governance, political economy, institutional development and economic regulation

Posts tagged ‘Arvind Kejriwal’

Delhi voters slap AAP on the face

modi kejriwal

The Lion of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, has been bearded in his den. The BJP’s massive victory in all three municipalities in Delhi — North, South and East — has left everyone flummoxed. However, it wasn’t all one way. The AAP held onto their seats as per the outcomes of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in the South MCD. But it lost seat share in both the North and East MCD to the Congress. In both areas, it seems there was a “ghar-wapsi” (homecoming) of traditional Congress supporters, who had fallen prey to the AAP’s promise of transformation in the 2015 Assembly election.

Delhi State merely a jagir of the Union Government

anil baijal

Anil Baijal, Lieutenant Governor – the invisible satrap of Delhi

The forceful return of the BJP can only be attributed to the TINA (there is no alternative) factor. The confrontational politics of the AAP, which burnt its boats and utterly failed to establish a harmonious working relationship with the Centre, proved costly. Delhi is a Union territory, but with a twist — like Puducherry. Both have a Legislative Assembly that elects a chief minister. But it’s biggest asset — land — is directly controlled by the Union government, as is the police force and the civil service. The lieutenant-governor is the de facto ruler of Delhi state, and he plays to the tune of the Centre, which appoints him. Not all the hugs and shared parathas between the former L-G Najeeb Jung and Arvind Kejriwal could bridge this basic gap in political alignment. The new L-G, Anil Baijal, also follows the same route, an inevitable outcome of the fractured institutional arrangements in Delhi. Only if the same party rules the Centre, state and municipalities can this alignment be matched. This is not possible till 2020, when the next Delhi Assembly elections will be held.

Kejriwal can save AAP in Delhi by stepping down as CM

manish sisodia

Can things change even before 2020, if Arvind Kejriwal resigns, admitting he has lost the mandate to rule? This might be a canny move, and put him on the high moral ground. Ajay Maken, the face of the Congress in Delhi, has already resigned, even though his party made some gains in contrast to the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 Assembly results. The AAP has ambitions in Gujarat. The outcome of the recent Punjab polls should have taught Mr Kejriwal a lesson — that being an itinerant leader is only possible if one’s family is part of the political elite and has spent almost a lifetime in politics. A good showing in Gujarat would be a good base for enlarging the AAP footprint into the metros in Karnataka and Maharashtra. Left to himself, Manish Sisodia is a diligent leader with balance and the tenacity to show results, on the ground, in Delhi. More roads and flyovers built at less than the budgeted cost; more mohalla clinics and better services in the slums of Delhi is a painstaking job for an executive, not a charismatic dreamer.

Modi is the king of referenda politics

The Delhi municipal elections reinforce that charisma and shock and awe tactics work wonders. Like everywhere else, since 2014, these elections were fought in the name of Narendra Modi versus Arvind Kejriwal. In a costly tactical error, the AAP sought this face-off as a referendum. Clearly, Arvind Kejriwal has much distance to travel before he can be measured in the same metric as Prime Minister Modi.

Amit Shah is a one-man school for electoral management

The Modi-Amit Shah duo’s trademark electoral tactics of “placing” the right man to lead the Delhi BJP has paid off yet again. Manoj Tiwari, a Bihari actor, has a natural entry point into the significant voter pockets of recently-domiciled Puravanchalis — slang for immigrants from UP and Bihar. An outsider to the more traditional set of Delhi BJP powerbrokers, Mr Tiwari was also the least likely to invite backstabbing, unlike the hapless BJP late-entrant candidate Kiran Bedi, who lost the 2015 Delhi state elections. In any case, Mr Shah’s style of watertight oversight, now honed over half a dozen polls, precludes any dissent within the BJP now.

“dhili” Congress unravelled in Delhi

Compare this targeted “placement strategy” of the BJP with the Congress, which failed to rally its troops behind Delhi leader Ajay Maken. Arvinder Lovely, a Sikh leader, deserted the party for better pickings with the BJP. Manoj Tiwari’s counterpart in the Congress is Sheila Dikshit and her son Sandeep Dikshit. They have familial links to the Purabaia community via the late Uma Shanker Dikshit, Ms Dikshit’s father-in-law, who was a venerated UP politician of the independence movement era. Ms  Dikshit, Delhi’s chief minister for 15 years, from 1998 to 2013, was sidelined, possibly due to infighting between her and Mr Maken.

AAP – resource thin and exhausted post Punjab disappointment

AAP workers

If disjointed leadership cost the Congress dearly, the AAP suffered from electoral exhaustion; a dwindling bench strength and failing credibility. Arvind Kejriwal held out the ultimate bait — a promise to abolish property tax — to win over the middle class. This was the final nail in the coffin of responsible politics. Property tax is the primary source of revenue for all municipalities. Its abolition would spell financial ruin and even worse services than at present. In comparison, the BJP brings to the table the coffers of the Union government. The NDMC area, which is managed directly by the Central government, is a lush, green oasis for the gilded elite — the Lutyens people — in sharp contrast to the dusty, filthy Delhi, the rest of the national capital’s residents live in. The prospect of resembling the NDMC  area was a mouth-watering possibility that few voters would pass up.

Can Modi reproduce the well being of the NDMC area in the rest of Delhi by 2019?

NDMC2

Delhi has voted for the Modi magic to rub-off on them. The denizens of other metros may contest this, but Delhi best illustrates the diligent, aspirational and yet conflicted India — riven by caste, religious, regional and class cleavages. It is a ready crucible for implementing the PM’s vision of a prosperous, equal opportunity-oriented, highly skilled, healthy and sustainable India. Mr Modi is unlikely to disappoint.

Adapted fro the authors article in The Asian Age April 27, 2017 http://www.asianage.com/opinion/columnists/270417/delhi-gives-kejriwal-a-slap-in-the-face.html

 

A new “living wage” f0r Delhi

Populism, buttressed by dodgy economics, has become the fashion statement in politics. Last year, the Union government approved handsome “real” increases in government salary. There was little justification for doing so since the government salaries were already fully indexed to inflation and the largesse couldn’t have been justified as a reward for higher productivity.

The default justification was that more money in the hands of government employees would kick start a virtuous circle. Higher demand for goods and services would lead to expanded supply, more jobs and just possibly, more income for the rest of us.

AAP disrupts the cozy status quo in Delhi

This week, the Aam Aadmi Party government in Delhi, used similar tactics to grab eyeballs on Independence Day. Evoking the high moral stance of re-distribution of wealth and the economic principle of boosting demand as justification, the government declared massive increase in the minimum wage. In effect, it imposed a “living wage”, for workers in Delhi.

The impossible dream of “mandating” the end of poverty

Child searches for valuables in a garbage dump in New Delhi

The concept of a “living wage” — pegged significantly higher than the minimum wage — with an eye to decrease poverty has been used in over 100 urban jurisdictions in the United States since the late 1990s. It has also been used to set the national poverty level in India. But it is pegged at very low levels.

In Delhi, chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has proposed that the minimum wages of unskilled labour will be increased from Rs 9,500 to Rs 14,000, semi-skilled Rs 10,600 to Rs 15,500 and for skilled Rs 11,600 to Rs 17,000.

The hike seems unreasonable given that the minimum wage in Delhi is already 35 per cent higher than in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh and 72 per cent higher than in adjoining Haryana.

Delhi is rich but…

It is true that Delhi is relatively rich. Its per capita income of around Rs 18,300 per month is the highest among the states of India and the top 10 metros. Consequently, there is a case for setting the “living wage” in Delhi reasonably higher than in the neighbouring states, purely on the grounds of equity.

The real issue is whether a 47 per cent increase is warranted and how comprehensively should the “living wage” be applied? If it is applied just to the establishments governed by the Factories Act, then it is little more than populism. There are only around 8,000 such factories in land-hungry Delhi and employment in them is static.

If the intention is to enlarge the coverage of the “living/minimum wage” to all registered shops and establishments, which employ around 20 per cent (one million) of Delhi’s five million workers, then the economic consequences can be more substantial.

Mandated wages hurt business and make it shift out 

closed 2

Photo credit: blogs.ft.com

The negative impact will be felt in price-sensitive, low value-addition segments like clothing, food and household goods, where higher wages will hurt business profits. More importantly, will a similar “living wage” follow for the one million workers in the informal sector — household help in rich and middle class homes and in unlicensed small establishments? If so Delhi’s privileged elite and wannabes may have to look for a lifestyle change – let the ayah go and manage their own babies; cook for themselves or use an app to order in; make their own beds; wash and iron their own laundry and learn to use a vacuum cleaner. And what of the ubiquitous car drivers and guards who lounge around the front gate of Delhi homes? Will the well-off opt for Ola and Uber instead?

Poor enforcement can make mandated wage a sham

Mandated high minimum wages, far above the market rate, encounter three problems. First, enforcing payment of the mandated wages depends crucially on clean, clever and consistent regulation. In its absence, it encourages the petty but crippling, corruption of “inspector raj”. Enlarging the scope of inspector raj in Delhi, even as it is being diluted in Rajasthan and Telangana sends the wrong message to investment for increasing jobs and private sector growth in Delhi.

High wages result in loss of unskilled jobs

Second, studies from the US show that the benefits are not uniform across the entire spectrum of workers. On average, unskilled workers lose the most from a high minimum wage because employment declines even as a smaller number of workers, who remain employed, benefit from high wages. Mandated wages rarely benefit skilled workers. Governments tend to be conservative in fixing the differential for skills. Delhi provides only a premium of 21 per cent, or `80 per day between unskilled and skilled work. The market premium is already between 75 to 100 per cent. A mason gets twice the amount as his unskilled worker — often a woman, who does the manual work.

In-migration increases fiscal pressure to provide public services

migrants 2

High, mandated wages attract in-migrants to cities. photo credit: http://www.rediff.com

Third, pegging a price for labour far above the market rate increases the fiscal burden. This happens directly when government salaries are needlessly enhanced. But it also hits the government budget indirectly, when applied to the private sector. Higher the mandated wage for unskilled work the more attractive it becomes for migrants. With open borders, no control on migration and the Delhi government committed, rightly so, to provide a basic quality of life for all — free water, free medical care, free education, cheap electricity, improved toilets and paved roads — the resulting fiscal impact can be crippling.

Immigrants reduce the market price of unskilled labour

One way of ensuring that market wage rates remain aligned with mandated wages and are not beggared by competition from in-migration, is to licence city workers, as in China. But it is difficult to do this effectively in a governance environment of pervasive corruption. Licensing is a one way street to inefficiency and corruption. If government land cannot be protected from encroachment by the mafia, there is little hope of implementing an equitable worker licensing regime. Railway stations are a good example. Try getting a licensed coolie to carry your bags at the stipulated rates and you are more likely to miss your train.

Test the viability first in government contracts

The high salary of unskilled government workers already provides a wage floor. But the incremental numbers employed are limited. The trend, since 1990s when the government adopted the practices of “new pubic management”, has been to outsource non-core services i.e. cleaning, canteen, security and office support. Worker productivity clearly increases under private management. But there is insufficient evidence that the wages paid to them reflect this higher productivity. The apprehension is that the workers will suffer from price competition to get government contracts.

This is a perverse and unintended outcome. Tightly regulating the private contracts that are funded by the government can ensure that the mandated wages are passed through to workers. And contractors do not corner the wage increase. This is how the financial viability of the enhanced wage rates should be tested before imposing them.

But there is little point in cultivating a small, handsomely paid labour “aristocracy”, as the CPI(M) did, whilst throttling investment and employment.

CPIM

Adapted from the author’s article in Asian Age August 19, 2016 http://www.asianage.com/columnists/how-viable-are-hiked-wage-rates-333

President Hollande’s musings on India

You have to hand it to the French. They look effortlessly stylish- think Christine Lagarde, the French Managing Director of the IMF.

lagarde

Even when they wear plain work clothes they come encased in an inherited frisson of elegance- the 1789 French revolution, it seems,  diffused aristocratic elegance more evenly rather than destroying it all together, as in Russia. But scratch the coiffed surface and an au natural savage surfaces, readily comfortable with the oddities of humanity existence – cigarette smoke, food smells, passions and emotions. This being the one real French connecion with India.

It is not surprising them that art, fashion and spiritualism constitute areas of instant rapport between Indian and France.

Amrita sher gill

Indian artists- Amrita Sher Gill in the early part of the 20th century; Fashion and art ace photographer Prabudda Dasgupta towards the latter half;

Prabuddha Dasgupta

and current enfant terrible of the fashion world- Manish Arora all made Paris their karambhoomi (home away from home)

manish arora

But art and fashion were far from President Hollande’s objectives. So what were the  first impressions from his three day, Indian safari

Hollande 1AIt must have struck him that there is no easy familiarity between the French and Indians. It goes beyond the language barrier. At the heart of the difference is the romantic, liberalism of the French, naively combined with a deep allegiance to preserving their culture. In India, traditional ways are so deep a social barrier for two thirds of Indians that the great hope is for rapid urbanization and industrialization to erode the embedded biases against women, the poor and the marginalized. Disruption rather than continuity is the order of the day in India today.

Too shy to Bhangra?

This difference showed, he must have ruefully thought. There was no spontaneous affection between the visiting French and the Indian people, unlike, he ruefully pondered, what was powerfully on display when Bill Clinton danced the Ghoomer with Haryanvi villagers in 2000. Nor did the French capture hearts and minds, in the manner Michelle Obama did last year, with her ready laugh and radiating warmth.

French President in Chandigarh

The French are formal people and their Presidents do not go around grabbing babies or unknown dancers. The familiarity never extends beyond a glacial airbrush, double kiss. Elegance, grace and exclusive glamour is the French game and it was played well, in Delhi, as President Hollande supped with the beautiful people.

Beautiful people

But the President banished such negative thoughts as he slipped off his shoes- hopefully made in France, unlike his spectacles. Sinking into the warm familiarity of his customized Airbus A 300-200, whilst reaching languidly for his favorite seafood aperitif and a well-deserved glass of French wine, he rooted around for “learnings from India” as all diligent leaders must.

Indian state 2

The brooding edifice of the Indian state

His overriding emotion was of envy at how solidly the State is in control in India and how deeply stabilizing is the role of our elites. Delhi, a city state of 10 million people was effortlessly turned into a fortress by 60,000 security personnel. It worked without a hitch. Compare this with Paris, where even his delegation may have had difficulty in getting a cab back home on arrival, because taxi drivers were on strike against the ubiquitous Uber’s entry into France. If only, the President must have thought, I had more Indians in France, things would work better.

Illusions are the reality

Second, he brooded over the new Indian Rope Trick by which diversity and tradition are kept alive as a fond memory- a static picture in the head- whilst the real life incentives are all to become part of a national mainstream. The colorful floats, the folk dancers and the serried rows of soldiers- all marching in age old regimental silos in a manner reminiscent of 19th century India- all serve to highlight that they have transcended traditional cleavages. That their nationalism is not about one dress; one food; one drink, one language. It is something deeper and visceral. The President shook his head. Such flippant, multi leveled, varied allegiances to social norms would never do in France, where one culture is the leitmotiv of nationalism.

Social stability and change

Third, President Hollande mulled over the resilience of the feudal order in India, albeit mutated away from ancient entitlements to merit based access to State resources, with family and clan networks, patrimony and inherited wealth as the currency of convening power. Quite like Africa he must have thought.

He smiled at the contrast between the muffler clad, “peoples”, Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, with his socks insolently peeking through his open sandals loping around to be noticed at the Indian Presidents party and the haughty power exuded by the powder blue, baby soft, finely embroidered Kashmiri shawl, wrapped around a seated Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, like an impregnable cloak of influence.

Give me some air please

Fourth, he coughed as he felt the the smog and pollution which had literally taken his breath away. Despite the chirpy commentary on Republic Day, which ignored the oppressive mist and spoke joyfully of the bright skies, he could smell the smog through the glass screen and feel one’s throat constricting. Nuclear power, the President thought, is what India needs and the French can provide.

Money, money, money…

Fifth, the business potential warmed President Hollande’s heart. But could French business, used to high margin deals and troubled with low cash reserves work in the price sensitive Indian markets. Indians worry about the cost of fuel whilst buying a Porsche. How, the President, thought, can I make French business nimble and lean like the Chinese or the cash flush Japanese who casually drop down investment in dollops of $10 billion. How to shake the French industrial aristocracy out of their complacence?

Instant graphics

Sixth, Hollande reflected over how good Indians were at escaping into selective retention- their movies, our politics, our social norms all pay obeisance to this particular facility. They have retained Gandhijis spectacles-on top of a tractor float, as a symbol but discarded the topi; simplicity; erudition and the open windows of his mind. They air brush reality at will. Goa, it seems from their float, is a paradise of saree clad Indians dancing decorously to undistinguished folk music. But is that is the culture more than 1 million Indians and foreigners go to see over Christmas and New Year! What about the week long carnival of eclectic music; 24X7 partying; food for the mind, soul and spirit and sociable company right there on the redolent beaches! How lucky India is, Hollande thought. If only he could similarly airbrush away France’s social upheavals with just one master stroke of graphics!

The soothing ambience of his air-home away from home, relaxed the President. His beguiling, spaniel eyes drooped in weariness. His horn rimmed, foreign made spectacles slipped off. As he turned over he surrendered himself to the muted, distant roar of a Lion electronically mixed into the soothing, lapping sounds of the waters of a swachh Ganga- must build bridges around water was his last thought.

fly past

Prime Minister Modi smiles whilst President Hollande strains to find a French aircraft in the fly past finale- Republic Day, New Delhi, India, January 26, 2016

1148 words

Taming Terror

terror

(photo credit: guns.com)

An inequitable sharing of power and the “glass ceilings” of “closed order” societies, devised to keep the status quo intact, are ripe pickings for terrorism.

Apologists of terror focus on this underlying social explanation for the breeding of terror. But this is cold comfort for the victims of terror who, generally, are as ordinary and as excluded, as those perpetuating terror.

In fact hurting the average citizen is the intended consequence of terror.  The intention of the terrorist is to shatter the credibility of the government’s ability to preserve the rule of law.

The UN Declaration of Human Rights 1948 is a verbose document assuring all manner of Human Rights through its 30 Articles. Of these, the most critical are Articles 3 to 5 which relate to the Right to Life; Freedom from Slavery and The Right against Torture. It is these three which are the primary targets of terror.

Democracy disappoints

Through the second half of the Twentieth Century the anticipated social leveling through the spread of Democracy and since 1990 the economic benefits from Globalization were expected to take away the breeding ground for terror. Sadly this has not happened.

Democracy perversely marginalizes and excludes many, even as it empowers others. In India lower castes have gained through a policy of positive affirmation but religious minorities have lost out. It is all a numbers game with a huge political incentive to encourage identity (religion; ethnicity; caste; culture) politics. In this polarizing game those who have the majority win and the rest lose or are forced to become subaltern partners in governance.

Economic growth an incomplete answer

The notion that growing economic well-being can bridge the divisiveness of culture and identity has been shattered repeatedly. Germany was a rich nation just prior to the World War II but demonized the Jews. British and French kids today join the Islamic State even as the ethnicity obsessed, Right in Europe is resurgent by making immigrants the “fall guys” on whom to pin the woes emanating from the fiscal excesses of the go-go years of the first decade of this century.

Monitored executive discretion can help

Centralized, authoritarian regimes like China seem best placed to manage terror for the simple reason that they have plenty of monitored, executive discretion, which is the key ingredient whilst fighting those who live in “shadows”.

Terror is spread by highly trained and motivated cadres who are rigorously monitored and mentored.  They can only be stopped by a similar cadre. The Israelis know this and that is why they are so successful at surviving in the toughest neighborhood in the World.

But Democracy by definition undercuts executive discretion. Transparency, Open Data and Citizen Voice- all off-springs of the Good Governance framework popularized since the late 1990s, similarly constrain executive discretion.

The most dramatic illustration is the public rebuke given by the Republican controlled Senate to President Obama’s initiative to “socialize” radical Iran by negotiating a nuclear agreement with it. This is a departure from the “norm”, which gave significant leeway to the US President to negotiate Foreign Policy initiatives. We are fortunate that the Indian Prime Minister is not constrained in this manner since Agreements with Foreign Nations are not subject to Parliamentary approval and the Executive has considerable discretion in managing Foreign Affairs.

With both Economic Development and Democracy proving to be unlikely bulwarks against terror what then remains as a cogent strategy to manage this scourge?

Four initiatives present themselves.

First, reduce inequality. This is important because much of it, particularly in developing countries, is the result of massive corruption. This is visible in the workplace; in life styles and in the resource endowments that some people inherit. What can be done about it is less certain. The best, but somewhat dissatisfactory strategy is to constrain the government’s budget to the very minimum, whilst striving to get the biggest bang for the buck. Big governments are bad news. Small, nimble governments are in.

Second, adopt open access structures: The challenge is not to “pull down” the rich by taxing them (France tried but failed) or by banning the consumption of luxury goods (luckily the French view fine wine and cheese as a necessity). The challenge is to open access to good education, health, social protection and formal, private sector jobs based on merit.

Third, Role Models matter. “Open access” systems are not created overnight.  Open access is more than a physical process. As Tagore said it is the mind which has to be opened. Role models are key in building such societies.

One such role model today is Arvind Kejriwal who emulates the entrepreneurial, mass-movement based political principles of Bapu (Mahatma Gandhi).

PM Modi presents the other, more “muscular” model of the dedicated, organizational man who claws his way to the top by pure grit and guile- very similar to what happens in an American Corporate and the Communist Party of China.

Both role models represent an open access system in operation. For Chief Minister Kejriwal the “entry point” was the Constitutional provisions for pluralism in political parties. In Prime Minister Modi’s case, it is the meritocratic structure of the RSS and the BJP.

That “open access meritocracies” are the best bridge to socialize Radicals, Fundamentalists and Discontents is best illustrated by the recent teaming up of the “Islamist” leaning, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed with the Hindu Right-BJP to form a government in Kashmir. Neither party wears “secularism” on their sleeve but both represent the middle class and that is their biggest glue. In comparison, the National Conference of Kashmir and the Congress are both dynasties run by political aristocrats.

Fourth, grow the middle class. The key to kill terror is to grow the middle class by investing in formal, private sector jobs and state funded, but privately provided, education, health and social protection facilities.

Keeping people productively busy and cruising the “basically comfortable” income frontier is important. Time to restructure the government workplace by opening it up to external skills (they exist in India believe it or not!); balancing worker rights with worker responsibilities and decentralizing authority widely, including to non-state actors thereby co-opting them into governance, so that the “pie” is widely shared.

Capitalism centralizes income and wealth. The government must use its fiscal resources to re-distribute it wisely.

The budget of small things

jaitley 2015

(photo credit: dailymail.uk.co)

February is when the Indian Finance Minister (FM) gets flooded with unsolicited help from well-wishers on how to get his job done of presenting the Union government’s annual budget on the 28th.

This time, the flood is a Tsunami as a consequence of the Delhi state assembly electoral debacle for the BJP on the 10th February. Some fears are imagined. Others are real.

BJP only for the rich?

The BJP has traditionally been a party which works well with the private sector. If viewed through a “zero-sum” filter, this strategy could be perceived as working against the immediate interests of the poor. The classic example is whether electricity supply should be subsidized and if so to what extent and in what manner and whether the private sector’s bottom line concern for profitability can be consistent with an electricity subsidy for customers?

The “Davos mafia”- banks, big business and “growth” fundamentalists are keeping a hawks eye on everything the FM now says to detect signs of his wavering from the hard path of economic reforms announced by him last year. Their expectation is that he will resort to “populism” to placate the poor, with an eye on the nearing state elections in Bihar.

Will Bihar drive the budget?

The BJP cannot afford to lose Bihar. Doing so will surely crack the political invincibility of PM Modi. Some believe it is already dented by an ill-advised, last minute tactic in Delhi of pitting the PM versus Kejriwal, even though it was known as early as January 15th when the elections were announced, that the BJP was unlikely to win.  None of this environment is of the FMs making. But it hampers him greatly in being bold, outspoken and visionary on economic reforms- as he has shown an inclination to be.

Statistical flights of fantasy

It does not help that the Indian Statistics establishment has further queered the pitch by an ill-timed release of a new formula for calculating GDP which shows that the UPA government was doing fairly well on growth (6.9%) even in its last year (2013-14) accompanied by reduction in the trend rate of inflation (consumer price index) to 9.5% from 10.2% the previous year.

This raises the bar for the FM in FY 2015-16 to unrealistic levels in growth (>8.5 %?) and possibly also inflation expectations (<5% ?).

The dilemma of the FM is that if he follows a tough approach to economic efficiency he gets branded as heartless and gutless if he doesn’t.

Privatization can soften the subsidy cuts

Privatization of our clunky 277 publicly owned industrial companies; poorly governed 7 public insurance companies and 27 banks is a no-brainer to calm both the heart and the gut of the FM.

The share of publicly owned companies in the Indian stock market capitalization is 48%. If more of them were publicly listed this proportion would increase further.

The capital gains from privatizing- selling at least a 50% plus 1 share in publicly held equity to private investors is sufficient to meet the existing annual aggregate subsidy outlay of around Rs 4 lakh crores (USD 66 billion) for the next five years till 2020 with linked fiscal benefits from tax revenue on higher growth and profitability of these entities. Associated economic benefits like more jobs and employment would be additional.

The FM has the choice of either being fiscally profligate or remaining cautiously courageous whilst perturbing the entrenched interests which feed-off the public sector; a small proportion of unfit employees who would lose their secure jobs; petty contractors who have developed a nexus with public sector contracting authorities and Trade Union leaders. None of these are part of the 300 million poor people of India. Nor are they part of 90% of the workforce, which operates in the unorganized sector as contract labour.

The FM would be well advised to err firmly on the side of “financeable equity”. This objective points him to generate additional revenues to finance selected tax breaks and subsidies.

Here are three suggestions that could set the tone of the FY 2015-16 budget.

Metric of administrative efficiency

First, the FM should announce that this government intends to demonstrate its credentials of being an efficient administration by collecting more revenues from the existing taxes despite offering selective tax relief. This fits well with the already publicized drive against “black money” and the return of undeclared foreign assets of Indian national, residents.  This also reassures tax payers that the government intends to retain stability and predictability in the tax regime.

There is nothing like burning ones bridges to bring out the best in oneself. The FM did this last year by taking up the challenge of meeting a 4.1% Fiscal Deficit target for this year and 3.6% of GDP for the next. He should carry through this resolve now without opting for the “lazy” alternative of using the new, inflated GDP data to project a rosy revenue estimate.

Surplus income with small tax payers boosts demand

Second, the FM should demonstrate the government stated preference for “small government”; private finance lead investment and the market.

One equitable way of doing this is to leave more income in the hands of the small tax payer by increasing the income tax-free level from Rs 2 Lakhs per year (USD 3300) to Rs 5 Lakhs (USD 8200). This simple measure takes 90% of the existing assesses (around 29 million in numbers) out of the tax net but impacts only 10% of the revenue.

Pancaked, indirect taxes on consumption (customs/excise; sales tax; municipal taxes) drain 50% of the disposable income of such tax payers in any case, so there is an equity view point also along with the argument for the greater efficiency of a more focused and selective tax effort.

Increase tax revenue equitably and efficiently

India’s tax revenues need to be increased by at least 1% point of GDP but not by continually “milking” the narrow tax base available historically. This approach is neither efficient nor does it build political credibility amongst the tax victims –the salaried middle class. Imposing a new, low tax with a huge tax base as on stock or commodity market transactions and siphoning off a part of the windfall due to the crash in oil prices could be two such option.

Extending income tax to the creamy layer with huge agricultural assets on a presumptive basis is a must. Tax free agricultural income is the easiest refuge for rebranding “black money” as “white”. This loop hole needs to be stamped out.

Agricultural income tax is a tax resource reserved for the State governments. But the Union Government could incentivize States by offering a higher share of GST to states willing to introduce agricultural income tax. This would be in the spirit of efficient, equitable, cooperative federalism.

Third, the Jan Dhan Yojna for financial inclusion has opened 125 million new bank accounts during the last few months. The bulk of these accounts remain dormant. But despite such caveats, this is a good scheme. Recent work, including by Thomas Piketty illustrates that personal wealth is the biggest asset in incremental wealth creation. Why not extend then, albeit in a small measure, the key to wealth creation to the poor also?

Endow the poor for wealth creation

Dhan” (wealth) is an asset-something you own. It is a pre-condition for wealth creation. Why not open bank or Post Office accounts for the poor also? Of course the poor have no surplus to put into a bank. But the government can fill this gap by depositing Rs 10,000 (USD 164) into each of the bank accounts of all “poor” account holders as a 10 year fixed deposit from which only the interest income would be available to the account holder till maturity. To narrow the ambit and the financial implication of the scheme initially, only poor women and poor senior citizens (the most marginalized of the poor) could be eligible.

Fiscal fundamentalists will deride this measure as irresponsible in an environment when subsidies have to be contained, if not reduced. There are two reasons why their apprehensions are unfounded.

First, the small value of the deposit and its unavailability for withdrawal for 15 long years reduces the attractiveness of the scheme for would be scammers. The annual interest earned of Rs 800 (@8%) per account is not enough to attract fraud but sufficient to keep a genuinely poor person interested in the account as a source of additional income. For the Bank this provides a pool of valuable long term resources for their Treasury operations.

Second, the fiscal outlay, whilst significant, is not unmanageable. The likely pool of “poor” women and senior citizens would be around 200 million. If full coverage is targeted over a three year period, an annual budgetary allocation of around Rs 70,000 crores (only 18% of the existing aggregate allocation for subsidies) would be required. The spread effect, both political and economic, is hugely significant.

In comparison, the Union government alone spends an estimated Rs 4 lakh crores (USD 66 billion or 4 % of GDP) on subsidies. Much of this outlay is either lost in transit to the beneficiary (as in food subsidy- refer to Ashok Gulati, India’s brilliant agricultural economist) or the targeting of the subsidy is so vague (fertilizer and energy subsidies) as to benefit the poor only marginally. A “wealth and income transfer” scheme aided by the Unique Identification mechanism, where available, is likely to be more efficient and effective.

The recent developments in Southern Europe and now in Delhi should convince Mr. Jaitley that “demonstrated equity and inclusion” as a “brand” is in. Citizens do appreciate a tough “reforms” stance. But it must be balanced by effective instruments for income transfers to the poorest of the poor.

Why the BJP will lose- Delhi State elections 2015

sadhu

(photo credit: freepik.com)

There are three reasons why the AAP shall succeed in holding off a BJP government in Delhi.

BICKERING IN THE DELHI BJP

First, the debilitated state of the Delhi BJP unit for which the malfunctioning mike at PM Modi’s election rally on January 10, 2014 was an apt metaphor. PM Modi or his alter ego Amit Shah have not had the mind space to redress what ails it: intra-fighting, lackluster leadership and just sheer inefficiency. These short-comings do not go unnoticed by the demanding and discerning BJP supporters in Delhi. They showed how lukewarm they were during PM Modi’s recent 10th January election rally in sharp contrast to the upbeat mood, way back in March 2014, when Modi first rode into Delhi as the BJPs PM candidate.

In contrast Kejriwal and his team are a chastened lot- apologetic about their earlier blunders; better honed for politics; eager to please and reach out to Delhi voters with a campaign strategy of individualized and personal interaction and long term relationship building which appeals instantly. With the Congress in retreat and tacitly backing AAP-their ideological ally- an AAP surge is certain.

SAFFRON SELF GOAL

Second, the aggressive Hindutva campaign and the indiscipline of the saffron clad BJP ranks, who frankly sound like they belong in the 18th century, with their calls for increasing the production of Hindu babies; a return to the “traditional” subservient role of women in Hindu families and the obsession with religion. India is a religious country and most Indians believe in God and practice a faith. But we do not want to impose our faith on others. Nor do we want others to impose theirs on us. Mutual respect with complete freedom of choice for believers is the Indian social mantra of long standing. All faiths proselytize. But it does not have to be done in a grandstanding and confrontationist manner designed to make headline news. True and efficient Missionaries do not try and get brownie points by advertising what they do.

Departing from the development script immediately risks losing the minority- read Muslim 12% and Christian 1%- vote entirely and alienating intellectuals, secularists and educated, aspirational women and a large segment of the upwardly mobile youth. This is the “self-goal” that the saffron clad leaders of the BJP have scored.

Some also read into this irrational indiscipline of the saffron clad crowd, the invisible hand of the wise men in Nagpur- the RSS.  PM Modi is very much his own man and not the typical RSS acolyte who will allow fuzzy theology to trump real achievements or threaten medium-term National objectives. His agenda is clearly development and this is what got him votes in the 2014 national agenda. He has gone from strength to strength and in the space of a mere one year, has become the sole voice of the BJP/RSS. Nagpur could not have liked that.

More importantly, those, over whose heads PM Modi elevated himself, have an axe to grind and an incentive to undermine him. Ensuring the BJP loses the Delhi poll aligns with this perverse objective.

MISALIGNED AGENDA

Third, the BJP has not reduced its image handicap of being perceived as the party of the rich. The erstwhile refuge of the poor-the Congress- has slipped into oblivion and that mantle has squarely been grabbed by Kejriwal. But it is not just a matter of perception.

The poor-the foot path vendor, small shop keepers, “auto” drivers, retired folk and Dalits (25% population) remember with nostalgia, the short reign of Kejriwal when he cracked down on the widespread petty corruption at the public interface level. In contrast the over 200 days of indirect governance by the BJP Union Government has seen an upsurge in petty corruption and disregard for the poor and the powerless in the Police, the Public Service Departments and the Municipal Corporation.

WHY SHOULD BJP CARE?

How big a blow will it be for the BJP to lose Delhi? Far from bemoaning this outcome the BJP should want to lose this election. There are three reasons for this contrarian view.

First, AAP is likely, at the very least, to be the main and significant opposition. The BJP will be hard put to keep up with the forensic oversight the AAP would unleash on the functioning of a BJP government in Delhi unless the Delhi unit is completely revamped. There is little chance of this happening since too much political capital needs to be invested for this with meagre political returns. This helplessness is best demonstrated by the inability of the BJP to reform the three Municipal Corporations it controls in Delhi. Hence the BJP has very little upside to lose in Delhi.

Second, an AAP government is likely to have the very same limitations it had when it last came to power; an uncooperative National Government controlling both the Police and Urban Development. Delhi is thirsting for more water but with a BJP government in Haryana (the source of additional supply) and a BJP National Government, an AAP government in Delhi will get no help in getting additional supplies. This indicates an AAP government is likely to underperform versus people’s expectations. So best to give them a long rope with which to hang themselves conclusively.

Third, PM Modi’s “A” team (Arun Jaitley-FM and Rajnath Singh-Home Minister) is getting awfully stretched. Big political battles are around the corner; Bihar end 2015 and UP a year later. There is also the job of getting on with routine governance; the nuts and bolts of managing the pipes that deliver public interest outcomes like investment; growth and jobs. Managing Delhi is a distraction the BJP could do without.

Of course the BJP does not have it in its DNA to take the low profile, strategic, sustainable path. Their forte is the “shock and awe” tactic. The focus is very much on glossy, big ticket items: grand new schemes and projects; a “strong Rupee; soaring stock markets; clever IT apps; outstanding oratory and a one-headline-a-day frenetic outreach schedule.

Time for the BJP to do a huddle and think its Delhi election strategy through. Having recently won the war (National Elections), losing a skirmish (Delhi) is ok if it results in winning the battle (Bihar & UP) to follow.

Avoid zero-sum political games

Image

The best thing about democracy is that it provides options to the zero-sum game where the winner takes all. Even the losers, in a democracy, retain their right to participate in decision making and benefit from state actions. We have seen too little democracy in India; the largest and the developing World’s best functioning democracy, and too many zero sum games being played.

One such game revolves around identity. Why is India still stuck in traditional identity models based on religion and caste? Babasahib Ambedkar’s big fear was that decentralization would further deepen these traditional identities by entrenching elite power, whilst centralized democracy, guided by more evolved minds, could pave the way to a more liberal future for the marginalized. The literature suggests that, perversely, centralized democracy has actually strengthened traditional identities across the board, rather than substituted them with more modern identities.

Dravida politics in Tamil Nadu; Dalit and backward caste politics in the North has led to political empowerment, which is welcome. But entrenchment of caste identity runs contrary to the aspirations of modernity, principally since caste is a non-meritocratic classification. One either belongs or does not. It bungs citizens into a static identity framework and denies them the right to choose and develop alternative non-traditional identities.

India inherited the Muslim “identity” issue from the colonial mindset, which used it to its advantage. The acrimony and violence of the partition strengthened the divide. But the “Hindu pride” movement of the BJP/RSS in the 1990’s sharpened the cleavage. Whilst provoking the less liberal it assuaged the guilt of the liberal Hindu and encouraged them to merge their Hindu identity with their politics. The Indian tricolor has both saffron and green. But Hindus rarely don the latter, whilst Muslims rarely use the former.

Sikh identity was just a mix of bravado, large heartedness, the absence of religious bias, a preference for chicken tikka and deliciously hot langar, available for anyone, in Gurudwaras. Till the events leading to 1984, Sikhs were integral to the Hindu tent. Today their children shave their beards to join and the Akali Dal is the dominant party in Punjab.

Focusing on identity, for short term political gain, is a zero sum game. Identity is the last refuge of political mediocrity. Parties, which are bankrupt in ideology and short on demonstrated success, are the ones most likely to use “traditional identity” as a means to gain political support.

Modi is demonstratedly keen to get away from the popular perception of being a “Hindu nationalist” but it is not easy unless the BJP dilutes its links with the RSS. Modi cannot win without the fringe Hindu and Muslim, urban vote. But the fringe voter is unlikely to support a deepening of traditional identity.

Muslims increasingly have an urban presence. They are functionally integrated into the lucrative, crafts based export and machining industry and pervasive in informal, skill-based employment thereby building social capital within urban communities. But outside Gujrat, Muslims view Modi only through the lens of Hindu identity politics.

Modi will, consequently, be denied a significant section of the urban vote, which should naturally have accrued to him since Modinomics is primarily, an urban vision. This illustrates the self-defeating character of identity politics. The decline of the Congress is another example of a self-goal. The Congress built its support based on identity politics since the 1970s. But once Muslims, upper caste Hindus and Dalits were weaned away by more efficient, identity based parties, the Congress floundered.

Unfortunately, India’s newest party; the AAP is also engaged in a zero-sum game. This game is about exposing the corrupt. Kejriwal must appreciate that voicing the demands of the Aam Admi does not have to be done in the shrill, make or break confrontationist form, he has adopted. It may get him media attention to denigrate Najeeb Jung, the courtly, Lieutenant Governor of Delhi, but it is unlikely to get him votes. Just as Mani’s diatribe against Modi’s chai serving past, has floored Mani, whilst elevating Modi.

Gandhi stood out as a negotiator by being an accomplished “incrementalist”, not by presenting a zero-sum fait accompli. What distinguished him, from those he led, was his ability to be firm but civil and eager to first explore if incremental change could happen, within the four corners of the existing law. Enacting a law is no assurance that the desired outcomes will follow. Making the enactment of a law as the fulcrum of a government’s achievement is the lazy politician’s route to populism and a zero sum approach to governance. We have lately seen too many such attempts.

Good governance is about problem solving at the margin, using stealth, guile and innovation with an eye out for maximizing value for money. It is not about proclaiming a grand vision of “total revolution”. What citizens value most, is the least disturbance to their daily lives and incremental but steady improvements in the quality of life. Supreme sacrifices by citizens to attain a vision call for conditions to be intolerable. The problem for the politicians of modern India is that life is not insufferable in India even for the poor. Democratic safety valves operate to keep the pot from boiling over. Had it not been so, the Communists and the Maoist would have realized their revolution long ago.

Please Arvind, you don’t need a multi-hull, state-of-the-art catamaran to navigate calm, inland waters. A simple canoe would do as well. Don’t hanker for a nuclear bomb to eliminate a few rodents.

 

 

  

 

 

 

Arvind Kejriwal: Disruptive Innovator

 

Disruptive innovation (DI) is a force multiplier in business and technology. Value creation is all about getting there ahead of the competition. DI annihilates the competition, not by doing the same things better but by doing them differently, thereby changing the rules of the game. The recent greats in this line of business are Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg.

The Mahatma and more recently Kejriwal, are our home grown disruptive innovators in the business of politics. Kejriwal’s tactics are uncannily Gandhian. Ram Guha would be well advised to jeep a close eye on him. A squeaky clean record based on public service; deft management of a mass outreach campaign and tactical choice of public interest issues. Whilst the two “big bulls” -BJP and Congress, are going hammer and tongs knocking each other out, Kejriwal is coasting to what is being rated as an outstanding electoral debut in Delhi. Erstwhile Aam Admis and Aurats who deserted him along the way, must be eating their hearts out and cursing their lack of political foresight.   

Of course Delhi is different and it is questionable whether Kejriwal’s tactics can be scaled up nationally. Still there are solid reasons why they could.

First, he is the only person in living memory who has stood up to Arnab Goswami’s harangue and given as good as he got. Last week Kejriwal cannily got onto a one-on-one “hard talk” with Goswami. When the time came for answering what the “nation” wanted to know, Arnab found only Kejriwal (as opposed to the usual circus of views to choose from) smiling sweetly at him, from behind his spectacles and pleading in an attractive, thin voice (similar to the Mahatmas) to please give him a chance to answer. Result knock out win for Kejriwal.

 

 

Second, Kejriwal is a babu with two decades of rich babu experience under his belt, and an additional decade now as a social activist, not a dyed-in-the-wool, clueless, “do-gooder”, like Anna. This makes him practical, administratively astute and flexible enough to be compatible with politics.

Third, there is a vacuum out there for sucking up the votes (young and old) fed up with poor governance and joblessness. Unfortunately, this vacuum exists primarily in urban areas and largely amongst the middle class who want to work their way upwards. This is quite different from the poor and marginalized in rural areas who are still acquiring the “escape velocity” to be sufficiently aspirational enough to demand opportunities for self-betterment. They are  yet to get beyond electoral gifts, like the NREGA and cheap food. Nevertheless, even the urban middle class accounts for around 120 million votes and (15% of the national vote). The key of course would be to leverage votes into seats through strategic alliances.

Kejriwal is likely to use Delhi as the testing ground for his brand before scaling up in 2014. He will also have to chart out whom of the two “bulls” he should support to form a government. One hopes he will not repeat the “historic blunder” of the CPI(M) in 1996 when it made itself irrelevant, by choosing not to lead the United Front national government. In the business of politics, when you get a chance, you have to play. It is only by playing that one chooses ones destiny. If Kejriwal chooses to “play”, as he must, he will have to keep his “young” flock of elected members in the incorruptible Gandhian mould, they are in today. Not an easy task, in the enticing “gallis” of Delhi.

He will need strong local collaborators in the states. The Kejriwal political machine may consequently look more like the Congress did prior to 1939; a coalition of regional forces and strong local leaders with a common brand identity. Of course there needs to be a good business reason for such political franchisees to hang together. Usually it is the future expectations from the brand value that keeps the flock together. The Kejriwal brand still has to be built.

The tool of self-denial (fasting) is passé. Irom Charu Sharmilla (Manipur) was on fast for almost two years against the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, but to no avail. More embarrassing was Chandrababu Naidu’s recent, short fast in Delhi and the subsequent desperate attempts by the faster to get someone to end the fast, so he could get on with life. Jagan Reddy’s competing short fast in Hyderabad got more press, but fasting as a political tool seems to have reached its expiry date.

Civil disobedience, Gandhi style, is incompatible with middle class aspirations. In any case the Indian State is so soft and yielding that beyond a short outburst of frustration (as in the Nirbhaya Rape case), continued agitation seems futile because the government looks even more helpless than the citizen. The favorite ploy of politicos and babus at parties, in plush Delhi homes, to which they are still invited, is invariably to play “victim” after the mandatory period spent listening to individual venom-spew or petitions, whilst usefully swiveling single malt all through.

Modi already occupies the “effective government” niche. Rahul is big on “religious inclusion and helping the poor”. This pushes Kejriwal into the boutique market for AAA concerns; urban jobs and livelihoods; succor from the land and slum mafia; social protection, especially for working women and children; targeted and speedy grievance redressal and the citizen’s need to have “reachable” leaders who live with the people they represent, whose families use the very same local facilities and who make a profession out of knowing their electorate.

Concrete steps in this direction would be AAP elected members to refuse government houses and the use of government cars and push instead for an allowance for all Delhi MPs and Ministers; once in power they keep the number of hangers-on, helpers and security at a minimal; expand outreach through social media and finally the adoption of a costed and feasible five year plan addressing no more than five key concerns of their boutique constituency. The “Bulls” pander to everyone and everything. Modi departed from this typically Congress strategy by not “appeasing Muslims” but got upped in the outreach war which projected it as exclusion, rather than even handedness. Kejriwal needs to focus his agenda for it to be credible.  

Start-ups with rapidly expanding “top lines” face the temptation of selling-out to global players. The AAP will likely be offered the same opportunities, if it is not already being wooed. Gandhi was pragmatic in taking what comfort came his way but steadfast in his objectives. Kejriwal needs to measure up to high standards. If he manages to do so it would probably be a first for a babu. We wait and watch. 

Wanted Political Principles

Image

The goonda raj, unleashed in Delhi from 1975, pulled the rug from under the principled politics of the previous three decades. Even the followers of Gandhian turned Socialist, JP Narayan and Lohiya succumbed to achieving ends without giving a thought to the means adopted, assiduously emulated and enhanced the bad practices of the sole national party of the times. This has been the leitmotif of politics since then and we are pretty much “adjusted”, as only an Indian aam admi or aurat can be, to corruption, dodgy political stratagems, nepotism and incompetence.   

 

Is this changing now? Some green shoots of the resurgence of “principle” are visible. Two key reasons are theorized here. First the new electorate is predominantly young. Young people are less influenced by rhetoric and tend to look towards real life models who walk the talk. Jay Panda the young Orissa politician, opposed the criminal bachao ordinance from the start, signaling his committment to principled politics. Modi comes across as another such role model, who reeks strength, effectiveness and moral integrity. The only chink, in his otherwise impregnable armor of personal, meritocratic achievement and state level development, is his ambivalence to the constitutional precept of insulating politics from religion.

 

Rahul Gandhi, for all his lack of experience and demonstrated competence, has shrewdly latched on to this chink and is hammering in the fact that he is personally and ideologically clean, has no religious preferences or hang ups and recognizes that religion and caste are the two main fault lines which need to be bridged. Rahul’s main chink is his political inheritance, which includes authoritarianism and dynasty (Indira Gandhi) and perceived corruption within his family (most recently the Vadra scam) while Modi has no such “familial” downsides.  

 

Can this dismal choice be fertile ground for the return of principled politics? Neither side will stake Principle above Power. However, symmetric steps on both sides may be agreeable to elevate the coming fight beyond the tired allegations of corruption and religious exclusion and enhance the stature of both leaders.

 

First, Rahul could publicly renounce his relationship with his compromised brother-in-law, thereby cutting away the latter’s incremental business potential and distancing himself from the dirt. This would also mean that Priyanka remains under wraps during 2014.  This “renunciation” of his family would elevate Rahul’s “principle” quotient. In return, Modi should publicly mourn the loss of lives in Godhra and strip dodgy characters away from his kitchen cabinet. Also he should pledge to cut down his fat. Have you noticed that BJP leaders tend to be fatter than Congress leaders and that they have become fatter over the last few years? This middle age spread dates them, in the eyes of the young, as people on the expiry path.

 

Second, Rahul should announce stricter proprietary norms within the Congress party than those required under the porous Representation of Peoples Act. In return Modi should pledge to give 15% of the BJP 2014 election seats to Muslims as a visible symbol of his commitment to secularism.

 

Modi loyalists would say that this bargain is better for Rahul. After all Indians are used to corruption and the sacrifice on Rahul’s part is trivial. However this “trivial” concession to propriety on Rahul’s part is accompanied by a very significant step towards cleansing the Congress of corruption.

 

Rahul loyalists would hold that the shedding of crocodile tears by Modi at election time is no sacrifice at all, since the Muslim sentiment is clearly not with him. However, this seemingly “trivial” concession is accompanied by the granting of BJP tickets to Muslims, in proportion to their population. A very major step for the BJP, towards becoming a secular party, as envisioned by the poet politician, Atalji.

 

Both sides are right and this is why these are two symmetric, symbolic but significant gestures which can elevate the election environment beyond corruption or religion. The big choice in 2014 is between (a) the BJP model of strong, centralized, executive led, economic growth and infrastructure development, with lower political levels managing social development and protection and (b) the Congress model of a mild central government, relying on pan-national consensus and periodic judicial guidance to push inclusive economic development.

 

The BJP path promises rapid growth and the reduction of income poverty but comes with the possibility of widening income inequity, the jettisoning of traditional occupations, cultural and social norms, the imposition of higher, change induced stress and social disruption. The Congress path is well known to Indians, as the fine art of muddling through whilst minimizing social disruption and retaining the status quo.

Our young electorate is likely to be quite confused by the choices offered. Jobs with social sacrifices like uniform codes and higher levels of adherence to the rule of law, on the one hand, or the continuation of multi model options on a self-select basis, but highly variable services and life styles across the country and a laid back “soft” State. Most voters are unlikely to be able to make an educated punt. They are likely therefore to go by the political symbols offered to them.

This is where the second reason for a return to principled politics becomes relevant. Voters can very easily detect the lack of sincerity, principle or commitment.  It’s all very well for the BJP to shout meritocracy and development for all but how does one explain the antipathy of the minorities (Muslims and Christians) towards them? The Congress extols social inclusion but by “excluding” development, it ends up offering only inclusive mediocrity and poverty. Rahul’s criticism of Behnji would go down better if he becomes “squeaky clean” himself. This is why the proponents of both strategies need to be personally clean and publicly committed, not only to their respective ideologies but also to serving the people of India without favor.  Jettisoning their unnecessary historical baggage can refine their respective images, help articulate these distinct strategies and attract a critical mass of supporters.

 

As Kalaripayattu dancers, gearing up for a fight, Rahul and Modi must limber up and improve their “teeth to tail” ratio. If they fail to do so, the NOTT (Neither Of The Two) vote will accrue to Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP (in Delhi) and state level parties elsewhere, who will then have the privilege of deciding, on behalf of the people of India, who should rule, thereby subjecting Indian democracy to the tyranny of the balancing few.

 

Tag Cloud

%d bloggers like this: