy the Asian games earlier and more recently, the scam ridden Commonwealth Games. The State Government sits awkwardly between the Union Government, which quite naturally is loath to give up hands-on control and the Municipalities, which remain marginalized. More fundamentally, loading Delhi citizens with three levels of government is just more “babugiri” (bureaucratize) than an average citizen can handle. It is also an extremely wasteful way to govern a city.

Prime Minister Modi’s pet theme is “co-operative federalism”. But federalism must not stop at the level of governments alone. True federalism is the empowerment of local, grass roots, direct democracy where citizens play an active part in governance, especially in a relatively homogenous and rich city-per capita income in Delhi is the highest in India.

Currently the pipe, through which political power and benefits flow from the top to the citizen at the bottom is too leaky. Union Ministers and their babus; MPs, MLAs, Delhi Government Ministers and their babus and Municipal Corporators and their babus all tap into it, leaving very little to trickle down.

PM Modi would do well to articulate the “co-operative federalism” vision as a sharing of prosperity. As a part of this sharing, he should initiate a dialogue with state governments to let loose the Big Five Metros of Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Bangalore comprising 6% of India’s population from the “drag” of the underlying state level administration. They must be set free to chart their course independently under the Mayoral system like London or New York.

Urbanisation in India could conform to an adaptation of the “flying geese” model of industrialization in East Asia propounded in the 1960s by a Japanese scholar-Kaname Akamatsu. As a city matures into a metro, it must graduate out of direct state government management and support, which should divert its energies to less developed cities and areas. The logic of cities, particularly megapolises, is that their size and scale makes them supremely viable; generates “agglomeration economies” which is loosely similar to the concept of “network efficiencies”; creates well-paying jobs; provides better facilities for citizens and encourages a plural, meritocratic and modern society.

McKinsey estimates that the Big Five Metros in India together contribute at least 35% of the national GDP. Their share in high value jobs would be even higher. More importantly, the World Bank assesses that better management, infrastructure and facilities in Metros has a significant multiplier/spill-over effect, catalyzing rapid growth in a 300 km radius around each city. Recent data indicates that population growth in the Metros is slower than in the adjacent intermediate cities. Migrants vote with their feet in search for jobs. Whilst cities have significant agglomeration benefits these tend to peter out by the time they become Metros. Rent and wages increase responding to scarcity of land and labour. Land intensive and sunset industries tend to get pushed out. More importantly the returns to realty development lie in turning hitherto peri-urban areas into cities. This is another reason why the “ripple effect” of freeing Metros could be politically attractive for the political elite in state governments.

This means that whilst State Governments would lose direct management control over and revenue from the Metros, they would gain from the additional revenues generated from economic growth and jobs beyond the Metros. Managing large cities is best done by stakeholders who have a direct and permanent interest in the city. These are usually commercial interests who have a locational advantage in being there and home owners. Municipal management allows both groups to be dominant in decision making, via their tax contributions, in a more direct way than is possible under fuzzy state government control.

The fiscal devolution formula determined every five years by the Finance Commission is weighted in favour of poorer states. By hiving-off rich cities from their budgets and their higher levels of development from their score cards, state governments could lower there development ratings and hence benefit through a higher per capita devolution of central finances. The Finance Commission is also veering towards incentivizing states which help themselves by raising incremental revenues and improving performance. This means that states which lower their base level development benchmarks strategically by hiving-off developed cities, would find it easier to earn incentives. All this “gaming” could further dilute the pangs of separation.

How is this proposal likely to pan out politically? The BJP and its allies, like the Shiv Sena, with their strong urban, voter base, are likely to benefit from autonomous Metros. Regional parties, where there is a strong bi-polar power distribution today, as in Tamil Nadu, may also see some value in potentially avoiding the “winner takes all” default option today.  In West Bengal, hiving off Kolkata may appeal to all parties; the CPM, with its rural base, shouldn’t care; nor would the Trinamool, since they seem to be default successors to a dormant Congress. In Karnataka and Delhi, Metro separation can give impetus to “disruptive innovators” like the AAP and other clones, possibly led by the IT kings of Bangalore, which seek to build an alternative “non-political alliance” to the more traditional political parties.

Developing 100 SMART cities is a good move aligned with the philosophy of “co-operative federalism”. But even smarter is letting loose the Big Five Metros (BFM); Mumbai, to rival Singapore as a financial hub; Chennai to rival Hollywood and Chicago rolled into one as an arts and engineering hub; Kolkata to rival Hong Kong as the entre port for Nepal and China; Bangalore to rival Silicon valley and Delhi to rival Washington. The political fall-out of State protests is manageable and can be diluted with grants, to hold state governments harmless. The growth and jobs consequences are positive. The profiling of the Big Five, as public management innovators, can be rewarding. The “soft power” effect of the consequential reforms strategies can make a compelling story for the rest of India.

Change and reform is best implemented when it can be benchmarked nationally. The BFM, sprinkled across the four main regions of India, can show the way on tax reform; “value for money” investment management; responsive service delivery and performance-oriented human resource management- all of which are key constraints today.  

 

Hate and its adherents

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Hate is a powerful emotion. A sense of rejection, powerlessness, consistent negative discrimination or perceived persecution; any of these can invoke it. In India it is a common, albeit not a publicly expressed sentiment. But it lurks very close to the surface.

Who hates whom, is an easily answered question. But why the poor do not hate the rich remains a puzzle.

Whilst income inequality between the lowest income earner in the middle class (defined as a family of five earning more than Rs. 20,000/- per month) and the very wealthy is high and rising, what binds the rich and the middle class together is common aspirations.

My flat may be just a studio space and not a mansion. I may have only a cooler and not central air conditioning. I may travel by “reserved sleeper” rather than private jet. I may drive a scooter (with a Jaguar or a Mercedes logo on the front wheel cover) and not a Bentley. My family’s weekend outing may be to India Gate and not Chiang Mai but I empathize and fantasize with and emulate the very rich. We go to similar schools, read the same magazines and watch the same shows and movies. We wear the same clothes and have similar tastes and habits even if we do not have similar expense accounts. The “imitation rich” fit seamlessly, if sometime tenuously, into the world of the “real rich”.

In contrast the divide between the poor and the “rich and the middle” is deep and unbridgeable. Functional illiteracy is the killer, as is the absence of family safety nets for ill health, accidental death, fire or joblessness, which are often the involuntary entry points into a downward spiral of hopelessness or hate. The Naxalites earlier and the Maoists now, seek to politicize this incipient hatred of the poor for the oppressive rich.

But neither have succeeded. Blame it on our passive culture; the stickiness of traditional identities or on democracy which lets a murky light of hope shine through. Credit it to our bureaucracy and judiciary which, albeit creaky, still manage to crank out basic justice and fair play.  But the most potent reason why the poor do not hate the rich is because they have been skilfully taught not to.

They have been manipulated by the Indian elite, across caste, religion and region, to sublimate their incipient hate for the empowered rich into hate for the “other poor” who belong to a different caste, religion or region. This zero sum game appeals instantly. More for “them” means less for “me” and vice versa

Much of the notional “plurality” of Indian politics (regional; caste or religion based political parties) derives from this cynical use of “traditional identities” by politicians as electoral instruments to create “vote banks”. The result is an “empowered” group of elites in each caste; religion and region and in the many sub groups that coexist. In this three dimensional matrix Dalit/Christians/from the North are differentiated from Dalit/Muslims from the North. Ahirs, Kurmis and Jats view Dalits and each other, as competitors for state largesse. Sunni Muslims out maneuver Shias.  Bengal cannot see eye to eye with Tamil Nadu and Kashmir remains in splendid isolation.

Meanwhile, the elites of each of these groups share business interests; frequently co-habit; enjoy bonhomie and populate a common power network of amazing reach and strength. It is this trans caste, religion and region elite which has been the real gainers of Indian democracy, whilst studiously keeping at bay the real question- what is in it for the poor, of which around 70% (over 800 million people) earn less than US$ 2 per day.

The AAP has come closest to spontaneously mobilizing the disempowered. But post their “death wish” renunciation of power in Delhi their appeal has shrunk. It is now down to primarily the urban poor, who were justifiably impressed by the instant reduction in petty corruption and harassment, which had become the hallmark of State interaction with the disempowered in Delhi. But AAP is very far from being a party of national revival.

The Congress certainly has the latent potential. But it is constrained by the suffocating management control of the party, by the Nehru scions. Whilst they may deride Modi for sublimating the BJP in his own image, right down to his signature “white lotus”, one detects traces of envy. He has pipped them to the post, in their own game of “family takes all”.

This leaves the BJP as the only national party with some element of inner party democracy. However, their natural bias is towards the North and the West regions and within that to industry and trade. Also the direct linkage with the RSS does not help. A national party cannot be aligned to any one culture or religion and the BJP needs to travel a long road in that direction.

Modi shall be PM on Modi day- May 16, 2014. His incentive would be to remain PM till 2024. For someone, as savvy as him, surely the path to political longevity cannot lie through sectarian strife or caste wars. Yes, growth, jobs and better public services will be on his agenda but so must Kejriwal style, visible outreach and responsive security for the poor.   

 

 

Najeeb Jung shines

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By offering soft, warm, paranthas to Kejriwal to call off the AAP dharna, Jung, the new Lt. Governor of Delhi, has not only raised the culinary standards for political parleys but acted in a manner aligned to the high office he holds.

In sharp contrast is the behavior of the Government of India’s Ministry of Home. Leave aside the intemperate description of Kejriwal as mad by its minister…which Kejriwal, being Kejriwal, may well be willing to accept, in the same manner as he gladly accepted being termed an Anarchist. It is a sad reflection of how rusted the “steel frame” has become that apparently  the babus in the Ministry felt that Jung jumped the gun; that they could have “tired” Kejriwal out; that an “olive branch” of sending two cops on leave was an unnecessary concession.  

The problem with the Babus of today is that they cannot draw the line between the political objectives of their political masters and the obligations of the post they hold. It is not the job of the Home Secretary to improve the image of the Congress or rubbish that of the AAP. It is not the job of the police to promote political agendas.

Unfortunately, such fine distinctions between public responsibility and private gain are long gone and babus align with one or the other party to get ahead.

Till the proliferation of the Commissions, since the late 1990s (which are overwhelmingly staffed by retired IAS officers and judges), the highest prize a retired official could aspire for was becoming a Governor of a State. Unlike the President who has to be elected by Parliament a Governor is merely appointed by the Central Government; a safe non transparent process used for accommodating babus in possession of embarrassing secrets of netas; quid pro co for loyal services rendered in the past to political masters; parking slots for politicians past their expiry dates and such like. The net result is all incumbents of the post of Governor are agents of the central government. Two such ex-babu Governors are now media breaking stories because the CBI has sought the Presidents clearance to question them in the sorry story of the mis-procurement of AugustaWestland VVIP helicopters.

Governors, in general, are meant be benign observers, like the Queen of England. They don their Durga avtar when the Central Government decides to declare a state of emergency and dismisses a State Government. Effectively this transfers all powers upwards to the Central Government, which rules through the Governor.

The last time this happened was in 2002 in Uttar Pradesh. Mercifully, since then, the coalition dharma at the center has protected those on dharna from being summarily excluded from political power by the President.  

In Delhi the Lt. Governor rules directly since the Police and the Land Administration is with him nominally and actually, closely controlled by the respectively, the Home Ministry and the Ministry of Urban Development/DDA. The two powers are inextricably linked. Land and property is the safest and most lucrative refuge (with better returns than the stock market) for the loot from corruption.  You protect your wealth, power and status by controlling the police. It is no coincidence that till the Supreme Court directive the largest limousines had lal battis. The Lt. Governors real power comes from how close he is to the person calling the shots in Delhi.

Najeeb Jung may have acted on the direct orders of 10 Janpath, or its ancillary offices. However I prefer to believe that Jung acted out of a deep sense of responsibility, maturity and convention, in keeping with the sophistication his position requires.  Jung is here, with us in Delhi, till at least the election results are known. This is not the last dharna or street action he will have to deal with. It makes eminent sense for him to reach out to Kejriwal and establish a sense of trust and fair play with him. A democracy is functional only if political parties collaborate. We have not seen good examples of positive and responsible collaboration in the recent past. This is one shining example of the correct approach.

Jung has been a babu, an international civil servant, an academician and an actor. By his “warm parantha parley” approach, he has finally crossed the line and become a politician, whilst simultaneously remaining the gentleman and aristocrat that he is. This may, incidentally, also ensure his continuance as the Lt. Governor, even post 2014, since even handed and level headed Governors are scarce to come by. Who says God doesn’t reward good acts?

 

 

 

Corruption Red Flags and the Original Sin

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The Left has the best track record with respect to controlling corruption, followed by the BJP, with the Congress in the rear. Apologists of the Congress would be quick to assert that often corruption is part and parcel of rapid growth. They are right. China, Indonesia and Malaysia are good examples where rapid growth over the last 30 years has also resulted in large scale corruption.

Conversely, it is also true that an obsessive desire to end corruption, as projected by Kejriwal and the Aam Admi Party (AAP), also negatively affects growth. Even the NGOs and international development agencies know that corruption is like an original sin (the others being illicit sex, drinking and envy) and cannot be ended. It can only be managed, as in the developed world, so that citizens do not encounter it in their daily lives and public finances are conducted with relative probity.

Shanta Devarajan, a World Bank economist, known for his innovative take on economic problems, like Swaminathan Aiyer, pointed out in 2010 that “quiet corruption” (the kind that that the average citizen encounters) costs the economy much more than “grand corruption” of the 2G, Coal-gate kind.  http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/0,,contentMDK:22501207~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258644,00.html

“Quiet corruption” is the “rent” that a babu collects for delaying decisions (speed money); is a babu using her discretion to unfairly benefit someone (bribe); it is sending the government decision making process into a spin thereby benefiting someone who profits from the status quo (babu googly or red herring noting on file); it is habitually being averse to taking a decision (babu evasion).

The media reports (Indian Express, January 13, 2014) that Jayanthi Natarajan, the Environment Minister till recently, had stacked a huge bundle of files relating to clearances in her house. This instantly raises “corruption red flags”, at the very least, of “quiet” corruption.

What is odd is that of the 350 files returned to the office from her home, when she resigned, 180 files had not even been seen by her! at least there was nothing on file to indicate that she had. Even odder, she had seen and signed 119 files but had held them back in her home. Why and for what reason? An additional 50 files, signed by the Minister, were in possession of her staff!  Not reading files and keeping them in the “in tray” is a classic red flag for corruption hunters. Signing files but holding on to them is an even more significant corruption red flag. Letting her staff hang on to signed files is the biggest corruption red flag.

Despite the plethora of red flags it is a sign of low expectations from the present government that this case has not raised the kind of furor that coal-gate had. If a babe had committed these sins she would have been hanged by the government but when it comes to Ministers the rope is very, very long.

The BJP, which is the most likely party to form the next national government, or be instrumental in supporting a minority government, must draw the correct lessons, as must Kejriwal and the AAP.

First, just by ensuring that the offices of Ministers do not become clog-holes of files and insisting on time bound dealing of files, by everyone in the chain, corruption can be hugely reduced.

Second, Sarkari corruption hunters like the CVC and now the Lokpal must zero-in on cases of frequent submissions of files and reversion with queries, the favourite babu trick of avoiding a decision.

Third, it is high time, India, at least at the national level, abandoned paper files for electronic functioning as in any other modern day country. Electronic filing and processing has the advantage of security; instant file tracking; generation of management information on “clog-holes” of undealt files; audit of who accessed the file at what time and the changes made therein.

Fourth, the advantage with digitizing government functioning is the heightened levels of seamless transparency which become possible. Managing the information requirements of the Right to Information Act will become a lark with complete digitization, since all it would require is to find the data and email it or print it out.

The economy needs a kick start. What better way than to target complete digitization of government functioning from 2016. The international experience shows that corruption levels drop precipitously when “big brother” is watching as is possible in real time electronic processes. Of course this only works in regimes where “big brother” himself is not corrupt.  

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